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First Thoughts: Three questions for Palin
From Chuck Todd, Mark Murray, Domenico Montanaro, Ali Weinberg
FIRST THOUGHTS:
*** Three questions for Palin: As Sarah Palin comes out with a new book this week, as she goes on a book tour (hitting some battleground states), and as she hints that she might run for president in a New York Times magazine profile, the political world finds itself in the midst of another round of Palin-palooza. Will she run for president? If not, what is she up to? While we're still not sure she actually runs (if she found the scrutiny of remaining Alaska governor too much, then she might not enjoy running for president or even being president), we've come up with three questions to determine if she's truly serious about being a successful presidential candidate. After all, almost anyone can run for president (see: Mike Gravel, Alan Keyes, Fred Thompson, even Rudy Giuliani). But being a successful candidate -- coping with the campaign's highs and lows, outlasting your opponents, and still appealing to a sizable portion of the country -- is another matter. http://broadcaster.msnbc.msn.com/t?ctl=2143C:B2CA5A050EF65E323F8FC44DF3FDE37C&
*** Does she broaden her appeal? First, does she broaden her appeal beyond her conservative/Tea Party base? Most successful presidential candidates --- at least at this point in the cycle -- are viewed more as uniters than dividers. Yet per a NBC/WSJ poll conducted earlier this fall, Palin is loved by conservatives (53%-19% fav/unfav) and Republicans (55%-17%), but not by Democrats (9%-73%), moderates (14%-62%), or independents (25%-55%). And in our most recent NBC/WSJ poll, which was released after the midterms, being endorsed by Palin was one of the more negative candidate qualities; in fact, it was worse than being endorsed by a labor union, than supporting allowing workers to invest their Social Security contributions in the stock market, and than supporting the economic stimulus.
*** Does she become more disciplined? Second, does she begin to be more disciplined? Since resigning her governorship last year, Palin has not only picked fights with the Obama White House and congressional Democrats -- but also with David Letterman, Katie Couric, Politico, the Wall Street Journal, and even some establishment Beltway Republicans. While that kind of combat can work for a political pundit or entertainer (like Rush Limbaugh), it's harder for an actual presidential candidate, who will be a target of slings and arrows from Democrats and the White House, from fellow GOP presidential candidates, and from the news media. "She gives as good as she gets," Mary Matalin told Robert Draper in his New York Times magazine piece on Palin. "But I don't know her well enough to know if she's developed the thick skin you need to be endlessly resilient, the way Reagan could take things for decades and let them roll off his back."
*** And does she expand her policy portfolio? Third, do we see Palin expand her policy portfolio beyond her wheelhouse -- energy, special needs, and neoconservative foreign policy? Recently, Palin weighed in on the Federal Reserve's action to pump more money into the economy (however, she mistakenly said that prices have risen over the last year or so when, in fact, inflation has been very low). There are two perceptions of Palin: One hits at what Lisa Murkowski said last week. ("You know, she was my governor for two years, for just about two years there, and I don't think that she enjoyed governing," Murkowski told CBS. "I don't think she liked to get down into the policy."). And the other is what Draper said of her. ("Less well known was the Palin who … was seen more than once passed out on her hotel bed half-buried in briefing books and index cards…"). But will somebody explain how she is helping herself to be taken more seriously when she's using her new book to talk about things like "American Idol"? http://broadcaster.msnbc.msn.com/t?ctl=2143D:B2CA5A050EF65E323F8FC44DF3FDE37C&
*** More numbers on Palin: Meanwhile, a brand-new Quinnipiac poll shows Palin leading a hypothetical GOP primary field at 19% -- followed by Mitt Romney at 18%, Mike Huckabee at 17%, Newt Gingrich at 15%, and Tim Pawlenty at 6%. But in the GOP field, Palin's negatives are the highest (36%-51% overall fav/unfav and 33%-54% among indies), while Huckabee (41%-25%) and Romney (38%-26%) are positive, and Gingrich's is negative (30%-43%); Obama is 48%-48%. And Palin also performs the worst in a head-to-head against Obama: Romney narrowly edges the president, 45%-44%; Obama leads Huckabee, 46%-44%; Obama leads the largely unknown Daniels 45%-36%; and Obama gets closest to 50% against Palin, whom he leads 48%-40%. http://broadcaster.msnbc.msn.com/t?ctl=2143E:B2CA5A050EF65E323F8FC44DF3FDE37C&
*** A better trip for Obama: Turning from Palin to American foreign policy, the NATO summit in Portugal was a very productive trip for President Obama. NATO endorsing major troop reductions in Afghanistan by Dec. 31, 2014 is a big deal. Yes, it's punting, but it's also an international coalition supporting the U.S.'s end game. So there's no second guessing outside the U.S. on this issue. The only second guessing will come from anti-war Democrats inside the U.S. And frankly, it's legitimate second guessing, but could the U.S. realistically pull out any sooner? The international community's answer: no.
