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First Read: What GOP control of the House means -- and doesn't mean
From Chuck Todd, Mark Murray, Domenico Montanaro, and Ali Weinberg
FIRST THOUGHTS.
*** What GOP control of the House means… : It isn't every day on Capitol Hill when a political party regains control of the House of Representatives; in fact, it's now happened only seven times since World War II. Yet as John Boehner today becomes the House's 53rd different speaker, it's important to distinguish what this GOP control means and doesn't mean. Here's what it DOES mean. One, Republicans now get to control everything in the chamber. As NBC's Mike Viqueira has pointed out, this is everything from which bills will be considered for debate on the floor (like the upcoming vote to repeal the health law), to what is served for lunch in the cafeteria. Two, it means that Democrats lose their ability to pass legislation without significant GOP support. (Example: If President Obama is able to sign immigration-reform legislation into law, it will have to be a final bill crafted by both the Dem-controlled Senate and the GOP-controlled House.) And three, it will probably mean plenty of partisan bickering -- though that won't necessarily be new. http://broadcaster.msnbc.msn.com/t?ctl=27F76:B2CA5A050EF65E322917DA06028E9AC1& and http://broadcaster.msnbc.msn.com/t?ctl=27F77:B2CA5A050EF65E322917DA06028E9AC1&
*** … and what it doesn't mean: But GOP control of the House DOESN'T mean that Republicans have the ability to clear legislation they want to, especially with Dems in control of the Senate and White House. (Example: The health-care repeal is likely to go nowhere in 2011-12.) It also doesn't mean that we'll see a flurry of vetoes by President Obama. (The reason: With Dems in charge of the Senate, any legislation that advances to the president's desk will have say from the White House and Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid, who's essentially the president's pocket veto.) And it doesn't mean we'll only see congressional gridlock. (After all, it was a Democratic president and a GOP Congress that passed welfare reform in the mid-1990s.) The biggest challenge for Boehner: the expectations game. "The problem is going to be the grassroots movement out in the countryside," GOP strategist Vin Weber tells the New York Times. "They have no sense of the limits on a party that controls only one of the three seats of power. Managing that relationship is going to be difficult." http://broadcaster.msnbc.msn.com/t?ctl=27F78:B2CA5A050EF65E322917DA06028E9AC1&
*** "The people's House": In his speech today after receiving the gavel from outgoing Speaker Nancy Pelosi, Boehner will call the House the "people's House," per NBC's Luke Russert. "The American people have humbled us. They have refreshed our memories as to just how temporary the privilege to serve is," Boehner will say, according to advanced excerpts of his speech. "They have reminded us that everything here is on loan from them. That includes this gavel, which I accept cheerfully and gratefully, knowing I am but its caretaker. After all, this is the people's House. This is their Congress. It's about them, not us. What they want is a government that is honest, accountable and responsive to their needs. A government that respects individual liberty, honors our heritage, and bows before the public it serves." On debt and spending, Boehner will say, per NBC's Kelly O'Donnell: "No longer can we kick the can down the road. The people voted to end business as usual, and today we begin carrying out their instructions."
*** Today's House tick-tock: Here's the approximate schedule for today's events in the House: At noon ET, the clerk of the past Congress calls the House to order, which is followed by a prayer by the chaplain and then the Pledge of Allegiance. At 12:40 pm, the clerk will receive nominations for speaker, with Dem Caucus Chairman John Larson (D-CT) nominating Pelosi and GOP Caucus Chairman Jeb Hensarling (R-TX) will nominate Boehner. After that, the roll is called. At 1:45 pm, the clerk announces the results from the vote, which Boehner is expected to easily win. At 2:00 pm, Pelosi will introduce Boehner, and she will make brief remarks. And then Boehner will address the House. At 2:20 pm, Rep. John Dingell -- the dean of the House -- will administer the oath to Boehner, and then Boehner will administer the oath to the members-elect.
