First Read: Breaking Away

First Read from NBC News
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First Read: Breaking Away

From Chuck Todd, Mark Murray, Domenico Montanaro, and Ali Weinberg

FIRST THOUGHTS.
*** Breaking away: As we've witnessed over the past two years -- and especially this past week -- Congress often seems like a dysfunctional place. And polls confirm that, with congressional approval ratings near 20% on a good day. That's why presidents often want to keep their distance from the legislative branch. But to help pass his ambitious agenda (stimulus, health care), President Obama sometimes got his hands dirty in the congressional sausage making, having to twist arms and settle intra-party disputes. In short, he was acting more like a Senate majority leader than president. Yet when you step back from the events of the past week, you realize that the president might have laid the groundwork to accomplish this feat: break away from Congress. In rising above the partisans from both parties to cut the tax deal, as well as scolding liberal "purists" at his press conference, Obama no longer seemed like a de facto majority leader or party whip. He was, well, presidential.

*** Obama as Bush 41? There's another way to look at Obama breaking away from Congress and Democratic liberals: that he's Bush 41. As Jon Meacham wrote yesterday, "It was in 1990 that Mr. Bush broke one of the most celebrated promises in modern American politics —'Read my lips: no new taxes,' as he put it in 1988 — in order to control federal spending. In the same way that Mr. Obama struck his deal to secure lower tax rates for the middle-class and win an extension of unemployment benefits, Mr. Bush gave on tax rates to get 'pay as you go' rules… It was the beginning of the fiscal discipline that helped create the budget surpluses of the 1990s." The comparisons are obvious: Both men are/were pragmatists (in domestic and foreign policy), both have the Ivy League/New England grace, and both disappointed party activists. http://broadcaster.msnbc.msn.com/t?ctl=241D5:B2CA5A050EF65E322A40A31603AB684F&

*** The big difference: But there's one big difference: Bush 41 never had the natural and loyal base than Obama does now with African Americans, Latinos, and young voters. It's what cost Bush 41 in '92, and that loyal base Obama enjoys may be what saves him in 2012. We laugh anytime we read about Carter-Obama comparisons, because there aren't many. But because Carter was the last one-term Dem president, folks try to fit some analysis into that box. Some presidents are similar, despite carrying different party labels. The most striking similarities between Obama and Bush 41 aren't just on style but on foreign policy. Just ask, well, Israel.

*** Reid schedules first tax vote for Monday: Turning to the tax deal itself, Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid introduced the compromise legislation last night. And NBC's Kelly O'Donnell reports that Reid will call for a cloture vote on Monday to begin debate on the agreement. The vote -- which needs 60 to pass -- is expected at 3:00 pm ET and may be held open for a few hours if senators are traveling back from home states. But over in the House, the Democratic caucus yesterday voted (though it wasn't binding) not to bring the legislation to the floor in that chamber. In an interview with NPR, however, Obama said he was optimistic the overall compromise "framework" would become law. "I think that the framework that we've put forward -- which says not only that people's taxes don't go up on Jan. 1, but also that we extend unemployment insurance for a year, that we make sure that key provisions like the college tax credit, the child tax credit, the earned-income tax credit are included -- that that framework is going to serve as the basis for compromise." http://broadcaster.msnbc.msn.com/t?ctl=241D6:B2CA5A050EF65E322A40A31603AB684F&

*** "Cluster" vs. "network" liberals: While enough House Democrats -- along with congressional Republicans -- are expected to come around and vote for the agreement after Senate passage, make no mistake: Their frustrations and anger are real. According to Capitol Hill sources, these Dems are upset with the policy (especially regarding the concession over estate taxes) and the process (with the White House freezing them out from the final negotiations). But more than anything else, they see this tax-cut deal as the final straw in the Obama White House taking their votes for granted. In today's New York Times, David Brooks has an interesting take on the Obama-vs.-House Dem divide. He says that House Dems are "cluster" liberals, who "view politics as a battle between implacable opponents. As a result, they believe victory is achieved through maximum unity." On the other hand, he calls people like Obama and Ted Kennedy "network" liberals, who "believe progress is achieved by leaders savvy enough to build coalitions." By the way, we're still wondering when more than the same five to 10 Democrats are going to go public in their opposition to Obama's compromise? Is the opposition being overhyped? http://broadcaster.msnbc.msn.com/t?ctl=241D7:B2CA5A050EF65E322A40A31603AB684F&

