First Read: Obama's big win

First Read from NBC News
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First Read: Obama's big win

From Chuck Todd, Mark Murray, Domenico Montanaro, and Ali Weinberg

FIRST THOUGHTS.
*** Obama's big win: The compromise tax agreement, which the House passed last night (by a 277-148 vote) and which will be signed into law sometime this afternoon, represents President Obama's biggest win since health care -- and that was back in March. (So if you're counting, that's almost nine months ago…) Yes, the financial reform legislation was a triumph, as was Elena Kagan's SCOTUS confirmation. But neither was as BIG a win as this tax deal was. To get it passed, Obama used the bully pulpit (the presser, TV interviews); the White House's message shop kicked into high gear (those numerous endorsement emails); and Team Obama utilized its surrogates (Vice President Biden, Bill Clinton).

*** And its big irony: Of course, there's plenty of irony that this big win also represents Obama breaking one of his biggest campaign promises -- namely, ending the Bush tax cuts for the wealthy. But as we've maintained over the past two weeks, the deal was as good as Democrats could get, especially with Republicans set to gain control of the House and pick up extra Senate seats in January. The passage also is a big win for Mitch McConnell and John Boehner, who had to whip their members to support the deal, despite growing conservative resistance to it. The question: Does the Obama-McConnell-Boehner alliance on this tax deal prove to be the new normal in the next Congress? Or is what we saw the exception? We'll find out soon enough.

*** Reid pulls the omnibus: But Senate Democrats -- and also the Obama administration -- suffered a defeat last night when Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid decided not to bring the so-called omnibus appropriations bill to the floor. The reason: Reid didn't have the GOP votes, given Republicans' complaints about the $8 billion in earmarks in the legislation (even though some of these very Republicans had their own earmarks in it). Sen. John McCain, who led the crusade against the omnibus, declared victory after Reid pulled the legislation. But that didn't sit well with some Democratic senators, NBC's Ken Strickland reports.

*** McCain and Kirk gloat; McCaskill fires back: Per Strick, as McCain was speaking after Reid's announcement, the Arizona senator was asked a question by his GOP colleague, Illinois Sen. Mark Kirk. "For the most junior member, for those who are not understanding, what happened? Did we just win?" Kirk asked. (He had previously served 10 years in the House.) At that end of his exchange with McCain, you can hear Kirk say, "Congratulations." Strickland observes that rarely -- if ever -- do members publicly gloat on the Senate floor after a political or legislative victory. And the Kirk-McCain exchange did not play well with Dem Sen. Claire McCaskill. "For senators to get on this floor and say, 'We won,' and, you know, do this kind of stuff when you know how many Republicans worked hard on provisions in that bill..." McCaskill also said: "What's offensive to me is that we've gotten into this bad habit of trying to score cheap political points." By the way, killing an earmark doesn't mean cutting spending; it simply means the money can't be DIRECTED to a specific project. The hope by anti-earmark advocates is that ending the practice will make senators less spend-happy if there's no more political benefit for it.

*** START and DADT repeal are still alive: Despite the omnibus' defeat -- Congress will now have to fund the government with a Continuing Resolution -- Democrats have the ability to pick up two more legislation wins: ratification of New START and the repeal of "Don't Ask, Don't Tell." Strick reports that, on Saturday, the Senate will vote on the stand-alone DADT repeal bill, as well as the DREAM Act (whose prospects for passage are much less likely). If DADT gets the 60 votes -- and it very well could -- it would be the last of the major hurdles for before passage. Strick says that, assuming it gets 60 votes tomorrow, there would likely be another vote to follow it. But that would need only a simple majority of 51 votes to become law. The House has already passed this exact version. Watch the DADT vote carefully. How many GOP senators will hold back to see if it does get its 60 and then decide to vote for the repeal and it goes to 75-80 votes?

