First Thoughts: Stating the obvious

First Read from NBC News
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First Thoughts: Stating the obvious

From Chuck Todd, Mark Murray, Domenico Montanaro, and Ali Weinberg

FIRST THOUGHTS.
*** Stating the obvious: Over the past week, the political world has focused on the tragic shootings in Arizona and the GOP effort to repeal the health-care law, and deservedly so. But today, a story with longer-term consequences takes center stage: U.S. relations with China. In the Oval Office at 10:00 am ET and 11:00 am, President Obama holds bilateral meetings with Chinese President Hu for the Chinese leader's official state visit. At 12:20 pm, Obama and Hu meet with prominent U.S. and Chinese business leaders. Less than an hour later, at 1:05 pm, Obama and Hu hold a joint news conference. And in the evening, the state dinner honoring Hu gets underway.

*** Little leverage: NBC's Andrea Mitchell notes that the U.S. has very little leverage in today's talks with Hu. In recent months, the United States has been borrowing $4 billion a day to finance the budget deficit -- HALF of which is now provided every day by China. At the same time, China has to worry about its own inflation problems, U.S. officials tell Mitchell. And as the holder of all that debt, the last thing China wants is for the U.S. economy to fall back into recession, or worse. A major concern here is that Hu has diminished authority -- unlike past Chinese leaders -- and that the real power lies with the military. Our take on today's state visit: It has become another foreign-policy event that Obama has tried to turn into an economic story (just consider today's CEO meet-and-greet at 12:20 pm). In fact, the economic part is more important than the strategic part. Many Americans may be watching today's events asking: is China an ally or an adversary or both? Our answer: exactly. It's a complicated relationship where there's still a lot of cultural distrust that needs to be overcome.

*** Stepping on the repeal story: It's also worth pointing out how today's state visit has stepped on the health-repeal story. Last week, and especially before Arizona, the GOP effort to repeal Obama's signature health-care law would have been the dominating political story. Now? It's not being watched as closely -- due to Arizona, the China story, and also the fact that repeal is unlikely going anywhere in the Senate. The Washington Post also makes this point: The House's current debate over health care is much more civil than it was a year ago. "This time around, there were no frightening warnings about 'death panels' for the elderly or a 'holocaust' of uninsured Americans." The final vote on the repeal effort is expected around 5:00 pm to 5:30 pm ET, NBC's Luke Russert says, and the measure is certain to pass given the GOP's majority. http://broadcaster.msnbc.msn.com/t?ctl=2A9B6:B2CA5A050EF65E3299872E24A0758FC5&

*** NBC/WSJ poll day! How do Americans view China (vs. the U.S.)? What are their thoughts on the health law and the GOP effort to repeal it? And how do they see President Obama after the Arizona shootings and Congress' lame-duck achievements? Well, look for the answers in our latest NBC/WSJ poll, which comes out at 6:30 pm ET.

*** Why Manitowoc? Yesterday, the White House announced that Obama would travel to Manitowoc, WI the day after his State of the Union address. Why Manitowoc? Consider that Obama captured 53% of the vote in this county in the 2008 general election. But last year, victorious Republicans Scott Walker (in the governor's race) and Ron Johnson (in the Senate contest) won, respectively, 60% and 58% in Manitowoc. This isn't that friendly of a county for the president; it's arguably GOP leaning since Obama's percentage in the county in 2008 underperformed his percentage in the state (56%) by three points.

*** End of a Senate era: The most striking part about the news yesterday that both Sens. Joe Lieberman (I) and Kent Conrad (D) would be retiring at the end of this Congress wasn't the politics, though we'll dig into that in a minute. Instead, especially for those of us who started covering politics in the '90s, it was yet another reminder that a Senate era is ending. Consider this list of senators who have retired, lost, or died since 2008: Robert Byrd, Ted Kennedy, Ted Stevens, Arlen Specter, John Warner, Chris Dodd, Kit Bond, even Joe Biden. And when you add Lieberman and Conrad to that list, that's a combined 335 years of Senate service. Get this: Before Dodd left office on Jan. 5, Connecticut was the last state that had both of its senators serving at least a few days while Ronald Reagan was president. Every single state now has at least one senator elected 1990 or later.

