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First Read: Are the political winds changing?
From Chuck Todd, Mark Murray, Domenico Montanaro, and Ali Weinberg
FIRST THOUGHTS.
*** Are the political winds changing? Exactly two years ago today, Barack Obama was sworn in as the country's 44th president -- a sign that the political winds were firmly at the Democratic Party's back. Then, a year ago today, we had discovered the winds had shifted with the news that Scott Brown (R) had just captured Ted Kennedy's old Senate seat, ending the Dems' filibuster-proof majority. It began a slow descent for the Democrats and culminated with the November "shellacking." But are the political winds once again changing? After a stretch that included the bipartisan legislative achievements in the lame duck, mostly positive economic news, and Obama's speech in Arizona come these numbers in the new NBC/WSJ poll: Obama's approval is at 53% (where he hasn't been since before those summer town halls in '09, that's 18 months ago); confidence that the economy will improve in the next 12 months jumped eight points from last month; and the Dem Party's fav/unfav went from a net negative (37%-41%) to a net positive (39%-35%). "The last six weeks have been the best six weeks the president has had in his first two years in office," said NBC/WSJ co-pollster Peter Hart (D).
*** Maybe this is why we haven't heard "Obama is a socialist" in a while: We'll take it one step further: These might have been Obama's best six weeks since Fall 2008. Indeed, the bump in Obama's approval was across the board -- independents moved from 35% approval to 46%; Democrats went from 76% to 86%, and Republicans went from 11% to 15%. Perhaps the most surprising result in the poll? Try 40% labeling the president as a political moderate, compared with 45% who see him as a liberal and 11% who view him as a conservative. That moderate number is the highest for Obama in the NBC/WSJ poll, even higher than it was before his inauguration.
*** A transition or a transitory moment? But Hart and co-pollster Bill McInturff (R) say these poll numbers present this question for Obama, especially with the 2012 election on the horizon: Is this a transition, or is it a transitory moment? After all, Bill Clinton saw a bump after the 1995 Oklahoma City bombing, but it lasted just a couple of months. (Of course, Clinton went on to easily win re-election.) And there are still plenty of warning signs for Obama and the Democrats. A majority (56%) thinks the county is on the wrong track; 50% disapprove of Obama's economic handling; and a combined 82% say the Afghanistan war has either gotten worse or stayed the same, and 71% believe the U.S. will ultimately have to withdraw and leave the country without a stable democratic government. Here's one other way to look at Obama's numbers: This might be a ceiling for him, at least in this current economic climate. If you're not going to approve of his job after Arizona, then you aren't going to approve of it later…
*** The GOP's short honeymoon: But the bigger warning signs in the poll appear directed at the party that's been in control of the House for just two weeks. Only 25% say the Republicans in Congress will bring the right kind of change (versus 42% who said that about the Dems in Jan. 2007, and 37% who said that about the GOP in Jan. 1995). In addition, a majority (55%) believe congressional Republicans will be too inflexible in dealing with Obama, while an equal number (55%) say Obama will strike the right balance. And then there's this: The GOP's fav/unfav has gone from a net positive in December (38%-37%) to a net negative now (34%-40%). "I think this has been a pretty short Republican honeymoon," McInturff says. Hart adds, "I think the president has the benefit of the doubt, and the Republicans -- based on this data -- have the burden of proof."
