First Thoughts: Two different approaches

First Read from NBC News
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First Thoughts: Two different approaches

From Chuck Todd, Mark Murray, Domenico Montanaro, and Ali Weinberg

FIRST THOUGHTS.
*** Two different approaches: Two very different approaches to the lame duck -- and likely the next Congress -- were on display in advance of today's bipartisan congressional meeting at the White House at 10:30 am ET. On the one hand, you had President Obama preaching "shared responsibility" with Republicans now set to take over the House in January. "My hope is that tomorrow's meeting will mark a first step towards a new and productive working relationship," the president said yesterday, "because we now have a shared responsibility to deliver for the American people." On the other hand, you had John Boehner and Mitch McConnell demanding extension of the Bush tax cuts and a reduction in federal spending. "If President Obama and Democratic leaders put forward a plan during the lame-duck session to cut spending and stop the tax hikes on all Americans, they can count on a positive response from Republicans," the two write in a Washington Post op-ed today. http://broadcaster.msnbc.msn.com/t?ctl=2261C:B2CA5A050EF65E32C3F570FE5DDA7284&

*** With two different dangers: Both approaches present potential dangers. For the White House, the danger is that the let's-hold-hands-together-and-get-to-work routine won't work when the other side is packing brass knuckles in their pockets. After all, this didn't exactly produce sterling results for Democrats in 2009-2010. Also, as soon as Obama yesterday announced a concession by proposing a federal pay freeze, Republicans were taking credit for the idea. For congressional Republicans, the danger is too harsh of a tone (see their cancellation of the meeting Obama originally scheduled) and interpreting the midterm election results as a broad mandate (when even they acknowledge that the American public has them on a short leash). On "TODAY" this morning, soon-to-be House Majority Leader Eric Cantor struck a conciliatory tone. Americans, he said, "want to see Washington producing results."

*** What to expect? Not much: The White House, however, expects nothing concrete to come out of today's meeting. This is all about the two sides feeling each other out -- and seeing where there is a line in the sand and where there isn't. And the meeting won't just be about the Bush tax cuts. Indeed, the first thing Obama mentioned yesterday when teeing up the meeting was NOT anything to do with taxes or the economy -- but rather ratifying the new START treaty. Here's the full attendance roster: President Obama, Vice President Biden, Treasury Secretary Geithner, OMB Director Lew, Speaker Nancy Pelosi, future Speaker John Boehner, House Majority Leader Steny Hoyer, future House Majority Leader Eric Cantor, Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid, Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, Assistant Majority Leader Dick Durbin, and Minority Whip Jon Kyl.

*** Kyl START-ing up for 2012? Speaking of the START treaty and Kyl, we'll re-ask the question we raised yesterday: Would Kyl be willing to drop his opposition to START if Senate Democrats dropped the Dream Act in the lame duck? Remember: Kyl is up for re-lection in 2012 -- and in a state with a large Latino population. And remember this, too: Republicans didn't fare very well in the West earlier this month, picking up just a handful of congressional seats (none in California!) and going 0-4 in the most competitive Senate races west of the Rockies (California, Colorado, Nevada, and Washington). One reason for this poor performance was the party's poor performance with the Latino vote. By the way, in an interview on ABC today, John McCain sounded more optimistic on ratifying new START than Kyl has been. http://broadcaster.msnbc.msn.com/t?ctl=2261D:B2CA5A050EF65E32C3F570FE5DDA7284&

*** Is Obama a poor negotiator? Returning to yesterday's pay freeze, some voices on the left were disappointed that Obama put it on the table without asking for anything in return from Republicans. "If the president is willing to accept a civilian pay freeze, fine. I wish he wouldn't, but that's where he's prepared to go," Steve Benen of the Washington Monthly wrote. "But in exchange for this concession, Obama appears to be getting literally nothing in return… The president has some extraordinary strengths. Negotiating tactics do not appear to be among them." The White House will respond that it needed to get out in front of an issue that Congress was destined to take up and get some credit. Still, the criticism that Obama goes public too quickly with concessions is something to watch over the next couple of years. Quietly, the left has been irked by the number of times the White House has tossed them under the bus without getting something in return (see: option, public). http://broadcaster.msnbc.msn.com/t?ctl=2261E:B2CA5A050EF65E32C3F570FE5DDA7284&

