First Read: What Obama might say tonight

First Read from NBC News
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First Read: What Obama might say tonight

From Chuck Todd, Mark Murray, Domenico Montanaro, and Ali Weinberg

FIRST THOUGHTS.
*** What Obama might say tonight: From his past speeches on tragedy and unprovoked violence, from the guidance we've received from the White House, and from the addresses by his predecessors, we have a pretty good idea what President Obama will probably say in tonight's speech on Saturday's shooting in Arizona. As he did in his 2009 address at Fort Hood, he will honor the fallen, the injured and the heroes, and will share anecdotes he's heard in his personal calls to the families of victims. "We pay tribute to 13 men and women who were not able to escape the horror of war, even in the comfort of home... So we say goodbye to those who now belong to eternity. We press ahead in pursuit of the peace that guided their service." He also surely will condemn the violence, as he did at Ft. Hood. "It may be hard to comprehend the twisted logic that led to this tragedy. But this much we do know -- no faith justifies these murderous and craven acts; no just and loving God looks upon them with favor. For what he has done, we know that the killer will be met with justice -- in this world, and the next." http://broadcaster.msnbc.msn.com/t?ctl=295EB:B2CA5A050EF65E32AEBB6666A527EE4E&

*** Channeling Clinton? In addition, Obama might draw upon what Bill Clinton said memorializing those killed in the 1995 Oklahoma City bombing: to ensure that good overcomes evil. "Let us let our own children know that we will stand against the forces of fear. When there is talk of hatred, let us stand up and talk against it," Clinton said. "When there is talk of violence, let us stand up and talk against it. In the face of death, let us honor life. As St. Paul admonished us, let us not be overcome by evil, but overcome evil with good." And he might echo Clinton's call in '95 for healing. "My fellow Americans, a tree takes a long time to grow, and wounds take a long time to heal. But we must begin. Those who are lost now belong to God. Some day we will be with them. But until that happens, their legacy must be our lives." http://broadcaster.msnbc.msn.com/t?ctl=295EC:B2CA5A050EF65E32AEBB6666A527EE4E&

*** What about civility? But will Obama discuss the current state of American political discourse (before and after Saturday's violence)? That's the big question we have heading into tonight's speech. If he does, he might draw upon words he uttered in his University of Michigan commencement address last spring. "These arguments we're having over government and health care and war and taxes -- these are serious arguments. They should arouse people's passions... But we can't expect to solve our problems if all we do is tear each other down. You can disagree with a certain policy without demonizing the person who espouses it. You can question somebody's views and their judgment without questioning their motives or their patriotism." More: "The problem is that this kind of vilification and over-the-top rhetoric closes the door to the possibility of compromise. It undermines democratic deliberation. It prevents learning –- since, after all, why should we listen to a 'fascist,' or a 'socialist,' or a 'right-wing nut,' or a 'left-wing nut'?" It's also possible that Obama saves his "civility" talk for his State of the Union address on Jan. 25. Remember, he gets two bites at this apple in two VERY big speeches. http://broadcaster.msnbc.msn.com/t?ctl=295ED:B2CA5A050EF65E32AEBB6666A527EE4E&

*** The skinny on the speech: Obama will deliver his speech at 8:00 pm ET at a memorial service at the University of Arizona entitled, "Together We Thrive: Tucson and America." Others attending the event include First Lady Michelle Obama, Attorney General Eric Holder, Homeland Secretary Janet Napolitano, and Supreme Court Justice Anthony Kennedy.

*** Palin breaks her silence: After calls by both supporters and opponents to break her silence after the shooting in Arizona, Sarah Palin has released a nearly eight-minute-long video. Bottom line: She expresses sadness about the events on Saturday, but doesn't apologize for her target/bullseye map or her "don't retreat, instead reload" rhetoric. "Like millions of Americans I learned of the tragic events in Arizona on Saturday, and my heart broke for the innocent victims," Palin says. "No words can fill the hole left by the death of an innocent, but we do mourn for the victims' families as we express our sympathy." Palin adds, "Acts of monstrous criminality stand on their own. They begin and end with the criminals who commit them, not collectively with all the citizens of a state, not with those who listen to talk radio, not with maps of swing districts used by both sides of the aisle." http://broadcaster.msnbc.msn.com/t?ctl=295EE:B2CA5A050EF65E32AEBB6666A527EE4E&

*** Contrasting Obama and Palin on civility: What's fascinating about this Palin video is how she and Obama have completely different worldviews on the issue of political discourse. Here's Palin: "There are those who claim political rhetoric is to blame for the despicable act of this deranged, apparently apolitical criminal. And they claim political debate has somehow gotten more heated just recently. But when was it less heated? Back in those 'calm days' when political figures literally settled their differences with dueling pistols? In an ideal world all discourse would be civil and all disagreements cordial. But our Founding Fathers knew they weren't designing a system for perfect men and women. If men and women were angels, there would be no need for government. Our Founders' genius was to design a system that helped settle the inevitable conflicts caused by our imperfect passions in civil ways. So, we must condemn violence if our Republic is to endure."