*** Today's Senate tick-tock: Per NBC's Ken Strickland, here's the latest guidance for the Senate's opening day: The chamber also convenes at noon ET, with the presentation of credentials of re-elected and newly elected. Then Vice President Biden begins swearing in these members on the Senate floor (it happens in groups of four, in alphabetical order). After the swearing-ins, Sen. Tom Udall (D) is expected to offer his resolution on filibuster reform, but the matter won't be addressed until the Senate returns after its two-week recess on Jan. 24. There likely will be speeches from Udall and fellow Democrats Jeff Merkley, Tom Harkin, Amy Klobuchar, Ron Wyden, and Claire McCaskill on changing the Senate rules. There also might be speeches celebrating the milestone for Sen. Barbara Mikulski, who today becomes the chamber's longest-serving female senator.
*** The 112th Congress, by the numbers: In the new Congress, Republicans will hold a 242-193 advantage. In the Senate, Democrats will retain a 53-47 majority. (Two senators are independent but caucus with the Democrats). There are 96 new members of the House (87 Republicans, nine Democrats), and that's the largest percentage of new members since '92. The House will include 43 Tea Party-backed members. The Senate will have five Tea Party-backed members. In total, in the Senate, there will be 16 new members (13 Republicans, three Democrats) -- the largest freshman class in that chamber since 1980.
*** Those who forgot the past are doomed to repeat it: Outside the emerging presidential contest, the battle between the Democratic White House and the GOP House will be Washington's best political story. And, of course, it's a battle we saw in the 1990s, when Bill Clinton tangled with Newt Gingrich. If you're interested in the lessons learned from that conflict, a good guide would be this book by legendary political reporter Elizabeth Drew: "Showdown: The Struggle between the Gingrich Congress and the Clinton White House." In her first chapter, which takes place on the day of Gingrich's swearing-in as speaker, Drew writes, "Would Clinton or Gingrich be seriously damaged -- or strengthened -- by the events of 1995?... [W]ould the Republicans understand the mandate of the 1994 election, or would they go beyond it? And how would the American people react?"
*** If asked, Daley will accept: Regarding the staff reshuffling at the White House, we can report this: If former Clinton Commerce Secretary Bill Daley is offered the chief of staff job, he will accept.
*** McConnell's reminder: As mentioned above, Democrats' first order of legislative business in the Senate will be an effort to change the Senate rules, limiting the minority party's ability to filibuster or block legislation, NBC's Strickland has reported. But Republican Leader Mitch McConnell is reminding Democrats they fought this fight before, almost 15 years to the day, and lost soundly. In an op-ed in today's Washington Post, McConnell recalls the first vote of the 104th Congress on Jan. 5, 1995. It was a bill offered by Democratic Sen. Tom Harkin that would have allowed a simple majority of 51 votes to break a filibuster instead of the 60 this is required under current Senate rules. That proposal failed by a vote of 76-19. "What every Republican senator, and many Democratic senators, realized at the time was that any attempt by a sitting majority to grasp at power would come back to haunt us," McConnell writes. http://broadcaster.msnbc.msn.com/t?ctl=27F79:B2CA5A050EF65E322917DA06028E9AC1&
*** Meet the players to watch: MSNBC's "Daily Rundown" today is profiling some of the key House and Senate members to watch in the 112th Congress. And here are things you might not have known about them:
-- GOP Sen. Jim DeMint: ran a market research firm before he ran for office
-- Incoming House Oversight and Government Reform Chairman Darrell Issa: a key funder of the campaign to recall CA Gov. Gray Davis (he initially tried to run to replace him, but dropped out shortly after); before coming to Congress in 2001, ran a car alarm company
-- House Oversight Ranking Member Elijah Cummings: was a defense attorney before coming to Congress in 1997
-- Incoming House Budget Chairman Paul Ryan: came to Congress at age 28, worked as then-Sen. Sam Brownback's legislative director for two years