*** Bowles and Simpson meet the press, again: At 3:30 pm ET today, Deficit Commission co-chairs Erskine Bowles (D) and Alan Simpson (R) hold a press conference to update the media on the state the of negotiations. Tomorrow is the deadline for 14 of the commission's 18 members to agree on a final proposal to send to Congress. Bowles and Simpson will lead a public meeting in DC on Wednesday morning to discuss the commission's final proposal. Yesterday, Obama said that he hopes the commission's final product "will spark a serious and long-overdue conversation in this town" about the ways in which to reduce the deficit and debt.

*** DADT report is released: One other thing to watch today: the release of the military report on repealing "Don't Ask, Don't Tell." As the AP writes today -- and as the Washington Post wrote earlier this month: "Officials familiar with the 10-month study's results have said a clear majority of respondents don't care if gays serve openly, with 70 percent predicting that lifting the ban would have positive, mixed or no results. The Post also reported: "Although a majority of respondents signaled no strong objections, a significant minority is opposed to serving alongside openly gay troops. About 40 percent of the Marine Corps is concerned about lifting the ban, according to one of the people familiar with the report." http://broadcaster.msnbc.msn.com/t?ctl=2261F:B2CA5A050EF65E32C3F570FE5DDA7284& and http://broadcaster.msnbc.msn.com/t?ctl=22620:B2CA5A050EF65E32C3F570FE5DDA7284&

*** Dayton picks up votes in first day of MN recount: As expected, the first day of the recount in Minnesota's gubernatorial contest didn't alter Mark Dayton's (D) nearly 9,000-vote lead over Tom Emmer (R); in fact, Dayton expanded his lead. The Star Tribune: "Dayton picked up 20 votes while Emmer lost four. Dayton now leads Emmer 43.6 percent to 43.2 percent -- a margin of 8,794 votes. Those numbers represent only a snapshot, since more than half of the state's ballots have yet to be recounted. Before the recount began, Dayton led Emmer by 8,770 votes." http://broadcaster.msnbc.msn.com/t?ctl=22621:B2CA5A050EF65E32C3F570FE5DDA7284&