*** And here was Obama at the University of Michigan: "But we can't expect to solve our problems if all we do is tear each other down. You can disagree with a certain policy without demonizing the person who espouses it. You can question somebody's views and their judgment without questioning their motives or their patriotism… Now, we've seen this kind of politics in the past. It's been practiced by both fringes of the ideological spectrum, by the left and the right, since our nation's birth. But it's starting to creep into the center of our discourse. And the problem with it is not the hurt feelings or the bruised egos of the public officials who are criticized. Remember, they signed up for it. … The problem is that this kind of vilification and over-the-top rhetoric closes the door to the possibility of compromise. It undermines democratic deliberation. It prevents learning -- since, after all, why should we listen to a 'fascist,' or a 'socialist,' or a 'right-wing nut,' or a left-wing nut'?"

*** Palin's timing: By releasing this video a full 15 hours before tonight's memorial service -- and thanks to the relatively slow day in the political world before tonight -- her video will get plenty of attention. And whether she meant to or not, there will likely be a stark contrast drawn between her words and what the president says tonight. And that leads us to a few questions for folks to ponder: Should she have released this via Web video? Why not do this via interview? Should she have released this video BEFORE today's memorial service or waited until tomorrow? Is it fair to use this video to judge her ability to be presidential at a time of crisis or national tragedy? If so, was this a presidential-caliber speech? There's been a lot of finger-pointing by the very loud base voices on both sides of the political spectrum, most of it playing out on the internet/Twitter/prime-time cable. This video is only going to serve to feed that beast.

*** Tick-tock on today's House resolution: In yet another example of how American politics can change in the blink of an eye, today was supposed to be the day that the House voted to repeal the health-care law. Instead, it's taking up a resolution honoring Rep. Gabrielle Giffords (D) and the other victims in Saturday's shooting, NBC's Luke Russert and Shawna Thomas report. The House convenes at 10:00 am ET, and Speaker Boehner will call up the resolution 10 minutes later. Then Boehner -- followed by House Minority Leader Pelosi, House Majority Leader Cantor, and House Minority Whip Hoyer -- will speak, and then so will rank-and-file members. Between 1:00 pm and 2:00 pm, there will be a recess for a bipartisan prayer service. And after that, members will come back to the House floor to finish remarks. Once everyone speaks (who wants to), the House will vote on the resolution.

