Next Read: Looking back at today

First Read from NBC News
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Next Read: Looking back at today

From Chuck Todd, Mark Murray, Domenico Montanaro, and Ali Weinberg

FIRST THOUGHTS.
*** Steele's last day? Unless the shocking happens -- on par with Hillary beating Obama in New Hampshire, or Jesse Ventura winning the race for Minnesota governor -- the Republican National Committee will elect someone other than Michael Steele to be the party's next chairman at the RNC's winter meeting today. We have two questions. One, just who will that person be? And two, will that person be able to turn around the RNC's finances (its debt is $20 million) and make the committee relevant again as we head into 2012? There are five candidates: 1) Steele, who surprised almost everyone in deciding to run for re-election after a rocky first term; 2) Wisconsin state party chairman Reince Priebus, who's viewed as the front-runner; 3) Michigan committeeman Saul Anuzis, who ran for chair two years ago; 4) former Missouri party chair Ann Wagner; and 5) former Bush administration official Maria Cino.

*** Meet the challengers: National Journal's Reid Wilson has noted that the four Republicans challenging Steele have their different backers. "Priebus … is seen as the candidate backed by the Republican Governors Association and, by extension, Mississippi Gov. Haley Barbour… Cino is getting help behind the scenes from House Speaker John Boehner… She's also receiving aid from former Vice President Dick Cheney and former RNC Chairman Ed Gillespie… [Wagner] has scored endorsements from such conservative luminaries as John Bolton and John Ashcroft, and she is seen as the candidate closest to former President Bush's team… Anuzis has tried to set himself up as the outsider candidate… He has close ties to former Speaker Newt Gingrich, although Gingrich is neutral in the race."

*** What to watch: According to Hotline's count, Priebus has public commitments from 43 of the RNC's 168 members, Steele has 17, Wagner 15, Anuzis 14, and Cino 12. The winner is the first to obtain a majority of the RNC members (so 85 votes), and it's likely that it will take several rounds of voting to get there. (The 2009 vote that elected Steele went six rounds.) Today's voting begins around 12:30 pm ET, and here's how the process works: The 168 members write down their votes on a piece of paper, walk up and put their ballots in boxes, and those votes are tallied by an independent accounting firm. If no candidate gets the necessary 85 votes, there will be a 20-minute break before another round of voting. What to watch: "I am looking to see Priebus' first-ballot number, and then the movement after the second ballot," a GOP strategist emails First Read. "If Reince posts 67 or 68, it could be quick. Under 60, and ballot No. 3 becomes 'Let's make a deal.' That's when it gets fun." Bottom line: The more ballots this thing goes, the tougher it will be for Priebus. http://broadcaster.msnbc.msn.com/t?ctl=29D41:B2CA5A050EF65E32CABFC541FFFA4701& and http://broadcaster.msnbc.msn.com/t?ctl=29D42:B2CA5A050EF65E32CABFC541FFFA4701&

*** Obama today: At 11:15 am ET, President Obama meets at the White House with President Zardari of Pakistan. And at 3:00 pm, Obama -- along with Vice President Biden -- attends Ambassador Richard Holbrooke's funeral in DC, where the president will deliver remarks. This has to have been an emotionally exhausting week for the Obama White House with the tragedy in Tucson, Holbrooke's funeral, and the death of a top aide's wife.

*** Courting the Hispanic vote: The Republican Party's struggles with Hispanic voters have been well documented. In 2004, Bush won approximately 40% of the Latino vote, but that percentage shrank to 30% in 2006 and 31% in 2008. Last November, it headed back up to 38% -- though still below the 40%-plus threshold that many GOP strategists say is needed to win in a presidential contest and the GOP's performance was subpar in the West. Well, former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush (R) has helped organize the inaugural Hispanic Leadership Network conference in Coral Gables, FL, which seeks to strengthen the GOP's bonds with the Hispanic community. Yet there's this hitch: Only one potential GOP presidential candidate is addressing the group, Tim Pawlenty (who speaks today at 12:10 pm ET). Those who are attending include Jeb Bush (who delivers opening remarks at 9:20 am), former Bush Commerce Secretary Carlos Gutierrez (9:55 am), Colombian President Alvaro Uribe (9:55 am), and Sen. John Cornyn (11:10 am). Politico reports that Bush's brother, George W. Bush, will address the confab via video.