*** If you START me up, I'll never stop: But Afghanistan was just one storyline in Lisbon; the other was the new START treaty. This is turning into a key political battle for Team Obama, and they know it. They got every European leader imaginable to go public this weekend supporting the treaty. Indeed, there's a real fear in the White House that if Sen. Jon Kyl and the GOP roll them on this, it will weaken the president on the world's stage. Right now, the White House is struggling to agree on a strategy to get this done. At a press conference over the weekend, Obama hit the Republicans for playing politics on foreign policy and national security. "This is an issue that traditionally has received strong bipartisan support," he said. "There's no other reason not to do it than the fact that Washington has become a very partisan place." But he dodged the question of whether Kyl is playing politics. "I've spoken to Sen. Kyl directly," he said. "Sen. Kyl has never said to me that he does not want to see START ratified."
*** Sooner rather than later: Here's a tip: Expect to see some more White House staff movement sooner rather than later. Nobody likes working in limbo, and this may speed up Pete Rouse and Valerie Jarrett, the two people other than the president himself who may know more about the re-arranging of the staff.
*** The uncalled races: Rep. Tim Bishop (D-NY-1) has come back to overtake Republican Randy Altschuler with counting of absentee and provisional ballots. That means of the five House races still uncalled, Republicans lead in two. They are currently +61 in the House and could get to about +63 -- if current numbers hold. The uncalled races: CA-11, CA-20, NY-1, NY-25, and TX-27. In CA-11 and CA-20, the Democrats appear to be on track to win narrowly. In NY-25, Republican Ann Marie Buerkle expanded her lead over incumbent Democrat Dan Maffei. And in TX-27, Blake Farenthold (R) continues to lead, as a recount requested by incumbent Solomon Ortiz nears completion. http://broadcaster.msnbc.msn.com/t?ctl=2143F:B2CA5A050EF65E323F8FC44DF3FDE37C& http://broadcaster.msnbc.msn.com/t?ctl=21440:B2CA5A050EF65E323F8FC44DF3FDE37C& http://broadcaster.msnbc.msn.com/t?ctl=21441:B2CA5A050EF65E323F8FC44DF3FDE37C& http://broadcaster.msnbc.msn.com/t?ctl=21442:B2CA5A050EF65E323F8FC44DF3FDE37C& and http://broadcaster.msnbc.msn.com/t?ctl=21443:B2CA5A050EF65E323F8FC44DF3FDE37C&
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OBAMA AGENDA: If you START me up, I'll never stop
The Washington Post: "Obama comes home from the NATO summit facing one of the most significant showdowns of his presidency: trying to win ratification of the New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (START) before the Senate adjourns in December. Jon Kyl (Ariz), the second-ranking Republican senator, said last week he did not think there was time to bring it up during the current lame-duck session. But Obama has forced the issue, reflecting Democrats' belief that if the treaty is pushed into next year, it could become a political issue for an emboldened Republican Party. The pact currently needs nine Republican votes to pass the full Senate but will need 14 next year." http://broadcaster.msnbc.msn.com/t?ctl=21447:B2CA5A050EF65E323F8FC44DF3FDE37C&
The AP: "President Obama took aim yesterday at Republican senators standing in the way of a nuclear arms reduction pact with Russia, saying they were abandoning Ronald Reagan's lesson of nuclear diplomacy: 'Trust but verify.'" http://broadcaster.msnbc.msn.com/t?ctl=21448:B2CA5A050EF65E323F8FC44DF3FDE37C&
The New York Times says that "while that Asia trip had mixed results, forcing Mr. Obama to leave without the South Korean trade deal he had expected, the consensus with Europeans and Russians at the NATO summit in Lisbon about how to handle Afghanistan and missile defense gave him a more successful sheen — even if ultimate success, particularly in Afghanistan, remains problematic." http://broadcaster.msnbc.msn.com/t?ctl=21449:B2CA5A050EF65E323F8FC44DF3FDE37C&