*** Programming note: "The Last Word with Lawrence O'Donnell" tonight will interview veteran journalist Bob Woodruff to share his experience of suffering an injury to the brain. On Thursday, O'Donnell will interview Tom DeLay, the former GOP congressional leader who was just sentenced to three years in prison.
Countdown to the RNC chair election: 2 days
Countdown Chicago's mayoral election: 41 days
Countdown to Election Day 2011: 300 days
Countdown to the Iowa caucuses: 390 days
* Note: When the IA caucuses take place depends on whether other states move up
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OBAMA AGENDA: Raising Arizona
"President Obama will focus his speech at a memorial service in Tucson on Wednesday evening on the victims of the attack and on the idea of service to the country, avoiding any overt commentary on the debate over violence and the nation's political culture," the New York Times says. "Instead, Mr. Obama, who was still working with his speechwriters on his remarks on Tuesday, will call for unity among Americans, while trying to honor the victims, including their service to government, as an example to all Americans. He will share the anecdotes about the victims that he has learned during private phone calls to the families, aides said. http://broadcaster.msnbc.msn.com/t?ctl=295F2:B2CA5A050EF65E32AEBB6666A527EE4E&
The Washington Post: "The president is expected to focus on the victims and what he has learned about them from family members over the past few days, White House officials said. The president will also pay special tribute to Giffords, who doctors said Tuesday was showing signs of improvement." http://broadcaster.msnbc.msn.com/t?ctl=295F3:B2CA5A050EF65E32AEBB6666A527EE4E&
Um, isn't this a lot to ask for in a speech? Roll Call has this lead: "President Barack Obama will do more than try to heal the nation with his speech in Tucson, Ariz., tonight: He'll try to recast his presidency and regain the trust of Americans who have lost faith in him over the past two years." And there are a host of Democrats setting the bar. Rep. Gerry Connolly (D-VA) saying he needs to be more "visceral" and less "cerebral" and that he "needs to give us a Bill Clinton moment." Rep. Debbie Wasserman-Schultz said, "He needs to not miss this opportunity" and that "he needs to use the moment as a turning point." Another Dem (blind quote): "To some degree, this is his 'standing on the rubble at ground zero' moment." http://broadcaster.msnbc.msn.com/t?ctl=295F4:B2CA5A050EF65E32AEBB6666A527EE4E&
The Hill: "The address could be a key moment in Obama's presidency, as the nation stops to hear what the president has to say about a shooting that has shaken Capitol Hill and raised questions about the heated rhetoric of today's politics and the security provided for members of Congress." http://broadcaster.msnbc.msn.com/t?ctl=295F5:B2CA5A050EF65E32AEBB6666A527EE4E&
"The president of the US Chamber of Commerce straddled the Democratic and Republican divide yesterday, endorsing the GOP drive to repeal President Obama's signature health care law, yet supporting the White House on immigration and new spending to spur the economy," the AP says. And there was this quote: "When it comes to the nation's economy, we begin 2011 in better shape than we found ourselves last year," Chamber President Tom Donohue said. "The state of American business is improving." http://broadcaster.msnbc.msn.com/t?ctl=295F6:B2CA5A050EF65E32AEBB6666A527EE4E&
"Justice Elena Kagan, hailed last year by President Obama as a defender of 'ordinary citizens,' sided with a Bank of America Corp. unit against an indebted consumer in her first US Supreme Court ruling," per the AP. Ironically, Justice Scalia, usually pro-business, was the lone dissenter arguing the other justices had misread the bankruptcy law. http://broadcaster.msnbc.msn.com/t?ctl=295F7:B2CA5A050EF65E32AEBB6666A527EE4E&

CONGRESS: Sanders raises money off shooting
Roll Call notes that Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders (I) and Tea Party Express sent out fundraising e-mails off of the shooting in Arizona. In part, Sanders wrote, "In light of all of this violence — both actual and threatened — is Arizona a state in which people who are not Republicans are able to participate freely and fully in the democratic process?" And: "On Monday, the Tea Party Express began a fundraising effort to ask supporters to help it fight 'liberals' who are attempting to link their movement to the events in Arizona. Tuesday, it followed that up with a new appeal to 'stand with Sarah Palin, Rush Limbaugh + Tea Party.' Tea Party Express officials asked supporters to give as little as $5 to 'fight back.' 'We want to have our largest fundraising day in the history of our organization and we need your help to achieve this success,' they wrote." http://broadcaster.msnbc.msn.com/t?ctl=295F8:B2CA5A050EF65E32AEBB6666A527EE4E&
Sanders spokesman's response to First Read: "This was an e-mail letter that the senator's campaign sends out, and will continue to send out, to supporters in Vermont and around the country on a regular basis. This quite long newsletter gives the senator's views on the major issues facing our country. Most of the space in this newsletter dealt with the senator's views on the economic implications of what will be happening in the new Congress. Given the enormity of the tragedy in Arizona, however, it would have been absurd not to comment on what happened there.
And so much for staying away from apocalyptic rhetoric: Tea Party Nation sent out an e-mail criticizing Rep. Pete King (R-NY) for wanting to outlaw guns within 1,000 feet of elected officials calling him, the "Republican Idiot of the Day." From the e-mail: "As we say in the South, Congressman Peter King (R-NY) is a few fries shy of a Happy Meal. Idiocy by members of Congress is nothing new. This idiocy threatens not only our Constitutional rights but our very liberty."
Boehner's spokesman said the speaker would not support King's bill. Eric Cantor's spokesman, however, said it is important to read the bill before forming an opinion. http://broadcaster.msnbc.msn.com/t?ctl=295F9:B2CA5A050EF65E32AEBB6666A527EE4E&
The death of the energy lobbyist, former Hill staffer and wife of a White House aide is still being investigated. "Although homicide detectives were called to the scene, a Metropolitan Police Department news release on Monday said a low-speed crash probably caused the fire," Roll Call writes. "It's quite possible that the victim was maneuvering the car and came in contact with some kind of flammable chemical materials," D.C. Fire Department spokesman Pete Piringer told Roll Call on Monday. http://broadcaster.msnbc.msn.com/t?ctl=295FA:B2CA5A050EF65E32AEBB6666A527EE4E&
Roll Call says get used to seeing New Hampshire Sen. Kelly Ayotte in the spotlight. She's a woman, a quarter-century younger than the GOP leadership, and the only one born North of Kentucky. http://broadcaster.msnbc.msn.com/t?ctl=295FB:B2CA5A050EF65E32AEBB6666A527EE4E&