-- Incoming House Appropriations Chairman Hal Rogers: known to lead constituent tours of the capital and share bits of trivia and history with the tourists; once rejected calls to run for governor because he couldn't give up his position in the appropriations committee
Countdown to release of the monthly jobs report: 2 days
Countdown to the RNC chair election: 9 days
Countdown Chicago's mayoral election: 48 days
Countdown to Election Day 2011: 307 days
Countdown to the Iowa caucuses: 397 days
* Note: When the IA caucuses take place depends on whether other states move up
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CONGRESS: The GOP's agenda
"Almost as soon as they take control of the House at noon Wednesday, Republicans will embark on a 20-day plan aimed at undoing major aspects of President Obama's agenda as they seek to take advantage of the weeks before the Senate's return and the president's State of the Union address," the Washington Post says. The first move will come Friday, when the House begins the process of repealing the new health-care law. House leaders will then quickly begin to identify tens of billions of dollars in proposed spending cuts and to ease regulations that businesses find burdensome. Much of what Republicans do will be symbolic, given that Democrats still control the Senate and the White House." http://broadcaster.msnbc.msn.com/t?ctl=27F7D:B2CA5A050EF65E322917DA06028E9AC1&
The New York Times on Boehner's challenge: "'The problem is going to be the grass-roots movement out in the countryside,' said Vin Weber, a former Republican House member and Washington lobbyist who served with Mr. Boehner in the 1990s. 'They have no sense of the limits on a party that controls only one of the three seats of power. Managing that relationship is going to be difficult.'" http://broadcaster.msnbc.msn.com/t?ctl=27F78:B2CA5A050EF65E322917DA06028E9AC1&
Roll Call makes a similar point: Boehner "must appease a flock of conservative and ambitious GOP freshmen while putting in place a strategy for his party to expand its Congressional majority and win the White House in 2012." http://broadcaster.msnbc.msn.com/t?ctl=27F7E:B2CA5A050EF65E322917DA06028E9AC1&
The Hill reminds that becoming Speaker is something of a comeback for Boehner, who 12 years ago was "ousted from the Republican leadership." http://broadcaster.msnbc.msn.com/t?ctl=27F7F:B2CA5A050EF65E322917DA06028E9AC1&
Roll Call previews Nancy Pelosi's last speech as speaker: She will "vow to 'fight for American jobs' and reduce the deficit during her final speech on the House floor before her successor takes the gavel Wednesday. The California Democrat will pledge that her Caucus 'will judge what comes before Congress by whether it creates jobs, strengthens our middle class, and reduces the deficit -- not burdening future generations with debt,' according to excerpts released by her office." http://broadcaster.msnbc.msn.com/t?ctl=27F80:B2CA5A050EF65E322917DA06028E9AC1&
The Washington Post details what congressional Democrats hope to accomplish in the 112th Congress. "Democratic leaders say they could take up the cause of deficit reduction, urge a free-trade agreement with South Korea and advocate for an overhaul of the nation's immigration laws. All of these issues have something in common: They will require support from lawmakers in both parties to have any hope of passing." http://broadcaster.msnbc.msn.com/t?ctl=27F81:B2CA5A050EF65E322917DA06028E9AC1&
Democratic Rep. Dan Boren of Oklahoma says he'll back the repeal of health care when it comes up for a vote in the House Jan. 12. http://broadcaster.msnbc.msn.com/t?ctl=27F82:B2CA5A050EF65E322917DA06028E9AC1&
As for the Senate, how about this quote from a Democratic aide about the relationship between Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid and Minority Leader Mitch McConnell: "They are as close as two people with limited social skills can be." http://broadcaster.msnbc.msn.com/t?ctl=27F83:B2CA5A050EF65E322917DA06028E9AC1&
OBAMA AGENDA: The reshuffle
"Obama has been mulling for months the possibility of naming former commerce secretary William Daley to be his chief of staff, meeting with him at least once in person, two Democrats said," the Washington Post front-pages. "Although familiar with the Daley family - William is the brother of Chicago Mayor Richard Daley - Obama did not have a personal relationship with William Daley and wanted to get to know him better. The secret has been tightly held, without as much as a mention in senior staff meetings, an administration official said."