*** Programming note: Sen. Dick Durbin, who's attending today's bipartisan meeting at the White House, will appear tonight on "The Last Word with Lawrence O'Donnell."
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OBAMA AGENDA: Face to face
"When President Obama sits down with the new Republican congressional leaders for their first face-to-face meeting on Tuesday, the stated mission will be to make progress on ratifying an arms agreement with Russia and reaching a deal on soon-to-expire tax cuts," the Washington Post reports. "But with the White House session scheduled to last just one hour, neither side anticipates emerging with a grand compromise. Instead, the goal will be to set a course for the weeks ahead - and to try to determine whether either side is serious about making concessions necessary to reach a deal." http://broadcaster.msnbc.msn.com/t?ctl=22625:B2CA5A050EF65E32C3F570FE5DDA7284&
The Wall Street Journal previews today's meeting this way: "The first debate of the 2012 presidential election cycle will occur Tuesday, and taxes will be the subject. It's quite possible that, in the end, the tax cuts simply will be extended for everyone temporarily, punting the debate into next year and beyond. Meanwhile, there likely will be lots of maneuvers and test votes, all designed to probe the underlying question: What is the real balance of power in Washington in the wake of the midterm elections?" http://broadcaster.msnbc.msn.com/t?ctl=22626:B2CA5A050EF65E32C3F570FE5DDA7284&
Politico: "It won't be the relaxed dinner-and-drinks working session President Barack Obama wanted, but the White House still hopes Tuesday's delayed and abbreviated summit with Republicans will start to bridge the bipartisan divide. The problem for Obama is that GOP leaders have little incentive to cut any deals in the lame-duck congressional session — the better to capitalize on their new House majority in January — and have no appetite for major compromise on the extension of Bush-era tax cuts or their deficit-cutting platform." http://broadcaster.msnbc.msn.com/t?ctl=22627:B2CA5A050EF65E32C3F570FE5DDA7284&
The Boston Globe: "In the first test of Washington's new political alignment, President Obama will meet with Republican leaders today with the nation's tax rates and a nuclear arms treaty in doubt. Neither side expects final deals from the meeting, but the sparring could have major short- and long-term consequences." http://broadcaster.msnbc.msn.com/t?ctl=22628:B2CA5A050EF65E32C3F570FE5DDA7284&
It appears John McCain is more optimistic that the Senate can ratify the new START treaty than Jon Kyl is. Sen. John McCain (R-AZ) said on ABC that he hopes START can get done by the end of this year, per The Hill. "I believe that we could move forward with the START treaty and satisfy Sen. Kyl's concerns and mine about missile defense and others, and I would hope that we can do that," McCain said. When asked if negotiations had advanced to the extent that a vote could be held by the end of the year, McCain said, "I would hope so. But Sen. Kyl's concerns are very legitimate, and I think that attempts are being made to address them … What I would hope that we could do is we could do is agree to the extension of tax cuts at all levels and also reach some agreement on moving forward with the START treaty as well," he said. "I think that is a serious result that could ensue from the meeting today." http://broadcaster.msnbc.msn.com/t?ctl=2261D:B2CA5A050EF65E32C3F570FE5DDA7284&
The AP writes on today's release of the military's report on "Don't Ask, Don't Tell:: "Officials familiar with the 10-month study's results have said a clear majority of respondents don't care if gays serve openly, with 70 percent predicting that lifting the ban would have positive, mixed or no results. The officials spoke on condition of anonymity because the findings hadn't been released." http://broadcaster.msnbc.msn.com/t?ctl=2261F:B2CA5A050EF65E32C3F570FE5DDA7284&
The Hill: "President Obama on Monday proposed a two-year pay freeze for civilian federal workers, stealing a play from the Republican handbook in the process." http://broadcaster.msnbc.msn.com/t?ctl=22629:B2CA5A050EF65E32C3F570FE5DDA7284&
The AP adds, "Obama's move was an attempt to get in front of Republican plans to slash federal pay and the workforce next year, when they will flex more legislative muscle than now. It came a day ahead of Obama's meeting at the White House with both Republican and Democratic leaders -- his first with Republicans since the midterm elections -- and two days before the deadline for recommendations by his deficit-reduction commission." http://broadcaster.msnbc.msn.com/t?ctl=2262A:B2CA5A050EF65E32C3F570FE5DDA7284&

CONGRESS: A really lame duck
"Republicans and Democrats appear content to end the 111th Congress the way it started, by following a 'change' election with a round of fiercely partisan fighting over an agenda that even many Democrats have little interest in," Roll Call reports. "In fact, the House and Senate returned to Washington, D.C., on Monday for the lame duck with few solid details about what will be on their plates beyond partisanship." http://broadcaster.msnbc.msn.com/t?ctl=2262B:B2CA5A050EF65E32C3F570FE5DDA7284&
"Senate Republicans on Monday formally claimed President Obama's former Senate seat with the swearing-in of Sen. Mark Kirk (R-Ill.)," The Hill writes. http://broadcaster.msnbc.msn.com/t?ctl=2262C:B2CA5A050EF65E32C3F570FE5DDA7284&
The doc fix is in: "Congress agreed to a one-month delay in Medicare payment cuts to doctors yesterday, giving a short-term reprieve to a looming crisis over treatment of the nation's senior citizens," the AP says. http://broadcaster.msnbc.msn.com/t?ctl=2262D:B2CA5A050EF65E32C3F570FE5DDA7284&
"Rep. Charles Rangel returned to Capitol Hill yesterday to anxiously await a House vote on disciplinary action against him for ethics violations," the New York Post writes. "As early as today, the 80-year-old Harlem Democrat will face a vote on censure, the most severe punishment short of expulsion. The vote could come up anytime." http://broadcaster.msnbc.msn.com/t?ctl=2262E:B2CA5A050EF65E32C3F570FE5DDA7284&
"The latest trove of diplomatic cables released by WikiLeaks provides a rare glimpse into behind-the-scenes meetings Senator John F. Kerry has held with world leaders, offering a window on his style of diplomacy and providing an unvarnished view of his take on some of the United States' most formidable foreign policy problems," the Boston Globe writes. "While the cables do not differ dramatically from statements that Kerry, who is chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, has made publicly, they portray him as a statesman who is constantly seeking a middle ground and appearing to hold out hope that longtime foes of the United States -- such as Syria and Iran -- might be prodded into friendlier relations with the United States. Analysts, however, cautioned that Kerry's private conversations with foreign diplomats should not be taken as his unfiltered view on a subject, given that diplomatic exchanges are often geared toward finding common ground." http://broadcaster.msnbc.msn.com/t?ctl=2262F:B2CA5A050EF65E32C3F570FE5DDA7284&