*** T-Paw's good week: Speaking of Pawlenty, while we thought this week's events would overshadow the beginning of the former governor's book tour, it turns out he had a nice week -- getting plenty of coverage at the National Press Club and pick up with his TV interviews. There's a long way to go, and he'll be an underdog in a GOP presidential field if he runs, but T-Paw has to be feeling good right now.

*** Barbour, Gingrich to address House GOP retreat: While just one potential GOP presidential candidate is speaking at the Hispanic Leadership Network in Florida, two will be addressing today the House GOP retreat in Baltimore: former House Speaker Newt Gingrich and Mississippi Gov. Haley Barbour. Politico: "Much of what will go on in Charm City is a reflection of where the Republican Party is in 2011. It's looking to decentralize more power to the states, and has invited Govs. Haley Barbour of Mississippi, Rick Perry of Texas and Bob McDonnell of Virginia to talk about 'Solutions for the States.' House Republican Conference Chairman Jeb Hensarling, whose group will run the retreat, invited [Phil] Gramm, his political mentor and former boss, to speak on a breakfast panel with Gingrich." http://broadcaster.msnbc.msn.com/t?ctl=29D43:B2CA5A050EF65E32CABFC541FFFA4701&

*** Meet the Press lineup: On Sunday, "Meet the Press" will interview New York Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand (D) to get an update on Rep. Gabrielle Giffords' (D) condition. The show also will have Sens. Chuck Schumer (D) and Tom Coburn (R), and a roundtable consisting of Al Sharpton, Tim Shriver, Peggy Noonan, and David Brooks.

*** 2012's first retirement: Finally, Texas Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison (R) became the first retirement of the 2012 cycle, with her announcement yesterday that she won't run for another term in 2012. Two things: 1) While many Republicans want her seat, Lt. Gov. David Dewhurst is the 800-pound gorilla. "If Dewhurst gets in, I think he clears the field," the Cook Political Report's Jennifer Duffy tells First Read. 2) Despite their rhetoric, Democrats don't have a good shot at picking up this seat. Texas has gotten harder for Democrats in the last 10 years, not easier -- which is counter to the C.W. Dems like to sell about the state.
Countdown Chicago's mayoral election: 39 days
Countdown to Election Day 2011: 298 days
Countdown to the Iowa caucuses: 388 days
* Note: When the IA caucuses take place depends on whether other states move up
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OBAMA AGENDA: Will the civility last?
Paul Krugman's New York Times column: "[T]he truth is that we are a deeply divided nation and are likely to remain one for a long time. By all means, let's listen to each other more carefully; but what we'll discover, I fear, is how far apart we are. For the great divide in our politics isn't really about pragmatic issues, about which policies work best; it's about differences in those very moral imaginations Mr. Obama urges us to expand, about divergent beliefs over what constitutes justice." http://broadcaster.msnbc.msn.com/t?ctl=29D47:B2CA5A050EF65E32CABFC541FFFA4701&
David Brooks': "President Obama gave a wonderful speech in Tucson on Wednesday night. He didn't try to explain the rampage that occurred there. Instead, he used the occasion as a national Sabbath — as a chance to step out of the torrent of events and reflect... Of course, even a great speech won't usher in a period of civility. Speeches about civility will be taken to heart most by those people whose good character renders them unnecessary. Meanwhile, those who are inclined to intellectual thuggery and partisan one-sidedness will temporarily resolve to do better but then slip back to old habits the next time their pride feels threatened." http://broadcaster.msnbc.msn.com/t?ctl=29D48:B2CA5A050EF65E32CABFC541FFFA4701&
National Journal's Brownstein: "[W]hen political arguments are routinely framed as threats to America's fundamental character, the odds rise that the most disturbed among us will be tempted to resist the governing agenda by any means necessary."
"An ultimate fighter wishes he could take back the fighting words he flung at the President. In the aftermath of the Tucson, Ariz., shootings that left six dead and 14 injured, Jacob Volkmann said he regrets saying he would like to fight President Obama and 'knock some sense into that idiot.' 'I would never make that comment if that shooting happened first,' the 30-year-old UFC lightweight told the Huffington Post." http://broadcaster.msnbc.msn.com/t?ctl=29D49:B2CA5A050EF65E32CABFC541FFFA4701&
"President Bill Clinton will appear at a campaign rally with Rahm Emanuel in Chicago next week," Roll Call reports, adding, " The event will be held at the Chicago Cultural Center at 11 a.m. Tuesday." http://broadcaster.msnbc.msn.com/t?ctl=29D4A:B2CA5A050EF65E32CABFC541FFFA4701&