*** Lieberman's tough re-election path: As for the politics of Lieberman's retirement -- which he'll announce at 12:30 pm ET in Stamford, CT -- his path to victory would have been extremely difficult. He could have run for re-election as a Democrat, but would have faced a primary challenge from the left, and we saw how that played out in 2006 (with Ned Lamont defeating him). He could have, as he did after his primary loss, run as an independent. But remember that Lieberman was able to pull off that victory because the GOP nominee (Alan Schlesinger) got just 10% of the vote. "He believes that if he were to run for re-election it'd be a tough fight," aide Marshall Wittmann told the New York Times. "He's confident he could've won that fight." Yet this is also perhaps a fitting time for Lieberman to announce the end of his Senate career. After disappointing his party -- on Iraq, for endorsing John McCain, for criticizing Obama at the GOP convention -- the Connecticut senator stewarded the passage of a top Democratic priority: repealing "Don't Ask, Don't Tell." http://broadcaster.msnbc.msn.com/t?ctl=2A9B7:B2CA5A050EF65E3299872E24A0758FC5&

*** Here's a conversation starter: The last three unsuccessful VP nominees have been Sarah Palin. John Edwards, and Joe Lieberman. Discuss. (Hat tip: Walter Shapiro.)

*** A tale of two retirements: Speaking of retirements… Last week, Texas Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison (R) announced she was retiring. The actual impact on 2012: Unless something shocking happens, a Republican (possibly Lt. Gov. David Dewhurst) will hold on to the seat, especially in a presidential year. But when North Dakota Sen. Kent Conrad (D) said yesterday that he wasn't running for re-election in 2012, that has a MUCH bigger impact. The reason: It's unclear if Democrats will be able win this open seat, especially in a state where Obama won just 45% of the vote in '08. Nathan Gonzales of the Rothenberg Political Reports says that the GOP starts out with the early advantage. "Republicans have to be considered the favorites to take over the seat," he said. The good news for Democrats -- the GOP no longer has a John Hoeven waiting in the wings. While Lieberman, Conrad, and KBH are retiring, one longtime senator isn't: Dick Lugar (R), who might have to fend off a Tea Party primary challenge. http://broadcaster.msnbc.msn.com/t?ctl=2A9B8:B2CA5A050EF65E3299872E24A0758FC5&

*** Harry Reid's new challenge: Here's one final point about Lieberman's retirement: Since he's not running for re-election, this means he's a total free agent on legislative matters. A new challenge for Harry Reid?

*** Boehner's absence: As we mentioned above, Obama tonight is holding a state dinner with President Hu of China tonight. But guess who's not coming to the Hu dinner: newly installed House Speaker John Boehner. The move has raised eyebrows for some, especially after Boehner turned down a ride on Air Force One to go to Tucson, and after Republican congressional leaders wanted a later date for their post-election meeting with Obama. In fairness, Boehner will meet with Hu to have a substantive meeting this week on Capitol Hill, according to Boehner aide Michael Steel. On turning down the ride on Air Force One, Boehner was tending to duties as speaker -- a bipartisan prayer service, for example -- that kept him from jumping on that flight. And it's also true that Boehner rarely, if ever, attends state dinners. But the question becomes whether the speaker, who's second in line in presidential succession, has a greater responsibility to appear at these kind of events. NBC's Mitchell notes that Newt Gingrich, then the Republican speaker during the second Clinton term, was very present at the state dinner for Ziang Zemin -- the last state visit for a Chinese leader.