TRAGEDY IN TUCSON: "We don't understand why this happened"
The Washington Post front-pages, "Three days after their son allegedly killed six people and left a congresswoman critically wounded, Jared Lee Loughner's parents issued their first public comments Tuesday night, saying that they, too, cannot comprehend what had motivated the shootings. 'There are no words that can possibly express how we feel. We wish that there were, so we could make you feel better. We don't understand why this happened,' said their statement, signed "the Loughner family." The parents made no mention of their son." http://broadcaster.msnbc.msn.com/t?ctl=295F3:B2CA5A050EF65E32AEBB6666A527EE4E&
The New York Times: "The account by Mr. Loughner's friend, a rare extended interview with someone close to Mr. Loughner in recent years, added some details to the emerging portrait of the suspect and his family. 'He was a nihilist and loves causing chaos, and that is probably why he did the shooting, along with the fact he was sick in the head,' said Zane Gutierrez, 21, who was living in a trailer outside Tucson and met Mr. Loughner sometimes to shoot at cans for target practice." http://broadcaster.msnbc.msn.com/t?ctl=295FC:B2CA5A050EF65E32AEBB6666A527EE4E&
"New Hampshire "voted last week to overturn a ban on weapons in the State House and permit concealed weapons on the House floor and in the visitors' gallery," the Boston Globe reports, adding, "In the aftermath of a shooting rampage in Arizona over the weekend that left a congresswoman in critical condition and six others dead, they have taken on a grim practicality for some lawmakers who say threats of violence have become a fact of elected office. Republicans said the shootings underscored the need for self-protection."
More: "New Hampshire is now one of seven states that allow weapons in a capitol, according to the National Conference of State Legislatures. The vote to permit guns in the State House follows a sweep of office in November that left Republicans holding majorities in both houses of the Legislature. Only the governorship remains in Democratic control." http://broadcaster.msnbc.msn.com/t?ctl=295FD:B2CA5A050EF65E32AEBB6666A527EE4E&
The Boston Globe's editorial page says extended ammo clips should be outlawed, as they were prior to 2004. "Under the Second Amendment, Americans are entitled to own firearms," it writes. "But that does not answer the separate question of whether certain types of weapons are too dangerous for purposes other than the military or law enforcement. With its extended clip, Loughner's weapon fell in this category." http://broadcaster.msnbc.msn.com/t?ctl=295FE:B2CA5A050EF65E32AEBB6666A527EE4E&
Gun sales of the weapon Jared Lee Loughner used doubled, according to one gun store owner in Arizona. http://broadcaster.msnbc.msn.com/t?ctl=295FF:B2CA5A050EF65E32AEBB6666A527EE4E&

2012: Palin speaks out
"Former House Speaker Newt Gingrich (R-Ga.) and Mississippi Gov. Haley Barbour (R) are among a handful of Republicans set to address House GOP lawmakers at their annual retreat this weekend," The Hill reports. http://broadcaster.msnbc.msn.com/t?ctl=29600:B2CA5A050EF65E32AEBB6666A527EE4E&

CHRISTIE: "New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie laid the foundation for the coming year on Tuesday, outlining his proposals for eliminating teacher tenure, stabilizing the public pension system by making public employees work longer and pay more for health benefits and continuing to say no to expensive new projects like a rail tunnel into Manhattan that he scrapped," Bloomberg writes. http://broadcaster.msnbc.msn.com/t?ctl=29601:B2CA5A050EF65E32AEBB6666A527EE4E&

DANIELS: The Indiana governor "used about half of his 30-minute State of the State speech to promote his education proposals, saying he believed there was no time for delay," the Columbus Republic writes of Daniels' speech last night. http://broadcaster.msnbc.msn.com/t?ctl=29602:B2CA5A050EF65E32AEBB6666A527EE4E&