"But it is only part of a potentially much larger reorganization that encompasses almost the entire West Wing hierarchy, including those who have had the most influence over the administration's direction in its first two years. Among the biggest changes could be the departure of press secretary Robert Gibbs , who is said to be exploring the possibility of leaving the White House altogether, perhaps to set up his own consulting shop and play a leading role in the 2012 campaign, two Democrats said. That move could happen in the coming weeks." http://broadcaster.msnbc.msn.com/t?ctl=27F84:B2CA5A050EF65E322917DA06028E9AC1&
The New York Times: "With Mr. Obama back at the White House on Tuesday after a holiday vacation in Hawaii, White House aides said some personnel decisions could be announced perhaps this week. Among the announcements expected soon is a successor to Lawrence H. Summers, who has returned to teach at Harvard, as the chief White House economic adviser. The leading candidate is believed to be Gene Sperling, who held the job under President Bill Clinton and is currently a counselor to the Treasury secretary, Timothy F. Geithner." http://broadcaster.msnbc.msn.com/t?ctl=27F85:B2CA5A050EF65E322917DA06028E9AC1&
"President Obama's strategy for dealing with the new Republican majority in the House is to stay above the fray and look presidential for the 2012 race," The Hill's Youngman writes. "The president gave a preview of that strategy during his trip home from his Christmas vacation in Hawaii, when he ventured back to Air Force One's press cabin and suggested he would essentially take a spectator's role while House Republicans beat their chests and howl." http://broadcaster.msnbc.msn.com/t?ctl=27F86:B2CA5A050EF65E322917DA06028E9AC1&
On the other hand, the New York Daily News notes, "President Obama will use his bully pulpit to launch a populist pushback against Republicans, who take control of the House on Wednesday. En route to Washington on Tuesday from a Hawaii vacation, Obama signaled his emerging to paint the GOP as more interested in scoring points than helping ordinary people." http://broadcaster.msnbc.msn.com/t?ctl=27F87:B2CA5A050EF65E322917DA06028E9AC1&
Health and Human Services Secretary Sebelius has an op-ed in the Chicago Tribune, defending the health-care law. She writes, "Repeal would slam the brakes on this progress, taking control away from families and their doctors and putting it back in the hands of insurance companies. Before any member of Congress considers taking such a reckless step backward, he or she should think through exactly what repeal would mean." http://broadcaster.msnbc.msn.com/t?ctl=27F88:B2CA5A050EF65E322917DA06028E9AC1&
French President Sarkozy will be at the White House Monday. http://broadcaster.msnbc.msn.com/t?ctl=27F89:B2CA5A050EF65E322917DA06028E9AC1&
GOP WATCH: Boehner makes call for Cino.
Roll Call writes that John Boehner made at least one call on behalf of Maria Cino for RNC chair: "Boehner, a friend of Cino's at least since she ran the National Republican Congressional Committee in the mid-1990s, previously said he wouldn't endorse a candidate for RNC chairman." http://broadcaster.msnbc.msn.com/t?ctl=27F8A:B2CA5A050EF65E322917DA06028E9AC1&
Former Bush official Bradley Blakeman has an op-ed on FoxNews.com with this headline: "Steele Does Not Have the Mettle To Remain As RNC Chair." He writes, "Whoever is elected, one thing is sure and that is the RNC needs to re-group. The Party needs a top to bottom shake-up in staffing, financing, direction, purpose and leadership." http://broadcaster.msnbc.msn.com/t?ctl=27F8B:B2CA5A050EF65E322917DA06028E9AC1&
The New York Times looks at life for Dick Cheney now. Cheney participated in a fundraiser for RNC chair candidate Maria Cino. "But for the most part, Mr. Cheney, 69, has put aside his public role as the fiery, combative political figure of the last two years, who seemed to relish every opportunity to engage in verbal jousting with President Obama… [F]amily members and friends paint a portrait of a man less focused on the day-to-day back-and-forth in Washington and one more interested in documenting his years of service in a memoir and navigating life with his new pump… Mr. Cheney, who has participated in some of the nation's toughest decisions for decades, now faces a crucial one of his own: whether to seek a full heart transplant." More: "But in the meantime, Mr. Cheney has begun resuming his old activities. Besides the Cino fund-raiser, he attended a round of holiday parties in Washington — leaving whispers in his trail about his weight loss." http://broadcaster.msnbc.msn.com/t?ctl=27F8C:B2CA5A050EF65E322917DA06028E9AC1&