*** Obama eyes tax reform: As we wrote earlier this week, one way that Obama can avoid re-litigating the Bush tax cuts in 2012 (when they expire and when he runs for re-election) is to push for an overhaul of the tax code between now and then. And in his interview with NPR, he suggested he's more than open to such a move. "The idea is simplifying the system, hopefully lowering rates, broadening the base - that's something that I think most economists think would help us propel economic growth. But it's a very complicated conversation," Obama said. "So what I believe is, is that we've got to start that conversation next year. I think we can get some broad bipartisan agreement that it needs to be done. But it's going to require a lot of hard work to actually make it happen." Real tax reform, as was proposed by the Bowles-Simpson debt commission, is one way to make this two-year extension of the Bush tax rates moot. http://broadcaster.msnbc.msn.com/t?ctl=241D6:B2CA5A050EF65E322A40A31603AB684F&

*** DADT repeal blocked: Senate Republicans yesterday filibustering the defense authorization bill -- which contained the repeal of "Don't Ask, Don't Tell" -- was an unmistakable defeat for the Obama White House and the gay community. And it means that DADT is unlikely to be repealed any time soon, unless the courts decide to overturn the policy. The Washington Post: "With congressional options dwindling, the president could order the Justice Department to stop appealing federal court cases challenging the constitutionality of the law or use his powers as commander in chief to issue a stop-loss order halting military discharges and the removal of any gay troops in violation of the ban. His statement Thursday maintained a preference for legislative action." Supporters also will try to bring the repeal as a stand-alone measure, though the prospects for passage aren't likely. By the way, the man most responsible for the opposition to repeal – John McCain, who in 2006 signaled his willingness to end DADT if military leaders agreed – delivers a speech this morning at John Hopkins' School of Advanced International Studies. http://broadcaster.msnbc.msn.com/t?ctl=241D8:B2CA5A050EF65E322A40A31603AB684F&

*** At the "mercy of the courts"? Defense Secretary Gates, who advocated for repeal, commented on the defeat while on a plane returning from an overseas trip, per NBC's Courtney Kube. "I was disappointed in the Senate vote, but not surprised, as I indicated when we were on the aircraft carrier Abraham Lincoln earlier in the week. I was not optimistic. The fact remains though that there is still roughly a week left in the lame duck session, so I would hope that the Congress would act to repeal 'Don't Ask, Don't Tell.'" More Gates: "If they are unable to do that, then, as I indicated in testimony, and talking with you all, my greatest worry will be that we are at the mercy of the courts and all of the lack of predictability that that entails."

*** Obama meets with Bubba: Think Bill Clinton will give President Obama some advice in dealing with a GOP-controlled Congress when the two men meet at the White House -- closed to the press -- at 3:00 pm ET?

*** T-Paw's book tour: Next month, Tim Pawlenty's book, "Courage to Stand," will hit the stores, and an aide sends First Read his book-tour schedule: Washington, DC (1/13), Tampa, FL (1/14), Woodbury, MN (1/18), Dallas, TX (1/20), Dallas and Houston, TX (1/21), Manchester, NH (1/25), Burnsville/St. Cloud, MN (1/27), Cincinnati, OH (1/29), Ankeny, IA (1/30), and West Des Moines, IA (1/31).