GOP WATCH: Scarborough vs. Palin
Writing in Politico, MSNBC's Joe Scarborough argues, "Republicans have a problem. The most-talked-about figure in the GOP is a reality show star who cannot be elected. And yet the same leaders who fret that Sarah Palin could devastate their party in 2012 are too scared to say in public what they all complain about in private. Enough. It's time for the GOP to man up." http://broadcaster.msnbc.msn.com/t?ctl=22630:B2CA5A050EF65E32C3F570FE5DDA7284&
Chris Christie's $271 million IOU: "New Jersey owes the federal government more than $271 million after canceling a rail tunnel connecting the state with New York City, according to a debt notice obtained yesterday by the Associated Press. The letter from the Federal Transit Administration's chief financial officer to NJ Transit's executive director demands payment of $271,101,291 by Dec. 24. It's money the government wants New Jersey to repay for work done on the Hudson River tunnel before Governor Chris Christie, a Republican, terminated the project. The notification follows a warning letter earlier this month estimating the charges." More: "A Christie administration spokesman, Michael Drewniak, would not say yesterday whether the charge would be paid in full or disputed, or where New Jersey would get the money if it decides to repay the government or is found liable for all or part of the bill." http://broadcaster.msnbc.msn.com/t?ctl=22631:B2CA5A050EF65E32C3F570FE5DDA7284&
"Potential candidates for chairman of the Republican National Committee will take questions at a panel discussion in Washington, D.C., on Wednesday afternoon, and they'll be ranked on their humility, fairness and managerial skills, among other things," Roll Call reports. "The Republican National Conservative Caucus, a group of 26 RNC members, is organizing the panel, along with FreedomWorks, the group founded by former House Majority Leader Dick Armey (R-Texas). Former RNC Political Director Gentry Collins, former RNC Co-Chairwoman Ann Wagner, Connecticut Republican Party Chairman Chris Healy, former Michigan Republican Party Chairman Saul Anuzis and Maria Cino, the CEO of the 2008 Republican National Convention, have confirmed they'll participate in the panel, said caucus Chairman James Bopp Jr., a committeeman from Indiana." http://broadcaster.msnbc.msn.com/t?ctl=22632:B2CA5A050EF65E32C3F570FE5DDA7284&
"George W. Bush added a high-profile friend to his social network on Monday, trading jokes and compliments with Facebook founder Mark Zuckerberg in a live chat watched by nearly 7,000 viewers," the New York Daily News reports. http://broadcaster.msnbc.msn.com/t?ctl=22633:B2CA5A050EF65E32C3F570FE5DDA7284&
2010: Dayton picks up votes on first day of recount
MINNESOTA: The Minneapolis Star Tribune on the first day of the gubernatorial recount: "By day's end, more than 400 ballots were challenged, with the vast majority coming from Emmer's side. County officials declared half of those challenges 'frivolous,' meaning they remain in the current count but could get another look."
That said, "Dayton picked up 20 votes while Emmer lost four. Dayton now leads Emmer 43.6 percent to 43.2 percent -- a margin of 8,794 votes. Those numbers represent only a snapshot, since more than half of the state's ballots have yet to be recounted. Before the recount began, Dayton led Emmer by 8,770 votes." http://broadcaster.msnbc.msn.com/t?ctl=22634:B2CA5A050EF65E32C3F570FE5DDA7284&
NEW YORK: NY-1: "The fate of the nation's only remaining undecided congressional race will be submitted to a State Supreme Court judge in Riverhead today," Riverhead Local writes. "Lawyers for Tim Bishop (D) and Randy Altschuler (R) are scheduled to appear in the Riverhead courtroom of Judge Peter H. Mayer today to begin arguing over the more than 2,000 absentee ballots challenged by both candidates in the race for New York's First Congressional District." Bishop leads by 235 votes. http://broadcaster.msnbc.msn.com/t?ctl=22635:B2CA5A050EF65E32C3F570FE5DDA7284&