*** White-collar Republicans vs. blue-collar Republicans: In the cover story of the latest issue of National Journal, Ron Brownstein sees the 2012 GOP field shaping up to be a contest between the managers (e.g., Romney) and the populists (e.g., Palin). "The populists thunder; the managers reassure. The populists stress their social values; the managers tout their economic competence. The populists rage at the elite; the managers mingle easily with them." More: "Republicans have typically picked nominees who fit the manager mold more closely than the populist one… But the demographic balance of power inside the GOP coalition is shifting downscale, a change that could provide a greater opening for the populists, including Palin if she runs." We're seeing this split inside the GOP in the latest NBC/WSJ poll. Remember, party members are evenly divided on the idea of compromise when necessary. And that divide, once you dig deeper, seems to be along socio-economic lines within the party, rural, working class Republicans are more skeptical of compromise than the white-collar suburban Republicans. http://broadcaster.msnbc.msn.com/t?ctl=25685:B2CA5A050EF65E324C9F808E5F202592&

*** Romney and the tough Boston press corps: Speaking of Romney, it appears that he will have to endure something he confronted in 2007-2008 (and which John Kerry also faced in 2003-2004): a very tough Boston political press corps. The latest example: The Boston Globe's Lehigh takes aim at Romney's positions on New START and the tax deal as pandering: "[F]or those eagerly awaiting the new, improved 2012 Romney, a word of caution: Don't get your hopes too high. So far, the prototype suffers from many of the same flaws that plagued the 2008 model Mitt." And so it begins for Romney… As the only candidate who can be called "a" front-runner, he's going to get a lot more stories like this than the John Thunes or even Haley Barbours of the world. http://broadcaster.msnbc.msn.com/t?ctl=25686:B2CA5A050EF65E324C9F808E5F202592&

*** A final note: Our morning First Read dispatch will be on holiday over the next two weeks, but it will return on Monday, Jan. 3. However, as always, we'll update our blog as news warrants -- especially regarding the outstanding legislative items Congress is considering during the lame duck. So be sure to check our Web site often. Happy Holidays. Merry Christmas. Happy New Year. And Happy Bowl Season.

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CONGRESS: House passes tax deal, which heads to Obama's desk
"A massive bipartisan tax package preventing a big New Year's Day tax hike for millions of Americans is on its way to President Barack Obama for his signature. The measure would extend tax cuts for families at every income level, renew jobless benefits for the long-term unemployed and enact a new one-year cut in Social Security taxes that would benefit nearly every worker who earns a wage." http://broadcaster.msnbc.msn.com/t?ctl=2568A:B2CA5A050EF65E324C9F808E5F202592&
Per NBC's Shawna Thomas, the vote was 277 yes, 148 no, with 139 Democrats voting yes and 36 Republicans voting no. Speaker Nancy Pelosi didn't vote, while Minority Leader John Boehner and Majority Steny Hoyer voted for it, and Majority Whip James Clyburn voted against it.
No: 148
NBC's Savannah Guthrie reports that President Obama will sign the tax-cut bill into law sometime this afternoon. Time TBD.
The Boston Globe: "The 277-to-148 vote was a political victory for President Obama, who made the case for compromise over complaints from the base of the Democratic Party. Some longtime Obama backers fought the president's deal late into the night, contending that he had let middle-class America down by not fighting harder to keep a campaign promise: end the George W. Bush-era tax cuts for wealthy Americans. Instead, the group Obama had to rely on for critical support last night was the one he had spent his first two years battling, Republicans."
http://broadcaster.msnbc.msn.com/t?ctl=2568B:B2CA5A050EF65E324C9F808E5F202592&
Adds the New York Times, "The vote sealed the first major deal between President Obama and Congressional Republicans as Democrats put aside their objections and bowed to the realignment of power brought about by their crushing election losses. The bipartisan support for the tax deal also underscored the urgency felt by the administration and by lawmakers in both parties to prop up the still-struggling economy and to prevent an across-the-board tax increase that was set to occur if the rates enacted under President George W. Bush had expired, as scheduled, at the end of the month." http://broadcaster.msnbc.msn.com/t?ctl=2568C:B2CA5A050EF65E324C9F808E5F202592&
"An attempt to change the bill's estate tax language was rejected, 194-233, on the floor Thursday night. Many House Democrats opposed the bill's 35 percent tax on estates of more than $5 million, and they wanted to replace it with House-passed language that would set a 45 percent tax on estates of more than $3.5 million," Roll Call writes. http://broadcaster.msnbc.msn.com/t?ctl=2568D:B2CA5A050EF65E324C9F808E5F202592&
Reid pulls the omnibus: "Senate majority leader Harry Reid decided last night to abandon a 1,924-page catchall spending measure that's laced with homestate pet projects known as earmarks," the Boston Globe writes. "Instead, Reid said he would work with GOP leader Mitch McConnell, who lambasted the omnibus bill, to produce a short-term bill to keep the government running into early next year." http://broadcaster.msnbc.msn.com/t?ctl=2568E:B2CA5A050EF65E324C9F808E5F202592&
Scott Brown says he'll support the repeal of "Don't Ask Don't Tell." http://broadcaster.msnbc.msn.com/t?ctl=2568F:B2CA5A050EF65E324C9F808E5F202592&
The Hill: "Invoking cloture means that the Senate would take a procedural vote on the repeal legislation on Saturday and a final vote on the bill by Sunday." http://broadcaster.msnbc.msn.com/t?ctl=25690:B2CA5A050EF65E324C9F808E5F202592&
Democrats will miss a voting member on Monday, however, because Sen. Ron Wyden is having surgery to treat early stage prostate cancer. http://broadcaster.msnbc.msn.com/t?ctl=25691:B2CA5A050EF65E324C9F808E5F202592&
"Military leaders dismissed Republican assertions that a new arms treaty with Russia would hamper America's missile defense efforts as supporters tried yesterday to nudge the pact toward ratification in the Senate," the AP writes. "Defense Secretary Robert Gates told reporters at the White House yesterday that the treaty 'in no way limits anything we want or have in mind on missile defense.' Marine General James Cartwright, vice chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, echoed Gates's assertion, saying New START has 'no prohibitions' to America's ability to move forward on missile defense. 'We need START, and we need it badly,' Cartwright said." http://broadcaster.msnbc.msn.com/t?ctl=25692:B2CA5A050EF65E324C9F808E5F202592&