Warren Buffett says the Bush tax cuts should expire. http://broadcaster.msnbc.msn.com/t?ctl=2144A:B2CA5A050EF65E323F8FC44DF3FDE37C&
Caught between complaints that airport screening has become too intrusive and threats of new terror attacks on aviation, Obama administration officials say they are sensitive to criticisms that security measures go too far, but they are insisting that the measures now in place are justified by the risks," the New York Times says. "With the Thanksgiving travel crush imminent, the chief of the Transportation Security Administration, John S. Pistole, said in a statement that his agency would try to make screening methods 'as minimally invasive as possible.' But he gave no indication that the agency would reverse its move to full-body scanners, now deployed in 70 of 450 airports in the United States, and physical pat-downs for passengers who object to the scans." http://broadcaster.msnbc.msn.com/t?ctl=2144B:B2CA5A050EF65E323F8FC44DF3FDE37C&
"Asked if she would be willing to submit to an airport frisk, [Secretary of State] Clinton laughed and admitted, 'Not if I could avoid it. No, I mean who would?'" http://broadcaster.msnbc.msn.com/t?ctl=2144C:B2CA5A050EF65E323F8FC44DF3FDE37C&
The New York Post looks at the turkeys set to be pardoned by President Obama ahead of Thanksgiving. http://broadcaster.msnbc.msn.com/t?ctl=2144D:B2CA5A050EF65E323F8FC44DF3FDE37C&
Last year, we at First Read looked at the history of turkey pardons. President Truman is often incorrectly cited as the first to pardon a turkey. It appears President Kennedy was the first president to pardon a Thanksgiving turkey in 1963. Abraham Lincoln also spared a turkey, but it was one for Christmas. And here's video of last year's pardon. http://broadcaster.msnbc.msn.com/t?ctl=2144E:B2CA5A050EF65E323F8FC44DF3FDE37C& and http://broadcaster.msnbc.msn.com/t?ctl=2144F:B2CA5A050EF65E323F8FC44DF3FDE37C&
CONGRESS: DADT report coming
"Defense Secretary Robert Gates is instructing his staff to accelerate by one day the public release of a yearlong study into the implications of repealing the ban on openly gay people serving in the military," The Hill reports. "That study, initially due Dec. 1, will now be ready for release on Nov. 30 to allow the congressional defense committees to hold hearings on the report as soon as possible." http://broadcaster.msnbc.msn.com/t?ctl=21450:B2CA5A050EF65E323F8FC44DF3FDE37C&
GOP WATCH: Enter Maria Cino
Politico writes, "Former Bush administration official Maria Cino has created a 527 committee for an increasingly likely bid to become the RNC chairman, POLITICO has learned. Cino filed papers to create "Maria for Chairman" Friday with the FEC, a move that will let her raise and spend money in a campaign to take over the national party. http://broadcaster.msnbc.msn.com/t?ctl=21451:B2CA5A050EF65E323F8FC44DF3FDE37C&
2010: DeMint supports Miller's legal moves
ALASKA: "Even as [Sen. Jim] DeMint says he would welcome fellow Republican Sen. Lisa Murkowski back to the Senate, the South Carolinian is still urging conservative activists around the country to donate money to replace the incumbent with Tea Party favorite Joe Miller through a legal appeal," The State reports. DeMint, who raised $5.6 million for ultraconservative GOP candidates this year, attached a personal appeal letter to a "CONTRIBUTE" banner and a photo of Miller at the top of www.senateconservatives.com, the Web site of his Senate Conservatives Fund." http://broadcaster.msnbc.msn.com/t?ctl=21452:B2CA5A050EF65E323F8FC44DF3FDE37C&
Rep. Tim Bishop (D-NY-1) has come back to overtake Republican Randy Altschuler with counting of absentee and provisional ballots. That means of the five races still uncalled, Republicans lead in two. They are currently +61 in the House and could get to about +63 if current numbers hold. The uncalled races: CA-11, CA-20, NY-1, NY-25, TX-27.