CONGRESS: 'Thoughtful consideration'
"The House will begin debating the health care repeal bill next week, following a week when legislative action was halted after the Tucson shooting tragedy," the Boston Globe writes. " House majority leader Eric Cantor's office said yesterday that debate on the bill, which passed a procedural hurdle last Friday, is expected to begin when the House convenes on Tuesday. A vote is expected on Wednesday." http://broadcaster.msnbc.msn.com/t?ctl=29D4B:B2CA5A050EF65E32CABFC541FFFA4701&
The Washington Post adds, "[N]o one quite knows what normal will look like, following a wrenching week in which members confronted concerns about their own safety and whether their heated rhetoric played any role in last Saturday's shooting of Rep. Gabrielle Giffords (D-Ariz.) and 18 others." http://broadcaster.msnbc.msn.com/t?ctl=29D4C:B2CA5A050EF65E32CABFC541FFFA4701&
The New York Times: "In a statement, Brad Dayspring, a spokesman for the office of the majority leader, Eric Cantor of Virginia, said, 'It is important for Congress to get back to work, and to that end we will resume thoughtful consideration of the health care bill next week.'" http://broadcaster.msnbc.msn.com/t?ctl=29D4D:B2CA5A050EF65E32CABFC541FFFA4701&
National Journal's Charlie Cook: "Much of the speculation about the implications of the tragic Tucson shooting has centered on whether it will lead to any meaningful change in the incendiary rhetoric that has been on the rise in American political campaigns and on Internet sites, cable television, and talk radio. A more productive line of thought is to look at whether the tragedy will change the strategy and tactics of the new Republican majority in the House and, more broadly, the 100 GOP freshmen in the House and Senate."
He adds, "The Tucson rampage is unlikely to change Republicans' political philosophies or positions. It may serve, however, as a strong signal that they should approach things more cautiously and think before saying anything that a typical swing voter might find extreme. Members from safe districts are pretty insulated from blowback if they use extreme language, but in the world of the Internet and 24/7 cable TV, a particularly strident statement can hurt their colleagues who may not have the luxury of representing a ruby-red district."

House Minority Whip Steny Hoyer likes the idea of commingled bipartisan seating at the State of the Union. The idea was pitched by centrist group Third Way and also endorsed by Sen. Mark Udall (D-CO). Also endorsing the idea is Sen. Chuck Schumer (D-NY) and John McCain (R-AZ). http://broadcaster.msnbc.msn.com/t?ctl=29D4E:B2CA5A050EF65E32CABFC541FFFA4701& http://broadcaster.msnbc.msn.com/t?ctl=29D4F:B2CA5A050EF65E32CABFC541FFFA4701& and http://broadcaster.msnbc.msn.com/t?ctl=29D50:B2CA5A050EF65E32CABFC541FFFA4701&

GOP WATCH: Decision Day
Politico's headline: "Zero hour for Michael Steele at RNC."
From the story: "While each of the four party insiders seeking to oust Chairman Michael Steele– who took office less than two years ago with a pledge to give the RNC 'something completely different' – brings a unique set of skills, none have the national stature to compete with Steele's TV-ready style. Still, the former Maryland lieutenant governor enters Friday's voting in a dire position, with a majority of RNC members less inclined to praise Steele than to replace him." And there's this reminder: "Early vote tallies, of course, can be deceptive in a race that will be decided over the course of several secret ballots, with plenty of lobbying and deal-making in between." http://broadcaster.msnbc.msn.com/t?ctl=29D51:B2CA5A050EF65E32CABFC541FFFA4701&
The Hill: "Republicans will decide Friday whether Michael Steele deserves some credit for the party's historic victory in last year's midterm elections or whether he should be replaced ahead of the presidential campaign cycle for being a gaffe-prone liability." http://broadcaster.msnbc.msn.com/t?ctl=29D52:B2CA5A050EF65E32CABFC541FFFA4701&
"A Republican group that includes former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush on Thursday kicks off its efforts to improve the party's outreach to Hispanic voters, many of whom have criticized Republicans for using harsh rhetoric to attack illegal immigration," the AP writes. "The new Hispanic Action Network convenes for a two-day policy conference starting Thursday evening that will feature several high-ranking Republicans and focus on issues such as trade, immigration, media outreach and education." http://broadcaster.msnbc.msn.com/t?ctl=29D53:B2CA5A050EF65E32CABFC541FFFA4701&