*** Handicapping 2012: Looking ahead to the 2012 presidential race, the NBC/WSJ poll shows Obama leading Mike Huckabee by 10 points (51%-41%) and Newt Gingrich by 19 points (54%-35%). The December poll had him leading Mitt Romney by seven (47%-40%) and Sarah Palin by 22 (55%-33%). But keep in mind: At this stage of the 1996 cycle, McInturff says, Bob Dole was leading Bill Clinton in the NBC/WSJ poll. That tells us one of two things: Either these polls aren't that reliable this far out, or that Obama enters the 2012 in a much stronger position than Clinton did in '96. For the first time, our poll also handicapped the '12 GOP field. Leading the pack are Romney (the first choice of 19% of Republicans and independents) and Huckabee (18%) -- followed by Palin (14%), Gingrich (10%), Ron Paul (8%), and Tim Pawlenty (at 5%). We also asked "second choice," and if you take Palin out, the person who benefits the most is Huckabee. He would lead a Palin-less GOP primary, not Romney. By the way, here's another 2012 poll: Per Quinnipiac, 48% of Ohio voters say Obama deserves re-election, while 44% say he doesn't. The president's approval in the Buckeye State is 49%-46%.
*** Polling birthright citizenship: We'll leave you with a final set of numbers from our NBC/WSJ poll. In it, 50% believe the U.S. should continue to grant citizenship to all children born in the country, including children of illegal immigrants. Yet 47% think this should be changed so children of illegal immigrants aren't automatically granted citizenship. The divide breaks along party lines: 67% of Democrats want to continue granting automatic citizenship, while 69% of Republicans don't. By the way, Hispanics support birthright citizenship by a nearly 80%-20% margin. Does this make the issue untouchable for Republican presidential candidates who think they might be the nominee?
Countdown Chicago's mayoral election: 33 days
Countdown to Election Day 2011: 292 days
Countdown to the Iowa caucuses: 382 days
* Note: When the IA caucuses take place depends on whether other states move up
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OBAMA AGENDA:
Here's our take on the new NBC/WSJ poll: "What a difference a few weeks can make. Last month, Republicans were celebrating their midterm victories; Democrats were licking their electoral wounds; and President Barack Obama's approval rating was stuck in the mid-40s."
"But after a five-week stretch that included bipartisan legislative achievements in the lame-duck session of Congress, mostly positive economic news and Obama's well-received speech honoring the victims of the tragic shootings in Arizona, the political world has taken an abrupt turn in direction." http://broadcaster.msnbc.msn.com/t?ctl=2ADB3:B2CA5A050EF65E32D371F675BE5E0EC7&
Here's the Wall Street Journal's: "President Barack Obama is riding a surge of public support into next week's State of the Union address, with more Americans approving of his performance and more seeing him as a political moderate... But public concern is coalescing around the stubbornly high unemployment rate, now 9.4%, a potential pitfall for the president. If rising optimism about the economic recovery dwindles, the surge of support could fade, pollsters say." http://broadcaster.msnbc.msn.com/t?ctl=2ADB4:B2CA5A050EF65E32D371F675BE5E0EC7&
"President Obama on Wednesday gently but pointedly prodded China to make progress on human rights, but he sought to focus most of the attention during a closely watched state visit with President Hu Jintao on the expanding economic relationship between the United States and its biggest economic rival," the New York Times writes. "Mr. Obama said that differences on human rights were an 'occasional source of tension between our two governments.' As the two leaders stood side by side at a nationally televised news conference, he called on China to live up to human rights values that he said were enshrined in the Chinese Constitution, adding that Americans 'have some core views as Americans about the universality of certain rights: freedom of speech, freedom of religion, freedom of assembly.'" http://broadcaster.msnbc.msn.com/t?ctl=2ADB5:B2CA5A050EF65E32D371F675BE5E0EC7&
The AP: "A residency challenge to Emanuel's bid to replace the retiring Mayor Richard Daley was heard before a three-judge panel of the Illinois Appellate Court, which did not immediately rule. An attorney for two voters objecting to Emanuel's candidacy argued again that the Democrat doesn't meet the one-year residency requirement because he rented out his Chicago home and moved his family to Washington to work for President Barack Obama for nearly two years."