CA-11: "As of 6:20 p.m. Friday in the most recent report issued by her office, California Secretary of State Debra Bowen reported that [Democratic Rep. Jerry] McNerney continues to lead [Republican challenger David] Harmer by less than 1%, a percentage difference that has remained the same for more than a week," Tri Valley Views reports. http://broadcaster.msnbc.msn.com/t?ctl=21453:B2CA5A050EF65E323F8FC44DF3FDE37C&
CA-20: "It now appears likely that Fresno Democrat Jim Costa will win a fourth term in Congress and narrowly escape the Republican tidal wave that nearly ended his three-decade political career," the Fresno Bee writes. "Yet Costa could have an even harder time holding on to his 20th Congressional District seat in 2012." http://broadcaster.msnbc.msn.com/t?ctl=21454:B2CA5A050EF65E323F8FC44DF3FDE37C&
NY-1: "Democratic Rep. Tim Bishop has overtaken Republican Randy Altschuler in the prolonged race for a New York House seat on Long Island that may stretch on for weeks to come," Politico writes. "With the counting of absentee and provisional ballots complete in six localities, Bishop leads Altschuler by 15 votes. Election officials still must tally 5,004 ballots in Brookhaven – a process that is expected to be completed by Wednesday at the soonest." http://broadcaster.msnbc.msn.com/t?ctl=21455:B2CA5A050EF65E323F8FC44DF3FDE37C&
NY-25: "Republican Ann Marie Buerkle holds a 567-vote lead over U.S. Rep. Dan Maffei in the 25th Congressional District race after Wayne County election officials released their unofficial tally of absentee votes today." http://broadcaster.msnbc.msn.com/t?ctl=21456:B2CA5A050EF65E323F8FC44DF3FDE37C&
TX-17: "A ballot recount in South Texas demanded by U.S. Rep. Solomon Ortiz is nearly complete, but he's still trailing Republican challenger Blake Farenthold," the AP reports. "Only about 15,000 absentee and early ballots have yet to be re-tabulated in Cameron County, which includes Brownsville, in the 27th Congressional District race." http://broadcaster.msnbc.msn.com/t?ctl=21443:B2CA5A050EF65E323F8FC44DF3FDE37C&
MAINE: "He has cursed at reporters and threatened to punch one. He once promised to tell the president of the United States to 'go to hell,'" the Boston Globe writes on its front page, profiling Maine's incoming Gov. Paul LePage. More: "LePage, with his narrow victory, is leading a Republican renaissance in Maine, one of just two states that will flip from complete Democratic control of state government to complete GOP control in January. He is a polarizing figure, and more complex than his public image might suggest… Republicans in Maine have not controlled the House, Senate, and the governor's office at the same time since the 1960s." http://broadcaster.msnbc.msn.com/t?ctl=21457:B2CA5A050EF65E323F8FC44DF3FDE37C&
NEVADA: Politico's post-mortem of the Nevada Senate race includes criticism of Sharron Angle's political team, including longtime adviser Terry Campbell. "'In the 20 years that I've been involved politically, I've never had the misfortune of working with such sheer, utter incompetence. Too much is at stake in these political campaigns — people like Campbell don't need to be anywhere near them,' said Chris LaCivita, who served as political director for the National Republican Senatorial Committee this fall and worked directly with the Angle campaign. 'If they were filming a sequel to the movie "Dumb and Dumber," Terry Campbell would have a feature role.'" http://broadcaster.msnbc.msn.com/t?ctl=21458:B2CA5A050EF65E323F8FC44DF3FDE37C&
2012: Setting the field
Quinnipiac is out with a 2012 poll, and it finds by a 64%-27% margin, Democrats don't want a challenge to President Obama. The president, the poll finds, has deficiencies among men, whites, independents, and those over age 35. But he retains a committed base.
In match-ups with potential 2012 Republicans, the numbers are close. Mitt Romney narrowly edges Obama 45%-44%; Obama narrowly leads Mike Huckabee 46%-44%; Obama leads Indiana Gov. Mitch Daniels, largely an unknown, 45%-36%; and Obama gets closest to 50% against Sarah Palin, whom he leads 48%-40%. Yet Palin leads in a hypothetical GOP primary with 19%, followed by Romney with 18%, Huckabee 17%, Gingrich 15%, Pawlenty 6%. Palin's negatives are the highest of all Republicans -- 36%-51%. Among independents, it's 33%-54%. Obama's is 48%-48%. Huckabee (41%-25%) and Romney (38%-26%) are positive, but Gingrich's is negative (30%-43%).
"At this point, former Alaska Gov. Palin runs the worst against President Obama. Daniels is essentially a generic Republican because of his anonymity to most voters. Obama only gets 45 percent against him while he gets 48 percent against Ms. Palin," said Peter A. Brown, assistant director of the poll. "She is very unpopular among independents and although she recently said she thought she could defeat Obama, the data does not now necessarily support that assertion." http://broadcaster.msnbc.msn.com/t?ctl=2143E:B2CA5A050EF65E323F8FC44DF3FDE37C&
Former First Lady Barbara Bush told CNN's Larry King about her impressions of Sarah Palin: "I sat next to her once. Thought she was beautiful. And I think she's very happy in Alaska, and I hope she'll stay there." http://broadcaster.msnbc.msn.com/t?ctl=21459:B2CA5A050EF65E323F8FC44DF3FDE37C&
"Former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee said in Iowa Sunday he is considering a 2012 presidential campaign, but stopped short of giving a time frame for a decision as other prospective candidates have," the Des Moines Register reports. http://broadcaster.msnbc.msn.com/t?ctl=2145A:B2CA5A050EF65E323F8FC44DF3FDE37C&