PALIN: She finally put out a lengthier statement on the Arizona shootings -- in a video. She said, in part: "I listened at first puzzled, then with concern, and now with sadness, to the irresponsible statements from people attempting to apportion blame for this terrible event." She added, "Acts of monstrous criminality stand on their own. They begin and end with the criminals who commit them, not collectively with all the citizens of a state, not with those who listen to talk radio, not with maps of swing districts used by both sides of the aisle, not with law-abiding citizens who respectfully exercise their First Amendment rights at campaign rallies, not with those who proudly voted in the last election." http://broadcaster.msnbc.msn.com/t?ctl=295EE:B2CA5A050EF65E32AEBB6666A527EE4E&
Then she goes on to accuse the media of "blood libel:" "[E]specially within hours of a tragedy unfolding, journalists and pundits should not manufacture a blood libel that serves only to incite the very hatred and violence they purport to condemn. That is reprehensible."
More: "There are those who claim political rhetoric is to blame for the despicable act of this deranged, apparently apolitical criminal. And they claim political debate has somehow gotten more heated just recently. But when was it less heated? Back in those 'calm days' when political figures literally settled their differences with dueling pistols? … [W]e must condemn violence if our Republic is to endure. … [W]e will not be stopped from celebrating the greatness of our country and our foundational freedoms by those who mock its greatness by being intolerant of differing opinion and seeking to muzzle dissent with shrill cries of imagined insults." http://broadcaster.msnbc.msn.com/t?ctl=29603:B2CA5A050EF65E32AEBB6666A527EE4E&
PAWLENTY: "Wearing a gray suit and black cowboy boots -- like a regular guy running for president -- former Gov. Tim Pawlenty rode the freight elevator on Tuesday to 'Good Morning America's' second-floor studio," the Minneapolis Star Tribune wrote of Pawlenty's New York media blitz. "'I'm not going to be cute about it. I'm seriously considering running for president,' Pawlenty said as he walked down 44th Street between appointments with Fox News' Sean Hannity, the New York Times, 'The Daily Show' with Jon Stewart, Neil Cavuto, 'Good Morning America,' CNN and 'The View' (where he playfully anointed Whoopi Goldberg as his running mate)." http://broadcaster.msnbc.msn.com/t?ctl=29604:B2CA5A050EF65E32AEBB6666A527EE4E&

"Asked whether he is too nice to run for president (a sentiment Minnesota Democrats might scoff at), Pawlenty said there is nothing wrong with being civil, invoking Ronald Reagan," the Pioneer Press writes. "'People shouldn't confuse being nice or thoughtful or civil with being strong,' Pawlenty said during his interview on The View. http://broadcaster.msnbc.msn.com/t?ctl=29605:B2CA5A050EF65E32AEBB6666A527EE4E&

SANTORUM: Rick Santorum's in New Hampshire. http://broadcaster.msnbc.msn.com/t?ctl=29606:B2CA5A050EF65E32AEBB6666A527EE4E&

IOWA: "Three Republicans openly mulling presidential runs will visit the Hawkeye State later this month -- U.S. Rep Michele Bachmann (R-Minn.), former House Speaker Newt Gingrich and Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty," the Iowa Independent writes. Bachmann will speak at an Iowans for Tax Relief event on Jan. 21, Gingrich at the Iowa Renewable Fuel Association's annual summit on Jan. 25, and Pawlenty while on his book tour, on Jan. 30 and 31. http://broadcaster.msnbc.msn.com/t?ctl=29607:B2CA5A050EF65E32AEBB6666A527EE4E&
MASSACHUSETTS: Vicky Kennedy, Ted Kennedy's widow, says she will not run for the U.S. Senate in 2012 against Scott Brown (R). "There's no elective office for me," Kennedy told the Boston Globe's Scott Lehigh. "There will not be a yes. The Senate is not where I see my future. I can't imagine running for elective office without Teddy at my side, and that really is what it all comes down to. I hope people respect that." She added that her husband suggested she run, however. "We had more than one discussion about it," she said, before amending her comment slightly. "Discussion is probably too long of a word. He raised it with me a few times, before he got sick and after he got sick, and every time I said, 'You're Senator Kennedy, and that's it.'" http://broadcaster.msnbc.msn.com/t?ctl=29608:B2CA5A050EF65E32AEBB6666A527EE4E&