By the way, a spokesperson for Emanuel opponent Carol Moseley Braun, a former U.S. Senator and ambassador, criticized former President Bill Clinton's campaigning for Emanuel and invoked race: "For him to come on the day following Dr. Martin Luther King's birthday to insert himself in the middle of a mayoral race, when the majority of the population and mayoral candidates are African American and Latino, is a betrayal of the people who were most loyal to him." http://broadcaster.msnbc.msn.com/t?ctl=2ADB6:B2CA5A050EF65E32D371F675BE5E0EC7&
CONGRESS: "Symbolic" passage
"The House voted Wednesday to repeal the Democrats' landmark health care overhaul, marking what the new Republican majority in the chamber hailed as the fulfillment of a campaign promise and the start of an all-out effort to dismantle President Obama's signature domestic policy achievement," the New York Times says. http://broadcaster.msnbc.msn.com/t?ctl=2ADB7:B2CA5A050EF65E32D371F675BE5E0EC7&
The Boston Globe: "The vote was the first significant — although largely symbolic — victory for the newly empowered Republicans, but the eight hours of debate before the tally lacked the populist fireworks that for two years have punctuated the debate over health care. The shift reflected a more somber tone adopted by both parties following the shooting of Democratic Representative Gabrielle Giffords in Tucson this month." The vote was 245-189 with three Democrats joining the 242 Republicans. They were: Reps. Mike McIntyre (NC), Dan Boren (OK), and Mike Ross (AR). http://broadcaster.msnbc.msn.com/t?ctl=2ADB8:B2CA5A050EF65E32D371F675BE5E0EC7&
Politico says that House Republicans passing their repeal was the easy part. "The next steps — hearings, testimony from administration officials, funding cuts — lack the punch of a straight repeal vote, but Republicans said they will keep at it, hoping the end result is the same: stalling implementation of the $900 billion law." http://broadcaster.msnbc.msn.com/t?ctl=2ADB9:B2CA5A050EF65E32D371F675BE5E0EC7&
Meanwhile, "House Republicans will force Democrats to go "on the record" about government spending in a symbolic vote next week timed to coincide with President Obama's State of the Union address," The Hill reports. "The House Rules Committee on Wednesday approved by a party-line vote of 8-4 a resolution calling on House Budget Committee Chairman Paul Ryan (R-Wis.) to limit non-security discretionary spending in the second half of 2011 to 2008 levels 'or less.'" http://broadcaster.msnbc.msn.com/t?ctl=2ADBA:B2CA5A050EF65E32D371F675BE5E0EC7&
The New York Daily News on Gabrielle Giffords: "Just 13 days after a would-be assassin shot her through the head, Giffords has recovered enough to fly to Memorial Hermann Hospital in Houston, home to one of the nation's top facilities for traumatic brain injuries. Giffords' husband, Mark Kelly, is a NASA astronaut who is supposed to be training in Houston for a mission in April." http://broadcaster.msnbc.msn.com/t?ctl=2ADBB:B2CA5A050EF65E32D371F675BE5E0EC7&
Bernie Sanders is publishing an e-Book of his "Fillibernie." It will be out Jan. 28th and will be called, "THE SPEECH: A Historic Filibuster on Corporate Greed and the Decline of Our Middle Class." http://broadcaster.msnbc.msn.com/t?ctl=2ADBC:B2CA5A050EF65E32D371F675BE5E0EC7&
2012: Santorum invokes Obama's race on abortion
The Hill: "A resurgence in President Obama's popularity could force Republican presidential hopefuls to move up their 2012 announcement dates. Already, most of the GOP contenders are lagging behind the 2008 cycle, for which all of the candidates had announced their intention to run by the end of January 2007. Now the question is: How long is too long to wait, particularly as Obama's approval ratings have risen in recent polls?" http://broadcaster.msnbc.msn.com/t?ctl=2ADBD:B2CA5A050EF65E32D371F675BE5E0EC7&
DANIELS: Former Vice President Dick Cheney praised Mitch Daniels as a potential 2012 candidate during an interview with NBC's Jamie Gangel: "I'm intrigued for example by, oh, someone like Mitch Daniels. I like Mitch because he's got a breadth of experience, as OMB Director for example, because he's run a major of a big corporation, he's run a think tank -- Hudson Institute -- he's now been governor of Indiana, and he's done in Indiana what I think we need to do at the national level." http://broadcaster.msnbc.msn.com/t?ctl=2ADBE:B2CA5A050EF65E32D371F675BE5E0EC7&