OBAMA AGENDA: Who gets the credit?
The conservative New York Post bills the tax deal passage as a "major victory for Republicans." http://broadcaster.msnbc.msn.com/t?ctl=25693:B2CA5A050EF65E324C9F808E5F202592&
The New York Daily News counters: "Democratic purists can complain all the way to 2012, but President Obama did what he must to save the economy - and himself - from falling into the abyss. The $858 billion tax compromise he cut with resurgent congressional Republicans is the political equivalent of a divorce settlement: a deal that leaves both sides squealing. Obama had the most to lose, so this two-year back-room package is a bigger victory for him than the Republicans who vow to make him miserable when the 112th Congress convenes Jan. 5." http://broadcaster.msnbc.msn.com/t?ctl=25694:B2CA5A050EF65E324C9F808E5F202592&
"About 13.4 million taxpayers may be getting unexpected tax bills because they were awarded too much money under President Obama's Making Work Pay tax credit, a government audit said yesterday," the AP reports. http://broadcaster.msnbc.msn.com/t?ctl=25695:B2CA5A050EF65E324C9F808E5F202592&
Jimmy Carter says the country is ready for a gay president and thinks it will happen soon. http://broadcaster.msnbc.msn.com/t?ctl=25696:B2CA5A050EF65E324C9F808E5F202592&