2012: Raising Cain
CAIN: "Pizza magnate and potential presidential aspirant Herman Cain says President Barack Obama has done at least one thing well," the Wall Street Journal writes. ""He has awakened the sleeping giant called 'we the people,' Mr. Cain said, talking from his hotel room in Phoenix… Mr. Cain got a jump on other potential GOP 2012 candidates Wednesday when he formed a presidential exploratory committee, which allows him to raise money for a possible White House run." http://broadcaster.msnbc.msn.com/t?ctl=29D54:B2CA5A050EF65E32CABFC541FFFA4701&
DANIELS: "In another sign that Mitch Daniels is looking for a broader stage and eyeing a presidential run, the Indiana governor has accepted an invitation to be the Republican speaker at this year's Gridiron Club dinner," National Journal writes. "The annual journalism dinner has been used in the past by potential presidential candidates to break out of the pack and shine before an audience that includes the president, members of Congress, and leading publishers and editors." http://broadcaster.msnbc.msn.com/t?ctl=29D55:B2CA5A050EF65E32CABFC541FFFA4701&
GINGRICH: Per the Myrtle Beach Sun News, the former House speaker spoke at a dinner hosted by the lobbying group Grand Strand Business Association in Myrtle Beach. "'The midterm win wasn't enough and Republicans need to aim for winning 40 more House seats and 12 or 13 more Senate seats in the next election,' Gingrich said to a crowd." http://broadcaster.msnbc.msn.com/t?ctl=29D56:B2CA5A050EF65E32CABFC541FFFA4701&
The Honolulu Star-Advertiser reports that Newt Gingrich will speak at Hawaii's state GOP Lincoln Day dinner and fundraiser on February 18th. http://broadcaster.msnbc.msn.com/t?ctl=29D57:B2CA5A050EF65E32CABFC541FFFA4701&
PALIN: She'll be on Hannity on FOX Monday, her first TV interview since the Arizona shooting. http://broadcaster.msnbc.msn.com/t?ctl=29D58:B2CA5A050EF65E32CABFC541FFFA4701&
PAWLENTY: MinnPost.com's takeaway from the former governor's speech yesterday at the National Press Club: "He stood on the stage a business evangelist, preaching the gospel of small government to a room full of Republican politicos who ate it up and prominent national journalists who took it all down. Here at the National Press Club, where Ronald Reagan, Jimmy Carter and John F. Kennedy each kicked off a presidential campaign, Tim Pawlenty didn't. But he sounded for all the world like someone who will in just a few months' time." http://broadcaster.msnbc.msn.com/t?ctl=29D59:B2CA5A050EF65E32CABFC541FFFA4701&
ROMNEY: He spoke about democracy with young Afghans, saying it also sometimes opens the door for bad people, but to look for the "good leaders." The Boston Globe: "Far from the sometimes-boiling partisan atmosphere back home, Romney sought to present a more nuanced side of himself during what his staff described as an important listening and learning tour — one that is bound to be seen as another step in his preparation for a likely second run for the presidency. Yesterday, Romney had breakfast with Israeli prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu, and he is scheduled to meet today with Palestinian Authority prime minister Salam Fayad. He is seeking advice on foreign policy matters, asking questions of foreign and US military leaders." http://broadcaster.msnbc.msn.com/t?ctl=29D5A:B2CA5A050EF65E32CABFC541FFFA4701&
ROMNEY: "Former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney has secured both a pollster and a political director for his near-certain presidential bid this coming cycle," Real Clear Politics reports. "Rich Beeson, a Republican operative who has worked as a political director at the Republican National Committee and was most recently a partner at the voter contact firm FLS Connect, will be Romney's political director… And for polling, Romney is bringing on Neil Newhouse, a partner at the polling firm Public Opinion Strategies." http://broadcaster.msnbc.msn.com/t?ctl=29D5B:B2CA5A050EF65E32CABFC541FFFA4701&
TEXAS: Lt. Gov. David Dewhurst (R) released this statement after Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison announced she would not seek another term: "I fully intend to explore running for the United States Senate," he said. "And should I run, I will run with the intention of winning." Writes the Dallas Morning News: It was one of many rapid-fire signals Thursday as candidates and potential candidates – many who've been biding their time for Hutchison to step down – began the scramble for a rare Senate opening." http://broadcaster.msnbc.msn.com/t?ctl=29D5C:B2CA5A050EF65E32CABFC541FFFA4701&