HUCKABEE: "Mike Huckabee and his top advisers insist that he's thinking seriously about running for president, but he's doing little to put together the sort of organization needed to mount a campaign," Politico writes. The latest evidence: Chip Saltsman, his campaign manager in 2008 and one of his closest confidantes, has accepted a job as Chief of Staff for freshman Rep. Chuck Fleischmann (R-Tenn.)… [But] Saltsman said his taking the job should not be read as an indication about Huckabee's intentions." http://broadcaster.msnbc.msn.com/t?ctl=2ADBF:B2CA5A050EF65E32D371F675BE5E0EC7&
PALIN: Per Real Clear Politics, "Former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin has tasked her aides with quietly gauging her level of support for a potential presidential campaign by making inquiries to a select pool of likely allies and grassroots activists in Iowa." http://broadcaster.msnbc.msn.com/t?ctl=2ADC0:B2CA5A050EF65E32D371F675BE5E0EC7&
Republicans want Palin to be more presidential if she runs for president. http://broadcaster.msnbc.msn.com/t?ctl=2ADC1:B2CA5A050EF65E32D371F675BE5E0EC7&
PAWLENTY: "Republican Tim Pawlenty dished out $34,000 to state-level candidates and conservative groups in Iowa during the final 2010 push," the AP reports. "His late-election contributions to candidates and groups were double the amount made by former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney during the same period." http://broadcaster.msnbc.msn.com/t?ctl=2ADC2:B2CA5A050EF65E32D371F675BE5E0EC7&
PENCE: "Some South Carolina lawmakers are looking forward to the 2012's presidential election -- so much so they've asked U.S. Representative Mike Pence to seek the Republican nomination for president," WLTX writes. Seven state representatives and four state senators have started a Facebook page and a Twitter account "for what they call a grassroots campaign." http://broadcaster.msnbc.msn.com/t?ctl=2ADC3:B2CA5A050EF65E32D371F675BE5E0EC7&
ROMNEY: Time magazine profiles Romney and his emerging 2012 bid. http://broadcaster.msnbc.msn.com/t?ctl=2ADC4:B2CA5A050EF65E32D371F675BE5E0EC7&
Although Romney criticized his opponents in 2008 for not spending more time in Iowa, "as he appears to be preparing to launch a second presidential bid, Romney has largely avoided the state," Real Clear Politics writes. "After a debilitating second-place finish in the 2008 caucuses, Romney has visited Iowa only twice since President Obama was elected, and he does not have any additional trips to the state currently scheduled." http://broadcaster.msnbc.msn.com/t?ctl=2ADC5:B2CA5A050EF65E32D371F675BE5E0EC7&
SANTORUM: In an interview with the Christian News Service -- and it's on camera -- Santorum was asked about President Obama's views on abortion and said he found it "almost remarkable for a black man to say, 'we're going to decide who are people and who are not people.'" http://broadcaster.msnbc.msn.com/t?ctl=2ADC6:B2CA5A050EF65E32D371F675BE5E0EC7& (Here's the video: http://broadcaster.msnbc.msn.com/t?ctl=2ADC7:B2CA5A050EF65E32D371F675BE5E0EC7&
The Manchester Union-Leader reported that Rick Santorum has chosen veteran Republican activist Clara Monier as the chair of his New Hampshire political action committee. http://broadcaster.msnbc.msn.com/t?ctl=2ADC8:B2CA5A050EF65E32D371F675BE5E0EC7&
"It's Santorum's second New Hampshire hire this month," The Hill points out. Santorum earlier announced Mike Biundo as the PAC's director. http://broadcaster.msnbc.msn.com/t?ctl=2ADC9:B2CA5A050EF65E32D371F675BE5E0EC7&
NEW HAMPSHIRE: "On Saturday, January 22, ABC News and WMUR-TV are teaming up for a first ever 'straw poll' sanctioned by the New Hampshire Republican State Committee to see just what kind of buzz these 2012 candidates have among the party faithful," WMUR reports. http://broadcaster.msnbc.msn.com/t?ctl=2ADCA:B2CA5A050EF65E32D371F675BE5E0EC7&
TEXAS: Ron Paul's thinking about a 2012 Senate run. http://broadcaster.msnbc.msn.com/t?ctl=2ADCB:B2CA5A050EF65E32D371F675BE5E0EC7&
GOP WATCH: Et tu, Priebus?
