First Thoughts: All eyes on Bowles and Simpson

First Read from NBC News
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First Thoughts: All eyes on Bowles and Simpson

From Chuck Todd, Mark Murray, Domenico Montanaro, and Ali Weinberg

FIRST THOUGHTS.
*** All eyes on Bowles and Simpson: With the bipartisan summit working on a compromise to extend the Bush tax cuts, and with the repeal of "Don't Ask, Don't Tell" now in the Senate's hands, the political world turns its attention to President Obama's deficit commission. At 9:30 am ET, co-chairs Erskine Bowles (D) and Alan Simpson (R) lead a public meeting on Capitol Hill to discuss the details of the commission's final proposal, which is expected to offer $4 trillion in savings over the next 10 years. Afterward -- the meeting is expected to last about three hours -- Bowles and Simpson will hold a press conference. The vote on the final proposal has been delayed until Friday to provide more time to get the 14 of 18 votes needed to send the proposal to Congress. "I don't know if we're going to get two votes or five votes or 10 votes or 14 votes," Bowles said yesterday. "But one thing is certain: The problem is real. The solutions are painful. And there are no easy choices." He promised that this new version of the plan won't look like a watered-down version of the proposal the two men floated two weeks ago. http://broadcaster.msnbc.msn.com/t?ctl=228C2:B2CA5A050EF65E3271A1261018B556D9&

*** The race to get 14 votes: The New York Times reports that the three House Republicans on the commission (Dave Camp, Jeb Hensarling, and Paul Ryan) are adamantly opposed to the final proposal because of its tax increases. But the paper adds that the three Senate Republicans (Mike Crapo, Tom Coburn, and Judd Gregg) still have an open mind. So do all the elected Democrats on the panel, except for liberal Rep. Jan Schakowsky. Why, as we've asked before, is it going to be so hard to get 14 of 18 votes? Look no further than our most recent NBC/WSJ poll. In it, a whopping 70% of adults said they are uncomfortable with cuts to Medicare, Social Security, and defense programs -- which just happen to be the biggest sources of federal spending. Another 59% said they're uncomfortable about raising taxes (on gasoline, for example) or changing the tax code (like eliminating deductions on home mortgages) to reduce the deficit. And another 57% are uncomfortable about raising the Social Security retirement age to 69 by 2075 to reduce the deficit. Despite the rhetoric, this is one issue where the public is NOT demanding specific action. The only shot Washington has of doing this is holding hands and jumping off the political cliff… together. http://broadcaster.msnbc.msn.com/t?ctl=228C3:B2CA5A050EF65E3271A1261018B556D9&

*** Tax working group meets this morning: Turning to the bipartisan work to find a compromise on the Bush tax cuts, a White House official tells NBC News that Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner and OMB Director Jack Lew will hold their first working meeting on Capitol Hill this morning with the other designated negotiators -- Sens. Max Baucus (D) and Jon Kyl (R) and Reps. Dave Camp (R) and Chris Van Hollen (D). The appointment of Baucus to this working group is telling, because he knows how to get 60 votes. Ditto the appointment of Van Hollen, because (as the former DCCC head) he understands what a tough vote this is for members who hail from swing districts. Folks, we all know how this movie is likely to end (with a temporary extension for all income brackets). The question is what Democrats can get in return (extension of unemployment benefits, a promise to vote on START, etc.?) By the way, did anyone else notice how Pelosi and Reid took a back seat -- at least publicly -- in yesterday's bipartisan meeting? It's the president vs. congressional Republicans, with congressional Dems staying silent? How long will that last?

*** Gates' shrewd argument: Yesterday, Defense Secretary Gates made a shrewd argument to convince the Senate to repeal "Don't Ask, Don't Tell": If Congress doesn't overturn the ban -- with an orderly plan for implementation -- then the courts inevitably will, which could create chaos for the military. Gates' translation: Let's do this now and our way rather than have the courts do it for us. The question is whether there are 60-plus senators who will buy that argument. Using the fear of a court order might actually be enough to sway some Republicans. The LA Times: "Opposition in Congress is likely to focus on divisions among the military's senior civilian and uniformed personnel about whether to overturn the law, especially during wartime. The Senate Armed Services Committee will hold hearings Thursday and Friday at which top Pentagon leaders are scheduled to testify." http://broadcaster.msnbc.msn.com/t?ctl=228C4:B2CA5A050EF65E3271A1261018B556D9&