2012: Palin calls tax deal 'lousy'
CHRISTIE: "In a letter dated Tuesday to U.S. Sens. Frank Lautenberg and Robert Menendez (both D-N.J.), federal Transportation Secretary Ray LaHood offered to return $128 million of the $271 million the feds are charging the state, and deposit that money into a fund to be used for future New Jersey transportation projects," the Newark Star-Ledger reports. "Christie said he has still not heard from LaHood about the offer. 'I'm always happy to talk to Secretary LaHood,' Christie said, adding that he wanted to discuss the tunnel with the federal administration instead of through the press." http://broadcaster.msnbc.msn.com/t?ctl=25697:B2CA5A050EF65E324C9F808E5F202592&
GINGRICH: The Spartanburg Herald Journal: "Former House Speaker Newt Gingrich, a possible 2012 Republican presidential contender, delivered a thoughtful 34-minute speech full of red meat, Orwellian references and philosophical underpinnings at the Spartanburg GOP's annual Bronze Elephant fundraising banquet Thursday night." http://broadcaster.msnbc.msn.com/t?ctl=25698:B2CA5A050EF65E324C9F808E5F202592&
And then there's this: A Dallas strip club gave him a lifetime membership: "Last year former U.S. House Speaker Newt Gingrich mistakenly gave Dallas businesswoman Dawn Rizos an Entrepreneur of the Year Award and invited her to a private Washington dinner to discuss ways to revitalize the economy. For her part, Rizos donated $5,000 to Gingrich's group called American Solutions," the Dallas Morning News writes. "But it turned out that Gingrich had confused Rizos, the owner and CEO of the Lodge, the famed Dallas gentlemen's club, with another businesswoman. After learning of the mistake, Gingrich rescinded Dawn's invite to the dinner. Apparently Gingrich didn't learn from last year's embarrassing episode. He recently sent Rizos an American Solutions membership card and asked for another donation." http://broadcaster.msnbc.msn.com/t?ctl=25699:B2CA5A050EF65E324C9F808E5F202592&
JINDAL: "The presidential commission investigating the BP Gulf of Mexico spill has concluded that Louisiana Gov. Bobby Jindal wasted $220 million building controversial sand berms that captured a "minuscule amount" of oil and proved to be 'underwhelmingly effective' and 'overwhelmingly expensive,'" USA Today writes. http://broadcaster.msnbc.msn.com/t?ctl=2569A:B2CA5A050EF65E324C9F808E5F202592&
PALIN: Palin told ABC her decision on running for president is "months down the road." Palin said, "It's a prayerful consideration because, obviously, the sacrifices that have to be made in order to put yourself forward in the name of public service is, it's brutal." When confronted with poll numbers that would show a steep climb for her against President Obama, she responded, "A poll number like that, it's like, 'Oh yeah, that doesn't look really pretty today,' but a primary is months and months in the process, and there are thankfully many debates," she said. "And if I were to participate in that contested primary -- you know, it -- I would be in it to win it."
Palin also said of John Boehner's crying that there's a "double standard" for women: "I don't know if a woman would be given a pass necessarily. I respect John Boehner because he has worn his feelings on his sleeve on things that are so important to him ... and I give him that pass, too. But that's one of those things where a double standard certainly is applied," she added. "I'm sure if I got up there and did a speech and I started breaking down and cried about how important it is to me that our children and our grandchildren are provided great opportunities, I'm sure that I would be knocked a little bit for that. It makes us work that much harder and be that much tougher and more committed to the message and the mission at hand."
She also called the tax deal "lousy" but praised Obama for "flip-flopping." "He, you know, can term it compromise. I term it flip flop," she said. "I was thankful that he did, but it's still not good enough because our economy is ... at a breaking point and we are on a path towards insolvency if we do not start incentivizing businesses to start producing more in our own country." http://broadcaster.msnbc.msn.com/t?ctl=2569B:B2CA5A050EF65E324C9F808E5F202592&
ROMNEY: The Boston Globe's Lehigh takes aim at Romney's positions on START and the tax deal as pandering: "[F]or those eagerly awaiting the new, improved 2012 Romney, a word of caution: Don't get your hopes too high. So far, the prototype suffers from many of the same flaws that plagued the 2008 model Mitt." http://broadcaster.msnbc.msn.com/t?ctl=25686:B2CA5A050EF65E324C9F808E5F202592&
IOWA: And so it begins… The Ames presidential straw poll will be Aug. 13, 2011. The Iowa GOP "is partnering with Fox News to host a debate on Aug. 11 at" Iowa State University in Ames. http://broadcaster.msnbc.msn.com/t?ctl=2569C:B2CA5A050EF65E324C9F808E5F202592&
A second debate is tentatively set for early 2012, the Des Moines Register notes, adding, "Tying the party fundraiser in Ames with the debate on Fox, an influential outlet for conservatives, will give incentive to candidates campaigning for Iowa's leadoff nominating caucuses to participate in the straw poll, state party chairman Matt Strawn said." http://broadcaster.msnbc.msn.com/t?ctl=2569D:B2CA5A050EF65E324C9F808E5F202592& and http://broadcaster.msnbc.msn.com/t?ctl=2569E:B2CA5A050EF65E324C9F808E5F202592&
NEVADA: "The Nevada Republican Executive Committee voted Wednesday night to hold the party's 2012 presidential caucus on February 18, a decision that could make GOP voters in the "First in the West" state third in line to vote for their party's next nominee," Politico writes. http://broadcaster.msnbc.msn.com/t?ctl=2569F:B2CA5A050EF65E324C9F808E5F202592&
NEW HAMPSHIRE: "Reports that President Barack Obama is vulnerable to a primary challenge in 2012 are exaggerated, according to a new survey conducted by Magellan Mapping and Data Strategies," new website NHJournal reports. "Obama would handily defeat three well-known politicians sometimes mentioned as potential challengers for the 2012 Democratic presidential nomination," Howard Dean, Bernie Sanders and Hilary Clinton. http://broadcaster.msnbc.msn.com/t?ctl=256A0:B2CA5A050EF65E324C9F808E5F202592&