Read full story:
http://broadcaster.msnbc.msn.com/t?ctl=2145B:B2CA5A050EF65E323F8FC44DF3FDE37C&
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First Thoughts: Three questions for Palin
From Chuck Todd, Mark Murray, Domenico Montanaro, Ali Weinberg
FIRST THOUGHTS:
*** Three questions for Palin: As Sarah Palin comes out with a new book this week, as she goes on a book tour (hitting some battleground states), and as she hints that she might run for president in a New York Times magazine profile, the political world finds itself in the midst of another round of Palin-palooza. Will she run for president? If not, what is she up to? While we're still not sure she actually runs (if she found the scrutiny of remaining Alaska governor too much, then she might not enjoy running for president or even being president), we've come up with three questions to determine if she's truly serious about being a successful presidential candidate. After all, almost anyone can run for president (see: Mike Gravel, Alan Keyes, Fred Thompson, even Rudy Giuliani). But being a successful candidate -- coping with the campaign's highs and lows, outlasting your opponents, and still appealing to a sizable portion of the country -- is another matter. http://broadcaster.msnbc.msn.com/t?ctl=2143C:B2CA5A050EF65E323F8FC44DF3FDE37C&
*** Does she broaden her appeal? First, does she broaden her appeal beyond her conservative/Tea Party base? Most successful presidential candidates --- at least at this point in the cycle -- are viewed more as uniters than dividers. Yet per a NBC/WSJ poll conducted earlier this fall, Palin is loved by conservatives (53%-19% fav/unfav) and Republicans (55%-17%), but not by Democrats (9%-73%), moderates (14%-62%), or independents (25%-55%). And in our most recent NBC/WSJ poll, which was released after the midterms, being endorsed by Palin was one of the more negative candidate qualities; in fact, it was worse than being endorsed by a labor union, than supporting allowing workers to invest their Social Security contributions in the stock market, and than supporting the economic stimulus.
*** Does she become more disciplined? Second, does she begin to be more disciplined? Since resigning her governorship last year, Palin has not only picked fights with the Obama White House and congressional Democrats -- but also with David Letterman, Katie Couric, Politico, the Wall Street Journal, and even some establishment Beltway Republicans. While that kind of combat can work for a political pundit or entertainer (like Rush Limbaugh), it's harder for an actual presidential candidate, who will be a target of slings and arrows from Democrats and the White House, from fellow GOP presidential candidates, and from the news media. "She gives as good as she gets," Mary Matalin told Robert Draper in his New York Times magazine piece on Palin. "But I don't know her well enough to know if she's developed the thick skin you need to be endlessly resilient, the way Reagan could take things for decades and let them roll off his back."
*** And does she expand her policy portfolio? Third, do we see Palin expand her policy portfolio beyond her wheelhouse -- energy, special needs, and neoconservative foreign policy? Recently, Palin weighed in on the Federal Reserve's action to pump more money into the economy (however, she mistakenly said that prices have risen over the last year or so when, in fact, inflation has been very low). There are two perceptions of Palin: One hits at what Lisa Murkowski said last week. ("You know, she was my governor for two years, for just about two years there, and I don't think that she enjoyed governing," Murkowski told CBS. "I don't think she liked to get down into the policy."). And the other is what Draper said of her. ("Less well known was the Palin who … was seen more than once passed out on her hotel bed half-buried in briefing books and index cards…"). But will somebody explain how she is helping herself to be taken more seriously when she's using her new book to talk about things like "American Idol"? http://broadcaster.msnbc.msn.com/t?ctl=2143D:B2CA5A050EF65E323F8FC44DF3FDE37C&
*** More numbers on Palin: Meanwhile, a brand-new Quinnipiac poll shows Palin leading a hypothetical GOP primary field at 19% -- followed by Mitt Romney at 18%, Mike Huckabee at 17%, Newt Gingrich at 15%, and Tim Pawlenty at 6%. But in the GOP field, Palin's negatives are the highest (36%-51% overall fav/unfav and 33%-54% among indies), while Huckabee (41%-25%) and Romney (38%-26%) are positive, and Gingrich's is negative (30%-43%); Obama is 48%-48%. And Palin also performs the worst in a head-to-head against Obama: Romney narrowly edges the president, 45%-44%; Obama leads Huckabee, 46%-44%; Obama leads the largely unknown Daniels 45%-36%; and Obama gets closest to 50% against Palin, whom he leads 48%-40%. http://broadcaster.msnbc.msn.com/t?ctl=2143E:B2CA5A050EF65E323F8FC44DF3FDE37C&
*** A better trip for Obama: Turning from Palin to American foreign policy, the NATO summit in Portugal was a very productive trip for President Obama. NATO endorsing major troop reductions in Afghanistan by Dec. 31, 2014 is a big deal. Yes, it's punting, but it's also an international coalition supporting the U.S.'s end game. So there's no second guessing outside the U.S. on this issue. The only second guessing will come from anti-war Democrats inside the U.S. And frankly, it's legitimate second guessing, but could the U.S. realistically pull out any sooner? The international community's answer: no.