*** Trumka on 2012: AFL-CIO President Richard Trumka is addressing the National Press Club this morning. Here's an excerpt of Trumka's remarks: "Last year's election was fundamentally about jobs, and I believe the 2012 election will be fundamentally about jobs. America wants to work. People who live in Wonderland may not have noticed, but there is a lot of work to be done here. While one in five construction workers is looking for work, we have a $2.2 trillion old-school infrastructure deficit. We need to invest trillions more to build the 21st century infrastructure necessary for our nation's and our planet's future—high-speed mass transit, smart utilities and universal high-speed broadband."
Countdown Chicago's mayoral election: 34 days
Countdown to Election Day 2011: 293 days
Countdown to the Iowa caucuses: 383 days
* Note: When the IA caucuses take place depends on whether other states move up
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OBAMA AGENDA: Do-over for Hu
"After feeling snubbed, slighted even, when he visited five years ago, President Hu Jintao of China is getting a do-over -- plus the White House state dinner he was denied back then," the AP reports. "Tonight's opulent, black-tie affair with President Obama — the grandest of White House soirees — will mark the first such event in China's honor in 13 years and could help smooth tensions between the world's two largest economies… Tonight's affair will return the hospitality that Obama was shown at a state dinner in Beijing on his November 2009 visit."
More: "House Speaker John Boehner, Republican of Ohio, has declined an invitation to attend, according to his spokesman and White House press secretary Robert Gibbs… The White House seemed miffed by Boehner's decision. 'We have invited leaders from both parties and we hoped that because of the importance of the [United States-China] relationship that they would attend,' Gibbs said yesterday." http://broadcaster.msnbc.msn.com/t?ctl=2A9BC:B2CA5A050EF65E3299872E24A0758FC5&
After two polls yesterday showed President Obama's approval above 50%, the New York Daily News' lead is: "Bam is back." The latest NBC/WSJ poll will be released today. http://broadcaster.msnbc.msn.com/t?ctl=2A9BD:B2CA5A050EF65E3299872E24A0758FC5&
Bill Clinton on Rahm Emanuel yesterday campaigning for him in Chicago: "If you want a big mayor . . . if you want to reinvent yourself one more time and come out better than ever, if you want the Windy City to have a gale force of leadership, Rahm Emanuel is your mayor. … Rahm's not even 6 feet tall. He probably weighs about 150 pounds dripping wet. But in all the ways it matters, he is a very big person." http://broadcaster.msnbc.msn.com/t?ctl=2A9BE:B2CA5A050EF65E3299872E24A0758FC5&
President Obama and Vice President Biden will speak Friday at the House Democrats' annual retreat. http://broadcaster.msnbc.msn.com/t?ctl=2A9BF:B2CA5A050EF65E3299872E24A0758FC5&