*** 2012 watch: According to CQ, the three senators who sponsored the largest amount in earmarks in 2010 were Thad Cochran (MS), Roger Wicker (MS), and Orrin Hatch (UT). But what happened yesterday? Wicker and Hatch, MSNBC.com's Carrie Dann notes, voted FOR the Senate earmark ban that failed to pass yesterday. What do Wicker and Hatch have in common: They're up in 2012 (and might want to avoid a primary challenge from the right). Other Republicans up in 2012 who voted for the ban included Olympia Snowe (ME), Jon Kyl (AZ), and John Ensign (NV). As for the emerging presidential race, Mitt Romney appears on Leno tonight, while Newt Gingrich speaks at 1:00 pm ET to American Legislative Exchange Council's State and National Policy Summit in DC. http://broadcaster.msnbc.msn.com/t?ctl=228C5:B2CA5A050EF65E3271A1261018B556D9&

*** The governors are coming, the governors are coming: The Democratic Governors Association today is gathering in DC, where it will announce its new leadership team for 2011 at a 1:15 pm ET press conference. There will be three gubernatorial contests next year -- in Kentucky, Louisiana, and Mississippi. Among the Democratic governors and governors-elect who will be in attendance at the meeting: current DGA Chair Jack Markell (DE), Vice Chair Martin O'Malley (MD), Gov.-elect Neil Abercrombie (HI), Gov. Steve Beshear (KY), outgoing Gov. Chet Culver (IA), Gov.-elect John Kitzhaber (OR), and outgoing Gov. Ted Strickland (OH). Meanwhile, Speaker-in-waiting Boehner today meets with several GOP governors-elect.

*** Race to head RNC is underway, with or without Steele: Although the full RNC chair field is far from set -- and we've yet to hear whether Michael Steele will run for a second term -- the Republican National Conservative Caucus is hosting an RNC chair candidate forum in DC beginning at 2:00 pm ET. The forum is to be moderated by Freedom Works, one of the movers and shakers in the Tea Party movement. Expected to participate at the forum: Michigan committeeman Saul Anuzis, former Missouri party chair Ann Wagner, Connecticut GOP chair Chris Healy, and former RNC political director Gentry Collins. Former RNC deputy chair Maria Cino was expected to be there, but it's unclear that she will attend.
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OBAMA AGENDA: Deficit commission's delay
"Leaders of President Obama's fiscal commission have drafted a new plan to rebalance the federal budget that would cut government spending even deeper than their original proposal, while offering more help to some retirees. But they decided Tuesday to delay a final vote on the package, as they struggled to build a convincing bipartisan consensus," the Washington Post reports. http://broadcaster.msnbc.msn.com/t?ctl=228C9:B2CA5A050EF65E3271A1261018B556D9&
Can the deficit commission get the 14 out of 18 votes it needs to move the final proposal to Congress? It won't be easy. The New York Times: "Among the lawmakers, the Republicans generally oppose the chairmen's draft plan because of its tax increases for upper-income Americans. The elected Republicans on the panel are Senators Judd Gregg of New Hampshire, Tom Coburn of Oklahoma and Michael D. Crapo of Idaho, and Representatives Dave Camp of Michigan, Paul D. Ryan of Wisconsin and Jeb Hensarling of Texas. The elected Democrats on the commission are resisting the scale of proposed reductions from future health care and Social Security programs, according to people familiar with the discussions. Those Democrats are Senators Richard J. Durbin of Illinois, Max Baucus of Montana and Kent Conrad of North Dakota, and Representatives Jan Schakowsky of Illinois, Xavier Becerra of California, and John M. Spratt Jr. of South Carolina."
"While the three House Republicans are said by people involved in the deliberations to be unbending in their opposition to the blueprint developed by the chairmen, the three Senate Republicans are not. Similarly, except for Ms. Schakowsky, the Democratic House and Senate members are said to be still negotiating with one another and the chairmen toward some compromise. 'Regardless of how the vote turns out,' Mr. Bowles said at a news conference on Tuesday, he and Mr. Simpson will have won by demonstrating the difficult choices to be made on taxes and spending. 'The era of deficit denial in Washington is over,' he said." http://broadcaster.msnbc.msn.com/t?ctl=228C3:B2CA5A050EF65E3271A1261018B556D9&
The Boston Globe: "Ending a ban on gays serving openly in the armed services would not harm long-term military effectiveness, the Pentagon said yesterday in a long-awaited report that is expected to speed a vote on the repeal of the 'don't ask, don't tell' policy… That call shifted the focus to moderate members of the Senate, including Scott Brown of Massachusetts, who had said they wanted to read the report before voting on whether to end the policy." Brown said, "I haven't looked at it. As soon as I get back to the office and get a free minute, I'll start digesting it." http://broadcaster.msnbc.msn.com/t?ctl=228CA:B2CA5A050EF65E3271A1261018B556D9&
The New York Daily News: "Gates pressed the Senate to enact repeal quickly in the lameduck session, saying that avoiding the issue would amount to "rolling the dice" on the courts taking action." http://broadcaster.msnbc.msn.com/t?ctl=228CB:B2CA5A050EF65E3271A1261018B556D9&
The New York Times' Leonhardt explains why Democrats and the Obama White House are negotiating from a position of weakness on extending the Bush tax cuts. "If they cannot come up with a plan that can win 60 votes in the Senate, which means at least two Republican votes, Republicans can filibuster any bill. All of the tax cuts would then expire on Dec. 31. When the new Republican House majority arrives in January, it will be able to make its first order of business a retroactive tax cut — forcing President Obama and Senate Democrats to choose between a purely Republican plan and an across-the-board tax increase." http://broadcaster.msnbc.msn.com/t?ctl=228CC:B2CA5A050EF65E3271A1261018B556D9&
Look who stopped by yesterday… "Former President Jimmy Carter paid a surprise visit to President Obama while at the White House on Tuesday," The Hill writes. http://broadcaster.msnbc.msn.com/t?ctl=228CD:B2CA5A050EF65E3271A1261018B556D9&