So far, newly installed RNC Chairman Reince Priebus has cleaned House, getting rid of a Steele former assistant, who was making about a $200,000 salary, serving as liaison to the Tampa convention. And then yesterday, the RNC announced Ed Gillespie (a former RNC chairman who was involved with the third-party group American Crossroads which stole lots of the RNC's thunder in 2010) and Nick Ayers (the young RGA former executive director) to lead the transition team.
"When I ran for chairman of the R.N.C., I promised to make changes and begin the outreach process with key Republican donors," Mr. Priebus wrote in his letter to the committee, per the New York Times. "Today, I am honored to announce the team that will help ensure Republicans have a top-notch ground game in the 2012 election cycle. Together, we will build on our success in 2010 and take back the White House and United States Senate." http://broadcaster.msnbc.msn.com/t?ctl=2ADCC:B2CA5A050EF65E32D371F675BE5E0EC7&
But former RNC Chairman Michael Steele took offense to Priebus' running at all. He said in an interview with Frum Forum on his former general counsel and campaign manager for the 2009 RNC chair race succeeding him: "I know exactly how Caesar felt. It is what it is… I trust my friends. Well, I guess the adage is right. In Washington, you should get a dog… We put a lot of resources in Wisconsin over the last two years… that's what you do for [the] team." More: "I fight. I'm a fighter. The only thing I wish is that I could have slapped some folks upside the head more when I had the title and the job. [But] now maybe I get to do that a little bit more… In my own way… All I know is that what goes around does come around. That's the nature of politics."
He defended his controversial comments on President Obama and Afghanistan: "I maintain the point, as evidenced by the screaming cover of Bob Woodward's book, Obama's War, that the President made on a concerted decision to shift the emphasis away from Iraq and towards Afghanistan. I want to win the war against terrorism. Period." And then he said this about his future, "Doin' some TV here and there… [as well] there's a presidential cycle coming up. I plan to play in that a little bit. Maybe a lot." http://broadcaster.msnbc.msn.com/t?ctl=2ADCD:B2CA5A050EF65E32D371F675BE5E0EC7&
Read full story:
http://broadcaster.msnbc.msn.com/t?ctl=2ADCE:B2CA5A050EF65E32D371F675BE5E0EC7&
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More from First Read:
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Congress: 'Symbolic' passage
http://broadcaster.msnbc.msn.com/t?ctl=2ADCF:B2CA5A050EF65E32D371F675BE5E0EC7&
2012: Santorum invokes Obama's race on abortion
http://broadcaster.msnbc.msn.com/t?ctl=2ADD0:B2CA5A050EF65E32D371F675BE5E0EC7&
GOP watch: Et tu, Priebus?
http://broadcaster.msnbc.msn.com/t?ctl=2ADD1:B2CA5A050EF65E32D371F675BE5E0EC7&
Which Democrats voted for repeal?
http://broadcaster.msnbc.msn.com/t?ctl=2ADD2:B2CA5A050EF65E32D371F675BE5E0EC7&
But Hu's counting?
http://broadcaster.msnbc.msn.com/t?ctl=2ADD3:B2CA5A050EF65E32D371F675BE5E0EC7&
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