CONGRESS: Repeal day
Previewing today's health-care repeal vote, the Boston Globe reports, "A health care repeal vote expected today will send a highly symbolic political message -- the icing on the midterm elections that gave Republicans control of the House-- but the GOP's effort to undermine the rollout of the contentious measure and put its own imprint on health care will probably hinge on smaller attempts to change the law." http://broadcaster.msnbc.msn.com/t?ctl=2A9C0:B2CA5A050EF65E3299872E24A0758FC5&
Roll Call adds, "GOP Members are now focusing on trying to dismantle President Barack Obama's signature legislative accomplishment through a series of targeted changes, rather than one symbolic shot. The repeal bill will pass the House later today, but Republicans have long acknowledged it won't go any further." Virginia Republican Eric Cantor "said several House committees will begin work in the coming weeks on a series of smaller health care measures… Republicans will try to undermine the law, first, by arguing that 'Obamacare is not the right path for the country,' and then by trying to explain to the public that 'this is what a replacement bill would look like,'" a GOP aide told Roll Call. "The shift in tactics by the GOP has also given way for Democrats to come together on a strategy of their own. Democrats struggled for every vote when they passed the law last year, but conservatives and liberals have largely aligned during the repeal fight." http://broadcaster.msnbc.msn.com/t?ctl=2A9C1:B2CA5A050EF65E3299872E24A0758FC5&
The Washington Post says the rhetoric in the debate isn't what it was a year ago. "This time around, there were no frightening warnings about 'death panels' for the elderly or a 'holocaust' of uninsured Americans." More: "Returning to official business Tuesday for the time since the tragedy in Tucson, the House took up a contentious issue certain to test lawmakers' powers of restraint: health-care reform. Republicans promised during the 2010 campaign to dismantle President Obama's signature domestic policy initiative, but now, in the transformed political environment of the past 10 days, the debate has come to represent a civility test for elected officials." http://broadcaster.msnbc.msn.com/t?ctl=2A9B6:B2CA5A050EF65E3299872E24A0758FC5&
"Since the November election, U.S. Rep. David Wu, D-Ore., has lost at least six staffers plus the leadership of a veteran campaign team that guided him to a seventh term amid complaints about his public behavior," the Oregonian reports, adding, "[T]he staff departures come amid questions about Wu's behavior during the campaign. On Oct. 27, he gave a speech so negative and loud that a Washington County Democratic Party member complained formally to his office. The outburst was followed two days later by an episode at Portland International Airport, where Wu used his influence as a member of Congress to enter a restricted area and campaign for votes from off-loading passengers. One passenger filed a complaint, and a Transportation Security Administration employee was later required to be retrained for his lapse in letting Wu past security."
More: "Wu, who has represented Oregon's 1st Congressional District since 1999, has been less known for his legislative achievements than his strident opposition to China and bursts of puzzling public behavior. In one instance, he warned of faux Klingons in the White House during a floor speech in 2007. In 2003, as the House was convulsing to pass the Medicare prescription bill, Wu fell into a state that one colleague described as 'almost catatonic,' according to The Washington Post, as Democratic leaders frantically tried to get him to vote for the bill." http://broadcaster.msnbc.msn.com/t?ctl=2A9C2:B2CA5A050EF65E3299872E24A0758FC5&

2012: Lieberman to retire
The Hartford Courant's top story: "U.S. Sen. Joe Lieberman has decided not to seek a fifth term in 2012, after seeing his popularity drop in polls in recent years, political insiders and a Lieberman aide said Tuesday -- and those sources say that the Democrat-turned-independent will make it official at a press conference Wednesday in Stamford." And: "That advisory [that Lieberman would make an announcement yesterday] came on the same day that Democrat Susan Bysiewicz -- the former secretary of the state whose run for attorney general last year was marred by controversy and then cut short by a court ruling -- announced that she would seek the party's nomination for Lieberman's seat." Rep. Chris Murphy said he would run as well. Also in the mix on the GOP side, Linda McMahon and former ambassador Tom Foley, who narrowly lost the governor's race. http://broadcaster.msnbc.msn.com/t?ctl=2A9C3:B2CA5A050EF65E3299872E24A0758FC5&
The Courant has a timeline of Lieberman's career. http://broadcaster.msnbc.msn.com/t?ctl=2A9C4:B2CA5A050EF65E3299872E24A0758FC5&
The New York Times: "Senator Joseph I. Lieberman of Connecticut, the Democratic vice-presidential candidate in 2000 who later became deeply alienated from his party, will announce on Wednesday that he will not seek a fifth term, according to people he told of the decision." http://broadcaster.msnbc.msn.com/t?ctl=2A9B7:B2CA5A050EF65E3299872E24A0758FC5&
The Washington Post adds, "Once a stalwart member of the Democratic caucus and a leader in the party's centrist wing, Lieberman (Conn.) has spent most of the past four years in partial exile - voting with Democrats on organizational matters and some domestic issues while siding with Republicans on key issues of national security. His estrangement from his party reached its apex when he backed Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.) over Democrat Barack Obama in the 2008 presidential campaign, siding with a close friend and political soulmate over the nominee of a party that had been his home since he entered politics four decades earlier." http://broadcaster.msnbc.msn.com/t?ctl=2A9C5:B2CA5A050EF65E3299872E24A0758FC5&