*** Palin to Haiti: NBC's Adam Verdugo reports that Sarah Palin is headed to Haiti this weekend with Rev. Franklin Graham's Samaritan's Purse, according to aide Rebecca Mansour. Palin also publishes a Wall Street Journal op-ed endorsing Paul Ryan's "roadmap" (which calls for turning Medicare into a voucher system and allowing workers under 55 to invest their Social Security payroll taxes in the stock market). http://broadcaster.msnbc.msn.com/t?ctl=241D9:B2CA5A050EF65E322A40A31603AB684F&
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OBAMA AGENDA: Confidence
"In the face of strong opposition from members of his own party, President Obama says that he's confident lawmakers will eventually approve a tax cut deal he negotiated with congressional Republicans," NPR writes of its interview with the president. Obama said, "Nobody -- Democrat or Republican -- wants to see people's paychecks smaller on Jan. 1 because Congress didn't act." http://broadcaster.msnbc.msn.com/t?ctl=241DD:B2CA5A050EF65E322A40A31603AB684F&
Here's the full transcript: http://broadcaster.msnbc.msn.com/t?ctl=241DE:B2CA5A050EF65E322A40A31603AB684F&
President Obama also made mention of reforming the tax code in the NPR interview. And here's today's New York Times: "President Obama is considering whether to push early next year for an overhaul of the income tax code to lower rates and raise revenues in what would be his first major effort to begin addressing the long-term growth of the national debt." http://broadcaster.msnbc.msn.com/t?ctl=241DF:B2CA5A050EF65E322A40A31603AB684F&
Lots of commentary today on the tax deal. Paul Krugman criticizes it. "I've spent the past couple of days trying to make my peace with the Obama-McConnell tax-cut deal. President Obama did, after all, extract more concessions than most of us expected. Yet I remain deeply uneasy — not because I'm one of those "purists" Mr. Obama denounced on Tuesday but because this isn't the end of the story. Specifically: Mr. Obama has bought the release of some hostages only by providing the G.O.P. with new hostages." http://broadcaster.msnbc.msn.com/t?ctl=241E0:B2CA5A050EF65E322A40A31603AB684F&
David Brooks likes it. "The fact is, Obama and the Democrats have had an excellent week. The White House negotiators did an outstanding job for their side. With little leverage, they got not only the unemployment insurance, but also an Earned Income Tax Credit provision, a college scholarship provision and other Democratic goodies. With little leverage, they got a package that could win grudging praise from big-name liberal groups like the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities and the Center for American Progress. Moreover, Obama has put himself in a position to govern again." http://broadcaster.msnbc.msn.com/t?ctl=241D7:B2CA5A050EF65E322A40A31603AB684F&
Charles Krauthammer also believes the Dems got a good deal – in fact, he believes Obama bested the GOP. "Barack Obama won the great tax-cut showdown of 2010 - and House Democrats don't have a clue that he did. In the deal struck this week, the president negotiated the biggest stimulus in American history, larger than his $814 billion 2009 stimulus package. It will pump a trillion borrowed Chinese dollars into the U.S. economy over the next two years - which just happen to be the two years of the run-up to the next presidential election. This is a defeat?" http://broadcaster.msnbc.msn.com/t?ctl=241E1:B2CA5A050EF65E322A40A31603AB684F&
National Journal's Ron Brownstein writes that the tax deal is only Act 1 for Obama. "But more stimulus, while necessary as the economy continues to sputter, isn't a sufficient strategy for long-term growth. Act 2 must include a serious effort to tame exploding federal deficits and debt, while reorienting both the tax code and Washington's spending priorities from consumption to investment. This week's deal ought to be measured not only on its immediate economic impact but on whether it makes such fundamental reform more likely." http://broadcaster.msnbc.msn.com/t?ctl=241E2:B2CA5A050EF65E322A40A31603AB684F&