2012: Shots are fired
DANIELS: The New York Times economic columnist David Leonhardt has a Q&A with Daniels and points out what he calls two "blemishes" on the Indiana governors' fiscal record, including what he called his failure to "prevent the Bush administration from turning a big surplus into a huge deficit — not just through the [Iraq] war, but through tax cuts and other policies, too," while Daniels served as George W. Bush's budget director. "If he runs for president, that question deserves to be a big part of the vetting of Mr. Daniels by the media, his opponents and the voters." http://broadcaster.msnbc.msn.com/t?ctl=27F8D:B2CA5A050EF65E322917DA06028E9AC1& and http://broadcaster.msnbc.msn.com/t?ctl=27F8E:B2CA5A050EF65E322917DA06028E9AC1&
DEMINT: "[T]here's one conservative who, oddly enough, has been withholding judgment on the 2012 crop. That's South Carolina Sen. Jim DeMint," writes Christian Heinze of GOP12 and The Hill. "What makes his optimism particularly striking is his famed dissatisfaction with candidates who either strike him as insufficiently conservative or lacking the personal moral values to frame a strong career in public service. For example, he told Bloomberg News last year that it would be 'bothersome to me just personally' to have a gay in the White House and also told the magazine World that he was 'just going to have to create pain' for Republican colleagues who didn't adhere to what he viewed as fundamental conservatism." http://broadcaster.msnbc.msn.com/t?ctl=27F8F:B2CA5A050EF65E322917DA06028E9AC1&
PENCE: "Dozens of prominent conservatives are scheduled to gather this weekend at the swanky Sanctuary Hotel resort on Kiawah Island in South Carolina, where Indiana Republican Rep. Mike Pence will keynote the invitation-only Awakening Conference's annual black tie dinner," Politico reports. "Pence joins a parade of other potential GOP 2012 hopefuls who have previously addressed the conference, now held in a key early primary state: Mike Huckabee, Rick Santorum, Jim DeMint and Mitt Romney have all appeared at the gathering at some point in its 16-year history." http://broadcaster.msnbc.msn.com/t?ctl=27F90:B2CA5A050EF65E322917DA06028E9AC1&
SANTORUM: The first intra-candidate fight might be breaking out. The Hill reports that potential 2012 hopeful, former Sen. Rick Santorum (R-PA) criticized Mitt Romney on health care. "I think it's hard to see a path for him given the 'Obamacare' issue," Santorum said, noting the similarities between the healthcare plan championed by Romney and the one enacted by congressional Democrats and signed into law by President Obama last year. "It's just hard for me to see how he gets past that [in a Republican primary]." http://broadcaster.msnbc.msn.com/t?ctl=27F91:B2CA5A050EF65E322917DA06028E9AC1&
And in an interview with National Journal, Santorum also took shots at Romney, as well as Sarah Palin: "I like her a lot, but I'm not too sure that … ," said Santorum in the interview. He paused before restating his response. "Let's put it this way: I'm not waiting for her to decide whether I'm running for president," he continued. "So, to me, she's certainly been a net plus to Republican efforts. She was a huge factor in the last election, to me mostly to the good, maybe not all to the good. But 90 percent is pretty good." More: "Asked directly if Palin is qualified to be president, Santorum responded: 'What does it mean to be qualified to be president? She is born in this country and she's the right age. Those are the qualifications.'" http://broadcaster.msnbc.msn.com/t?ctl=27F92:B2CA5A050EF65E322917DA06028E9AC1&
Read full story:
http://broadcaster.msnbc.msn.com/t?ctl=27F93:B2CA5A050EF65E322917DA06028E9AC1&
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