MORE 2012: Palin's loss, Huck's gain?
Stu Rothenberg writing in Roll Call: "Shortly after the 2010 census numbers were released, new Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee Chairman Steve Israel commented that the report "pours cold water on Republicans' hype that redistricting is a disaster for Democrats… My own state-by-state assessment suggests redistricting alone won't net many more seats for the GOP than the party now has -- a conclusion that seems to support Israel… But even though Republicans aren't likely to add 15 to 20 new seats to their existing majority, redistricting across the country could well make it considerably more difficult for Democrats to reverse the results of the 2010 elections in 2012. In that sense, at least, redistricting could be a serious setback for Democrats." http://broadcaster.msnbc.msn.com/t?ctl=2A9C6:B2CA5A050EF65E3299872E24A0758FC5&
Politico: "House Speaker John Boehner (R-Ohio) and Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) have already decided to stay out of a wide-open Republican contest more than one year out from the Iowa caucuses, according to sources close to both men, denying any primary candidate a high-profile congressional endorsement." http://broadcaster.msnbc.msn.com/t?ctl=2A9C7:B2CA5A050EF65E3299872E24A0758FC5&
HUCKABEE: David Frum: "After Sarah Palin's interview with Sean Hannity [on Monday], I think we can now call Mike Huckabee the presumptive winner of the evangelical primary." http://broadcaster.msnbc.msn.com/t?ctl=2A9C8:B2CA5A050EF65E3299872E24A0758FC5&
PALIN: Former New York Mayor Ed Koch pens an op-ed defending Sarah Palin against accusations that her rhetoric has any relation to the shooting in Arizona or that it contains dangerous and inappropriate language. "All of us have an obligation, particularly those in politics and public office, to denounce, when we can, the perpetrators of horrendous libels and stand up for those falsely charged. We should denounce unfair, false and wicked charges not only when they are made against ourselves, our friends or our political party but against those with whom we disagree," he writes in Real Clear Politics. http://broadcaster.msnbc.msn.com/t?ctl=2A9C9:B2CA5A050EF65E3299872E24A0758FC5&
PAWLENTY: "Sitting beneath a framed biblical quote, and with four uniformed security officials standing watch, former Gov. Tim Pawlenty held his first book signing in Minnesota as more than a hundred people lined up Tuesday for autographs and pictures," the Minneapolis Star Tribune writes. "Alex Conant, an adviser to Pawlenty, said he was unsure why the store provided the former governor with security." http://broadcaster.msnbc.msn.com/t?ctl=2A9CA:B2CA5A050EF65E3299872E24A0758FC5&
PENCE: This week, "Pence will receive a letter of support for a presidential bid from, among others, Dick Armey, a former Republican House majority leader; Brent Bozell, president of the Media Research Center; and Morton Blackwell, president of the Leadership Institute," the Wall Street Journal writes. http://broadcaster.msnbc.msn.com/t?ctl=2A9CB:B2CA5A050EF65E3299872E24A0758FC5&
IOWA: The San Francisco Examiner's Michael Barone picks up on Washington Post conservative writer Jennifer Rubin's piece yesterday. She predicted that the 2012 will see a seven-candidate traffic jam in Iowa, among those potential candidates seen as more socially conservative. "The median age of Republican caucusgoers in 2008 seems to have been well above 60; there's certainly room for many more participants if they're motivated to show up. Nonetheless, it's Rubin's assumption, and mine, that the Iowa caucuses are likely to be dominated by religious conservatives, and therefore candidates with appeal to that group who bypass Iowa will be making a confession of weakness likely to be fatal to their candidacies." http://broadcaster.msnbc.msn.com/t?ctl=2A9CC:B2CA5A050EF65E3299872E24A0758FC5&