CONGRESS: Some changes to the tax deal
"Democratic and Republican Senate leaders made a dramatic bid last night to salvage President Obama's tax package by adding an array of tax breaks, including ones for alternative energy projects, that could clear the way for passage next week," the Boston Globe reports. "These changes, which had been included in previous congressional tax proposals, include such disparate items as extending tax credits for railroad maintenance, motor raceway improvements, economic development in American Samoa, and increasing the limit of rum excise tax revenue to Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands. All told, the package would cost about $855 billion, according to preliminary projections by the Joint Committee on Taxation. The dozens of extensions on business tax breaks, including those for alternative energy, would cost about $55 billion." http://broadcaster.msnbc.msn.com/t?ctl=241E3:B2CA5A050EF65E322A40A31603AB684F&
A cloture vote on the tax bill is set for 3:00 pm ET Monday in the Senate, Roll Call reports. http://broadcaster.msnbc.msn.com/t?ctl=241E4:B2CA5A050EF65E322A40A31603AB684F&
Anger bubbled over in the Democrats' caucus meeting, where they voted – though it's non-binding -- against the tax compromise framework. When Rep. Shelly Berkley was defending the proposal, a member muttered, "F--- the president," Roll Call reports. http://broadcaster.msnbc.msn.com/t?ctl=241E5:B2CA5A050EF65E322A40A31603AB684F&
"The House Democratic leadership is pushing back against complaints from several departing Members that a Caucus vote rejecting President Barack Obama's tax cut deal occurred without their input," Roll Call writes. http://broadcaster.msnbc.msn.com/t?ctl=241E6:B2CA5A050EF65E322A40A31603AB684F&
Sharpton vs. Weiner: The New York Daily News: "The Democrats' family feud went local Thursday when Rev. Al Sharpton accused Rep. Anthony Weiner of ignoring the needs of working people." Sharpton said, "I'm against tax cuts for the rich too...but this is absolutely over the top to blame this on President Obama. The goal is to take care of working class people, not to attack the President." More: "Sharpton will use his nationally-syndicated radio show Thursday afternoon to urge Weiner to temper his razor-tongued rhetoric." He invited Weiner to debate him on his show. "There will be pushback," Sharpton said. http://broadcaster.msnbc.msn.com/t?ctl=241E7:B2CA5A050EF65E322A40A31603AB684F&
Changing the Ways? Speaker-to-be John Boehner hired a lobbyist to be his policy director. http://broadcaster.msnbc.msn.com/t?ctl=241E8:B2CA5A050EF65E322A40A31603AB684F&
"Senate Republicans blocked a repeal of the ban on openly gay service members yesterday, potentially dooming any chance for overturning the military's 'don't ask, don't tell' policy this year," the Boston Globe writes. http://broadcaster.msnbc.msn.com/t?ctl=241E9:B2CA5A050EF65E322A40A31603AB684F&
The New York Daily News takes a similar angle with its headline: 'Don't Ask, Don't Tell' repeal blocked by Senate Republicans." http://broadcaster.msnbc.msn.com/t?ctl=241EA:B2CA5A050EF65E322A40A31603AB684F&
Sen. Tom Coburn (R-OK) is calling for a block of the continuing resolution that would fund the government, deriding it as a "Trojan horse" to fund the health care overhaul, The Hill writes. He said that "is hardly the mandate from the November elections." http://broadcaster.msnbc.msn.com/t?ctl=241EB:B2CA5A050EF65E322A40A31603AB684F&
"Three years after promoting a landmark immigration reform bill, [Sen. Lindsay] Graham is now joining hardliners in opposing a measure that would grant the same protections to children of illegal aliens" that he provided to a single child of an immigrant mother in 2007, creating a rare "private bill" on her behalf, McClatchy writes. http://broadcaster.msnbc.msn.com/t?ctl=241EC:B2CA5A050EF65E322A40A31603AB684F&
Roll Call on earmarks, or whatever you want to call them: "Operating under very tight budget constraints, Congress will keep federal spending flat next year — except for the wild horses of the West, who get an extra $12 million. … While that is technically true [that the bill doesn't have earmarks in it], the bill does include money specifically aimed at addressing Members' pet projects, from uranium mining to protecting presidential candidates to rounding up wild horses." http://broadcaster.msnbc.msn.com/t?ctl=241ED:B2CA5A050EF65E322A40A31603AB684F&
Fed fight: Guess who's in charge of the Domestic Monetary Policy Subcommittee… Ron Paul. http://broadcaster.msnbc.msn.com/t?ctl=241EE:B2CA5A050EF65E322A40A31603AB684F&

2012: T-Paw's book tour next month
The Wall Street Journal notes that "at this point in 2006, five Republicans had made early filings to run for the White House in 2008. Today, none have declared for the 2012 contest." http://broadcaster.msnbc.msn.com/t?ctl=241EF:B2CA5A050EF65E322A40A31603AB684F&
CHRISTIE: After facing criticism for his style, the New Jersey governor held a more muted town hall. http://broadcaster.msnbc.msn.com/t?ctl=241F0:B2CA5A050EF65E322A40A31603AB684F&
DANIELS: The Indiana governor is making a foray into education policy, pushing for school vouchers in his state. http://broadcaster.msnbc.msn.com/t?ctl=241F1:B2CA5A050EF65E322A40A31603AB684F&
HUCKABEE: Mike Huckabee signed copies of his books at a Sam's Club in South Lakeland, Florida. http://broadcaster.msnbc.msn.com/t?ctl=241F2:B2CA5A050EF65E322A40A31603AB684F&
PALIN: "America by Heart," Palin's new memoir, has logged disappointing receipts since it officially went on sale late last month, publishing sources say. Although the book is second on the New York Times bestseller list this week (behind former president George W. Bush's memoir, "Decision Points") its publisher, HarperCollins, hasn't ordered a second printing - a sign that sales haven't been overly brisk. http://broadcaster.msnbc.msn.com/t?ctl=241F3:B2CA5A050EF65E322A40A31603AB684F&