Stu Rothenberg wonders if the special election in May was a turning point and that Democrats misread the message of their win there. (But one could argue that May was a turning point because of other events -- namely, the BP spill and Greek debt crisis, which produced a summer of bad news for the White House.) http://broadcaster.msnbc.msn.com/t?ctl=22636:B2CA5A050EF65E32C3F570FE5DDA7284&
Nathan Gonzales: "For most of the election cycle, Democratic strategists were optimistic they could hold the House because of their arsenal of opposition research. But Democratic attacks failed to bring down enough Republican challengers to keep the majority." http://broadcaster.msnbc.msn.com/t?ctl=22637:B2CA5A050EF65E32C3F570FE5DDA7284&
2012: The Tea Party's next GOP targets?
"Sen. Patty Murray was buttonholed on the Senate floor Monday night by Democratic colleagues, many facing re-election in 2012, who urged her to lead Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee next year," Roll Call reports. "According to a Democratic Senate aide, a host of Members approached the Washington state lawmaker Monday night during a floor vote to encourage her to take over the DSCC next year." http://broadcaster.msnbc.msn.com/t?ctl=22638:B2CA5A050EF65E32C3F570FE5DDA7284&
FLORIDA: Former Rep. Mark Foley, who resigned after he was revealed to have sent male pages sexually charged internet messages, is seriously considering a bid for West Palm mayor, the Palm Beach Post reports. http://broadcaster.msnbc.msn.com/t?ctl=22639:B2CA5A050EF65E32C3F570FE5DDA7284&
MAINE: "There is a budding mystery along the northern border, where a local tea party leader insists a credible challenger has emerged to attack Maine Sen. Olympia Snowe from the right," Roll Call reports. "Just don't ask who it is." http://broadcaster.msnbc.msn.com/t?ctl=2263A:B2CA5A050EF65E32C3F570FE5DDA7284&
NEW HAMPSHIRE: "Former U.S. senator Rick Santorum visited New Hampshire Monday for the seventh time this year, laying the groundwork for a potential 2012 presidential bid," visiting the Manchester Rotary Club and a local Republican committee, the Manchester Union-Leader writes. http://broadcaster.msnbc.msn.com/t?ctl=2263B:B2CA5A050EF65E32C3F570FE5DDA7284&

"When the fall campaign began, New Hampshire was the bluest of states, the temptation almost irresistible to describe the political environment as being as blue as the skies in the Presidential Range. When it ended earlier this month, red skies of deep atmospheric change were everywhere," Real Clear Politics writes. "What this means for the national political picture is clear. The New Hampshire primary, for six decades the first in the country, will be conducted in an atmosphere that has been altered substantially." http://broadcaster.msnbc.msn.com/t?ctl=2263C:B2CA5A050EF65E32C3F570FE5DDA7284&

SOUTH CAROLINA: Wristbands will be handed out on Wednesday for Sarah Palin's book-signing stop in Columbia, The State reports. http://broadcaster.msnbc.msn.com/t?ctl=2263D:B2CA5A050EF65E32C3F570FE5DDA7284&
TEXAS: "Several Texas conservatives are vowing to make Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison (R-Texas) pay for her primary challenge to popular Republican Gov. Rick Perry," The Hill writes. "The four-term senator hasn't announced whether she'll run for reelection, but, no matter her decision, Tea Party activists are preparing to run their own candidates." http://broadcaster.msnbc.msn.com/t?ctl=2263E:B2CA5A050EF65E32C3F570FE5DDA7284&