*** If you START me up, I'll never stop: But Afghanistan was just one storyline in Lisbon; the other was the new START treaty. This is turning into a key political battle for Team Obama, and they know it. They got every European leader imaginable to go public this weekend supporting the treaty. Indeed, there's a real fear in the White House that if Sen. Jon Kyl and the GOP roll them on this, it will weaken the president on the world's stage. Right now, the White House is struggling to agree on a strategy to get this done. At a press conference over the weekend, Obama hit the Republicans for playing politics on foreign policy and national security. "This is an issue that traditionally has received strong bipartisan support," he said. "There's no other reason not to do it than the fact that Washington has become a very partisan place." But he dodged the question of whether Kyl is playing politics. "I've spoken to Sen. Kyl directly," he said. "Sen. Kyl has never said to me that he does not want to see START ratified."
*** Sooner rather than later: Here's a tip: Expect to see some more White House staff movement sooner rather than later. Nobody likes working in limbo, and this may speed up Pete Rouse and Valerie Jarrett, the two people other than the president himself who may know more about the re-arranging of the staff.
*** The uncalled races: Rep. Tim Bishop (D-NY-1) has come back to overtake Republican Randy Altschuler with counting of absentee and provisional ballots. That means of the five House races still uncalled, Republicans lead in two. They are currently +61 in the House and could get to about +63 -- if current numbers hold. The uncalled races: CA-11, CA-20, NY-1, NY-25, and TX-27. In CA-11 and CA-20, the Democrats appear to be on track to win narrowly. In NY-25, Republican Ann Marie Buerkle expanded her lead over incumbent Democrat Dan Maffei. And in TX-27, Blake Farenthold (R) continues to lead, as a recount requested by incumbent Solomon Ortiz nears completion. http://broadcaster.msnbc.msn.com/t?ctl=2143F:B2CA5A050EF65E323F8FC44DF3FDE37C& http://broadcaster.msnbc.msn.com/t?ctl=21440:B2CA5A050EF65E323F8FC44DF3FDE37C& http://broadcaster.msnbc.msn.com/t?ctl=21441:B2CA5A050EF65E323F8FC44DF3FDE37C& http://broadcaster.msnbc.msn.com/t?ctl=21442:B2CA5A050EF65E323F8FC44DF3FDE37C& and http://broadcaster.msnbc.msn.com/t?ctl=21443:B2CA5A050EF65E323F8FC44DF3FDE37C&
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OBAMA AGENDA: If you START me up, I'll never stop
The Washington Post: "Obama comes home from the NATO summit facing one of the most significant showdowns of his presidency: trying to win ratification of the New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (START) before the Senate adjourns in December. Jon Kyl (Ariz), the second-ranking Republican senator, said last week he did not think there was time to bring it up during the current lame-duck session. But Obama has forced the issue, reflecting Democrats' belief that if the treaty is pushed into next year, it could become a political issue for an emboldened Republican Party. The pact currently needs nine Republican votes to pass the full Senate but will need 14 next year." http://broadcaster.msnbc.msn.com/t?ctl=21447:B2CA5A050EF65E323F8FC44DF3FDE37C&
The AP: "President Obama took aim yesterday at Republican senators standing in the way of a nuclear arms reduction pact with Russia, saying they were abandoning Ronald Reagan's lesson of nuclear diplomacy: 'Trust but verify.'" http://broadcaster.msnbc.msn.com/t?ctl=21448:B2CA5A050EF65E323F8FC44DF3FDE37C&
The New York Times says that "while that Asia trip had mixed results, forcing Mr. Obama to leave without the South Korean trade deal he had expected, the consensus with Europeans and Russians at the NATO summit in Lisbon about how to handle Afghanistan and missile defense gave him a more successful sheen — even if ultimate success, particularly in Afghanistan, remains problematic." http://broadcaster.msnbc.msn.com/t?ctl=21449:B2CA5A050EF65E323F8FC44DF3FDE37C&
Warren Buffett says the Bush tax cuts should expire. http://broadcaster.msnbc.msn.com/t?ctl=2144A:B2CA5A050EF65E323F8FC44DF3FDE37C&
Caught between complaints that airport screening has become too intrusive and threats of new terror attacks on aviation, Obama administration officials say they are sensitive to criticisms that security measures go too far, but they are insisting that the measures now in place are justified by the risks," the New York Times says. "With the Thanksgiving travel crush imminent, the chief of the Transportation Security Administration, John S. Pistole, said in a statement that his agency would try to make screening methods 'as minimally invasive as possible.' But he gave no indication that the agency would reverse its move to full-body scanners, now deployed in 70 of 450 airports in the United States, and physical pat-downs for passengers who object to the scans." http://broadcaster.msnbc.msn.com/t?ctl=2144B:B2CA5A050EF65E323F8FC44DF3FDE37C&