CONGRESS: Our way -- or the highway
"Senate Republicans intend to block action on virtually all Democrat-backed legislation unrelated to tax cuts and government spending in the current postelection session of Congress, officials said yesterday, adding that the leadership has quietly collected signatures on a letter pledging to carry out the strategy," the AP writes. "A nuclear arms treaty with Russia that President Obama wants ratified would not be affected, because any debate would take place under rules different from those that apply to legislation. Even so, its passage is not assured as Republicans are seeking concessions from the White House… It was not known how many of the Senate's 42 Republicans had signed the draft letter, which the leadership intends to make public quickly." http://broadcaster.msnbc.msn.com/t?ctl=228CE:B2CA5A050EF65E3271A1261018B556D9&
At 12:30 pm ET on Capitol Hill, Democrats Nancy Pelosi, George Miller, Jim McDermott, and Tom Harkin -- along with Labor Secretary Hilda Solis and AFL-CIO Secretary Treasurer Liz Shuler -- will call for a one-year extension of jobless benefits.
"Republican opposition to an arms pact with Russia appeared to be thawing yesterday, as a few key Republicans, including Arizona Senator John McCain, said they would be open to voting on the treaty during the lame-duck session," the AP writes, adding, "The renewed optimism about the treaty follows weeks of intensive lobbying and behind-the-scenes negotiations by Senator John F. Kerry of Massachusetts, chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, who flew to Washington last week for a 90-minute strategy meeting with Vice President Joe Biden. On Monday, Kerry gave a strongly worded speech on the Senate floor accusing his colleagues of engaging in a 'partisan food fight' over the treaty. Kerry, who needs nine Republican votes to reach the 67 needed for ratification, spent much of his Thanksgiving weekend in telephone calls with fellow senators, including Massachusetts Republican Scott Brown." http://broadcaster.msnbc.msn.com/t?ctl=228CF:B2CA5A050EF65E3271A1261018B556D9&
"The House ethics committee released its resolution [yesterday] calling for the formal punishment of Harlem Rep. Charlie Rangel," the New York Daily News writes. "As expected, the committee recommends that the full House subject the Harlem Democrat to the humiliation of a full censure, where he is commanded to 'forthwith present himself in the well of the House' so Speaker Nancy Pelosi can read the formal findings against Rangel." http://broadcaster.msnbc.msn.com/t?ctl=228D0:B2CA5A050EF65E3271A1261018B556D9&
"In what would be the biggest overhaul of the nation's food safety laws in seven decades, the Senate on Tuesday approved a raft of regulations that would require food manufacturers and farmers to use scientific techniques to prevent contaminated food - a shift aimed at stopping the waves of foodborne illnesses that have shaken consumer confidence in the safety of the food supply," the Washington Post says. "The vote of 73 to 25 cleared the way for the legislation to be signed into law in the coming weeks, delivering a revamped safety system that would confer vast new authority on the Food and Drug Administration, accelerate the government's response to outbreaks and set the first safety standards for imported food. The changes come after tainted foods as varied as spinach and peanuts recently sickened thousands nationwide and caused at least a dozen deaths." http://broadcaster.msnbc.msn.com/t?ctl=228CC:B2CA5A050EF65E3271A1261018B556D9&
"Congress gave the final go-ahead Tuesday to a landmark $1.2 billion settlement compensating black farmers for decades of discrimination, even as Minnesota Republican Michele Bachmann and other conservatives charged that the deal is riddled with fraudulent claims," the Minneapolis Star Tribune reports. Bachmann said, "This looks like one of the most outrageously fraudulent claims of scamming the federal taxpayers that anyone has ever seen. It's indefensible." More: "Bachmann responded that she has never received 'one penny' from her in-laws' family farm in Independence, Wis., even though she reported between $15,001 and $50,000 in 'farm income' on her federal financial disclosure forms this year. She and her husband also list a stake in the farm valued at up to $250,000." http://broadcaster.msnbc.msn.com/t?ctl=228D1:B2CA5A050EF65E3271A1261018B556D9&