PAWLENTY: "Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty will spend two days each in Iowa and New Hampshire during an upcoming tour to promote his forthcoming book, according to details put out Friday by his political action committee," the Washington Post reports. His book "Courage to Stand" comes out Jan. 11. "After the book's release, Pawlenty begins his tour in New York with appearances on TV programs such as Comedy Central's "The Daily Show" and ABC's "The View," and with a National Press Club speech in Washington. His multi-state tour includes late-January stops in early presidential voting states New Hampshire and Iowa. Pawlenty will also sign books in Florida, Minnesota, Ohio and Texas."
http://broadcaster.msnbc.msn.com/t?ctl=241F4:B2CA5A050EF65E322A40A31603AB684F&
Here are Pawlenty's book tour dates, per a release provided to First Read that's going out later this morning from his PAC: It starts Jan. 13 at the National Press Club in DC; Jan. 14: Miami and Tampa, FL; Jan. 18: Woodbury, MN; Jan. 20: Dallas; Jan. 21: Dallas and Houston; Jan. 24: Concord and Manchester, NH; Jan. 25: Bedford, NH; Jan. 27: Burnsville and St. Cloud, MN; Jan. 29: Cincinnati; Jan. 30: Ankeny and Waukee, IA; Jan. 31: West Des Moines, IA.
SANTORUM: The Washington Post sizes up the former senator and presidential longshot's chances: "The GOP has a tradition of anointing the next person in line. With more than a dozen other names being mentioned, Santorum is nowhere near the front. The last time he was on a ballot, in a 2006 bid for a third Senate term in Pennsylvania, he lost by 18 percentage points…Then there's the fact that the Republican establishment may not be in the driver's seat this time. And the other fact that Santorum was a tea party kind of guy before there was a tea party." http://broadcaster.msnbc.msn.com/t?ctl=241F5:B2CA5A050EF65E322A40A31603AB684F&
THUNE: John Thune says no START. He writes on National Review's Web site: "New START misses one opportunity after another to maintain a stable nuclear relationship between our two countries. To remedy this will require significant time on the floor of the Senate. Trying to force it through without ample time for debate and amendments would amount to a Christmas gift to the Russians." http://broadcaster.msnbc.msn.com/t?ctl=241F6:B2CA5A050EF65E322A40A31603AB684F&
IOWA: "Matt Strawn's likely to be re-elected chairman of the Republican Party of Iowa, leaving the party in a strong position to build on its 2010 successes into the 2012 cycle," the Des Moines Register reports. "Strawn did the groundwork to help rebuild the party after the 2008 caucuses. He traveled the state extensively, meeting with county chairs. He made early voting a priority, and saw performance increase by 83 percent compared to 2006." http://broadcaster.msnbc.msn.com/t?ctl=241F7:B2CA5A050EF65E322A40A31603AB684F&

NEW HAMPSHIRE: "New Hampshire's Democratic National Committeeman says that 'talk is terrific' about a primary challenge to President Barack Obama, but no one is signing up for a challenge or renting campaign office space and, as a whole, that is fine with him." http://broadcaster.msnbc.msn.com/t?ctl=241F8:B2CA5A050EF65E322A40A31603AB684F&

SOUTH CAROLINA: The Washington Examiner sums up South Carolina's opinion of Sarah Palin: "Conservatives in the state like Palin. They agree with her on most issues. They are inclined to defend her when she is unfairly attacked, which is often. But that doesn't necessarily mean they're convinced she should be president."
2010: Just a little patience -- yeah, yeah
ALASKA: NRSC Chairman John Cornyn: "We just have to be patient and wait for the judge to decide," said Cornyn, a former judge, yesterday per Roll Call. "I understand that could be as early as [Thursday], and I hope it doesn't go on much longer because I think the people of Alaska deserve to have a Senator when we reconvene again in January, and not still have that up in the air." http://broadcaster.msnbc.msn.com/t?ctl=241F9:B2CA5A050EF65E322A40A31603AB684F&