"Asked if she would be willing to submit to an airport frisk, [Secretary of State] Clinton laughed and admitted, 'Not if I could avoid it. No, I mean who would?'" http://broadcaster.msnbc.msn.com/t?ctl=2144C:B2CA5A050EF65E323F8FC44DF3FDE37C&
The New York Post looks at the turkeys set to be pardoned by President Obama ahead of Thanksgiving. http://broadcaster.msnbc.msn.com/t?ctl=2144D:B2CA5A050EF65E323F8FC44DF3FDE37C&
Last year, we at First Read looked at the history of turkey pardons. President Truman is often incorrectly cited as the first to pardon a turkey. It appears President Kennedy was the first president to pardon a Thanksgiving turkey in 1963. Abraham Lincoln also spared a turkey, but it was one for Christmas. And here's video of last year's pardon. http://broadcaster.msnbc.msn.com/t?ctl=2144E:B2CA5A050EF65E323F8FC44DF3FDE37C& and http://broadcaster.msnbc.msn.com/t?ctl=2144F:B2CA5A050EF65E323F8FC44DF3FDE37C&
CONGRESS: DADT report coming
"Defense Secretary Robert Gates is instructing his staff to accelerate by one day the public release of a yearlong study into the implications of repealing the ban on openly gay people serving in the military," The Hill reports. "That study, initially due Dec. 1, will now be ready for release on Nov. 30 to allow the congressional defense committees to hold hearings on the report as soon as possible." http://broadcaster.msnbc.msn.com/t?ctl=21450:B2CA5A050EF65E323F8FC44DF3FDE37C&
GOP WATCH: Enter Maria Cino
Politico writes, "Former Bush administration official Maria Cino has created a 527 committee for an increasingly likely bid to become the RNC chairman, POLITICO has learned. Cino filed papers to create "Maria for Chairman" Friday with the FEC, a move that will let her raise and spend money in a campaign to take over the national party. http://broadcaster.msnbc.msn.com/t?ctl=21451:B2CA5A050EF65E323F8FC44DF3FDE37C&
2010: DeMint supports Miller's legal moves
ALASKA: "Even as [Sen. Jim] DeMint says he would welcome fellow Republican Sen. Lisa Murkowski back to the Senate, the South Carolinian is still urging conservative activists around the country to donate money to replace the incumbent with Tea Party favorite Joe Miller through a legal appeal," The State reports. DeMint, who raised $5.6 million for ultraconservative GOP candidates this year, attached a personal appeal letter to a "CONTRIBUTE" banner and a photo of Miller at the top of www.senateconservatives.com, the Web site of his Senate Conservatives Fund." http://broadcaster.msnbc.msn.com/t?ctl=21452:B2CA5A050EF65E323F8FC44DF3FDE37C&
Rep. Tim Bishop (D-NY-1) has come back to overtake Republican Randy Altschuler with counting of absentee and provisional ballots. That means of the five races still uncalled, Republicans lead in two. They are currently +61 in the House and could get to about +63 if current numbers hold. The uncalled races: CA-11, CA-20, NY-1, NY-25, TX-27.
CA-11: "As of 6:20 p.m. Friday in the most recent report issued by her office, California Secretary of State Debra Bowen reported that [Democratic Rep. Jerry] McNerney continues to lead [Republican challenger David] Harmer by less than 1%, a percentage difference that has remained the same for more than a week," Tri Valley Views reports. http://broadcaster.msnbc.msn.com/t?ctl=21453:B2CA5A050EF65E323F8FC44DF3FDE37C&
CA-20: "It now appears likely that Fresno Democrat Jim Costa will win a fourth term in Congress and narrowly escape the Republican tidal wave that nearly ended his three-decade political career," the Fresno Bee writes. "Yet Costa could have an even harder time holding on to his 20th Congressional District seat in 2012." http://broadcaster.msnbc.msn.com/t?ctl=21454:B2CA5A050EF65E323F8FC44DF3FDE37C&
NY-1: "Democratic Rep. Tim Bishop has overtaken Republican Randy Altschuler in the prolonged race for a New York House seat on Long Island that may stretch on for weeks to come," Politico writes. "With the counting of absentee and provisional ballots complete in six localities, Bishop leads Altschuler by 15 votes. Election officials still must tally 5,004 ballots in Brookhaven – a process that is expected to be completed by Wednesday at the soonest." http://broadcaster.msnbc.msn.com/t?ctl=21455:B2CA5A050EF65E323F8FC44DF3FDE37C&
NY-25: "Republican Ann Marie Buerkle holds a 567-vote lead over U.S. Rep. Dan Maffei in the 25th Congressional District race after Wayne County election officials released their unofficial tally of absentee votes today." http://broadcaster.msnbc.msn.com/t?ctl=21456:B2CA5A050EF65E323F8FC44DF3FDE37C&