GOP WATCH: RNC chair race
Roll Call looks at the race for RNC chairman: "Since his party won back the House, picked up six Senate seats and made massive gains in state Houses and governorships last month, two bombs have dropped on Steele. The first was political director Gentry Collins' resignation letter, which laid out problems at the committee since Steele took charge in 2009. Collins has since said he's considering running for chairman and will attend Wednesday's panel. The second was the revelation that the committee has already spent hundreds of thousands of dollars on the 2012 convention to be held in Tampa, Fla., in August 2012 and that Steele may be considering a deal to leave his current job to run the convention."
There's a forum today for the job. Steele won't be there. "Only two Republicans, Michigan GOP Chairman Saul Anuzis and former RNC Co-Chairwoman Ann Wagner from Missouri, have publicly announced they will run for the job so far, and both will participate in today's panel," Roll Call writes. "Collins and Connecticut Republican Party Chairman Chris Healy will also attend. Organizers said Maria Cino, CEO of the 2008 Republican National Convention, will also participate in the panel, but a source close to Cino said she will not be there." http://broadcaster.msnbc.msn.com/t?ctl=228D2:B2CA5A050EF65E3271A1261018B556D9&
GOP strategist Mary Matalin is backing Cino -- though Matalin isn't one of the 168 committee members who has a vote on the next chairman. http://broadcaster.msnbc.msn.com/t?ctl=228D3:B2CA5A050EF65E3271A1261018B556D9&
2010: Dayton continues to lead
MINNESOTA: "Before the recount, Emmer trailed DFLer Mark Dayton by nearly 9,000 votes. Since the recount began Monday, Dayton has lost 38 votes and Emmer has lost one, according to results posted by the secretary of state's office. As of Tuesday night, 69.9 percent of the ballots had been recounted," the Minneapolis Star Tribune writes. "Emmer's camp has challenged 597 ballots and Dayton's has challenged 143; those ballots are taken out of the mix and will be reviewed by the state Canvassing Board." http://broadcaster.msnbc.msn.com/t?ctl=228D4:B2CA5A050EF65E3271A1261018B556D9&
NEW YORK: NY-1: In the one remaining uncalled House race… "After the counting of 71 military ballots this morning, Mr. Altschuler trails Mr. Bishop by 214 votes, according to the Altschuler campaign, or 215 votes, according to the Bishop campaign. The Suffolk County Board of Elections has not released an official count," the Southampton Press writes. The race is in the courts and could drag on for weeks. http://broadcaster.msnbc.msn.com/t?ctl=228D5:B2CA5A050EF65E3271A1261018B556D9&
2012: Learning a lesson from '08?
FLORIDA: "Florida Republicans likely will abandon their effort to force the state into the ranks of early presidential primary states in 2012," the Tampa Tribune reports. "Instead, the party may seek to revive a controversial but sometimes momentous Florida political tradition -- a presidential candidates' debate and straw poll held before the primaries." http://broadcaster.msnbc.msn.com/t?ctl=228D6:B2CA5A050EF65E3271A1261018B556D9&
IOWA: The Des Moines Register advises Sarah Palin on how to gain credibility among voters in the first-caucus, first-primary state: get out there and shake hands. "Palin, if she runs, will write some new rules. But the one about meeting voters at their level should not be cast aside. The caucuses are no casual romance. She would have to give up some of her image control and privacy. But what she would get in return are genuine and unscripted encounters with voters who will challenge her." http://broadcaster.msnbc.msn.com/t?ctl=228D7:B2CA5A050EF65E3271A1261018B556D9&
MISSOURI: "Fewer than 50,000 votes separated Democratic challenger Claire McCaskill and Republican incumbent Jim Talent in Missouri's 2006 U.S. Senate race — a difference of only about a dozen votes from each precinct. McCaskill won. Now McCaskill and Talent may be headed toward a role-reversal rematch in the 2012 elections. This time, McCaskill will be the incumbent. And Talent could be the challenger," the AP reports. http://broadcaster.msnbc.msn.com/t?ctl=228D8:B2CA5A050EF65E3271A1261018B556D9&

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