TX-17: "A ballot recount in South Texas demanded by U.S. Rep. Solomon Ortiz is nearly complete, but he's still trailing Republican challenger Blake Farenthold," the AP reports. "Only about 15,000 absentee and early ballots have yet to be re-tabulated in Cameron County, which includes Brownsville, in the 27th Congressional District race." http://broadcaster.msnbc.msn.com/t?ctl=21443:B2CA5A050EF65E323F8FC44DF3FDE37C&
MAINE: "He has cursed at reporters and threatened to punch one. He once promised to tell the president of the United States to 'go to hell,'" the Boston Globe writes on its front page, profiling Maine's incoming Gov. Paul LePage. More: "LePage, with his narrow victory, is leading a Republican renaissance in Maine, one of just two states that will flip from complete Democratic control of state government to complete GOP control in January. He is a polarizing figure, and more complex than his public image might suggest… Republicans in Maine have not controlled the House, Senate, and the governor's office at the same time since the 1960s." http://broadcaster.msnbc.msn.com/t?ctl=21457:B2CA5A050EF65E323F8FC44DF3FDE37C&
NEVADA: Politico's post-mortem of the Nevada Senate race includes criticism of Sharron Angle's political team, including longtime adviser Terry Campbell. "'In the 20 years that I've been involved politically, I've never had the misfortune of working with such sheer, utter incompetence. Too much is at stake in these political campaigns — people like Campbell don't need to be anywhere near them,' said Chris LaCivita, who served as political director for the National Republican Senatorial Committee this fall and worked directly with the Angle campaign. 'If they were filming a sequel to the movie "Dumb and Dumber," Terry Campbell would have a feature role.'" http://broadcaster.msnbc.msn.com/t?ctl=21458:B2CA5A050EF65E323F8FC44DF3FDE37C&
2012: Setting the field
Quinnipiac is out with a 2012 poll, and it finds by a 64%-27% margin, Democrats don't want a challenge to President Obama. The president, the poll finds, has deficiencies among men, whites, independents, and those over age 35. But he retains a committed base.
In match-ups with potential 2012 Republicans, the numbers are close. Mitt Romney narrowly edges Obama 45%-44%; Obama narrowly leads Mike Huckabee 46%-44%; Obama leads Indiana Gov. Mitch Daniels, largely an unknown, 45%-36%; and Obama gets closest to 50% against Sarah Palin, whom he leads 48%-40%. Yet Palin leads in a hypothetical GOP primary with 19%, followed by Romney with 18%, Huckabee 17%, Gingrich 15%, Pawlenty 6%. Palin's negatives are the highest of all Republicans -- 36%-51%. Among independents, it's 33%-54%. Obama's is 48%-48%. Huckabee (41%-25%) and Romney (38%-26%) are positive, but Gingrich's is negative (30%-43%).
"At this point, former Alaska Gov. Palin runs the worst against President Obama. Daniels is essentially a generic Republican because of his anonymity to most voters. Obama only gets 45 percent against him while he gets 48 percent against Ms. Palin," said Peter A. Brown, assistant director of the poll. "She is very unpopular among independents and although she recently said she thought she could defeat Obama, the data does not now necessarily support that assertion." http://broadcaster.msnbc.msn.com/t?ctl=2143E:B2CA5A050EF65E323F8FC44DF3FDE37C&
Former First Lady Barbara Bush told CNN's Larry King about her impressions of Sarah Palin: "I sat next to her once. Thought she was beautiful. And I think she's very happy in Alaska, and I hope she'll stay there." http://broadcaster.msnbc.msn.com/t?ctl=21459:B2CA5A050EF65E323F8FC44DF3FDE37C&
"Former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee said in Iowa Sunday he is considering a 2012 presidential campaign, but stopped short of giving a time frame for a decision as other prospective candidates have," the Des Moines Register reports. http://broadcaster.msnbc.msn.com/t?ctl=2145A:B2CA5A050EF65E323F8FC44DF3FDE37C&
Read full story:
http://broadcaster.msnbc.msn.com/t?ctl=2145B:B2CA5A050EF65E323F8FC44DF3FDE37C&
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Mike Lee 'cut political teeth' in Reid household
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Mike Pence: Obama 'will be thrown'
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Week Ahead: Don't touch my junk!
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Should conservatives be grateful for Arlen Specter?
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Draw! Time to pick out offices
http://broadcaster.msnbc.msn.com/t?ctl=21460:B2CA5A050EF65E323F8FC44DF3FDE37C&
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