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First Read: Senate uncertainty
From Chuck Todd, Mark Murray, Domenico Montanaro, and Ali Weinberg
FIRST THOUGHTS.
*** Senate uncertainty: So we know that the Senate today will pass the tax-cut deal (see below for more on that vote). But there's uncertainty over two other big items the chamber is currently considering: New START and the omnibus appropriations bill. Yesterday, GOP Sen. Jon Kyl said he "will work very hard" to ensure START's defeat if it's brought to the Senate floor this year. Kyl's reasoning, per NBC's Ken Strickland: He and several of his colleagues believe there is not enough time to thoroughly debate and possibly amend the treaty, and they prefer to take it up in the next Congress. As for the omnibus, Republicans are vowing to defeat it because the $1.2 trillion bill contains earmarks totaling $8 billion, the Washington Post says. "The American people said just 42 days ago, 'Enough!' … Are we tone deaf? Are we stricken with amnesia?" Sen. John McCain (R) said. The Post adds that the omnibus' fate is uncertain, "with a key test vote likely later in the week. The White House has not rallied behind the Democratic proposal." The reason the House passed a continuing resolution (C.R.) and not an omnibus is that they knew it was unlikely the Senate could get the omnibus through. http://broadcaster.msnbc.msn.com/t?ctl=25060:B2CA5A050EF65E32A4239FFC8B572B84&
*** Starting START: Despite Kyl's threat on New START, the Senate today will vote on whether to start debating on treaty, NBC's Strickland reports. Because treaties have "privileged" status under Senate rules, the vote to bring it to the floor cannot be filibustered, and therefore only needs a simple majority vote of 51 to succeed. But after it reaches the floor, ratification could be problematic and dramatic. There are indications from Senate floor staff that Republicans who oppose ratification this year might require the Senate clerks to read the entire treaty -- word for word -- once the legislation is on the floor. That could take more than a dozen hours, Strick is told. The "reading of the bill" (or in this case "the treaty") is always required under the rules. But in almost all cases, it's waived by senators as a practical matter since bills can be hundreds of pages long. But if even on senator objects, the bill must be read. Could be a wild day in the Senate. By the way, could Reid's strategy on START and omnibus be simply, "You can't kill both." So kill omnibus; we'll give you the C.R. But give us a START vote?
*** Tax endgame in the Senate: At noon this morning, Strick adds, the Senate will begin a series of votes that will ultimately lead to the passage of tax-cuts bill. There will be three votes that will attempt to change the bill, followed by the vote for passage of the tax bill itself. The votes to amend the bill -- proposed by the legislation's staunchest opponents (Republicans Tom Coburn and Jim DeMint and independent Bernie Sanders) -- are expected to fail. The vote for passage, which sends the bill to House, should happen about 1:00 pm ET and pass with overwhelming bipartisan support. Indeed, NBC's Kelly O'Donnell notes that Ohio Sen. Sherrod Brown (D), who voted against the procedural vote on Monday, says he will support the final measure today.
*** And the endgame in the House: And what's the status of the tax deal in the House? It's not all that clear. Per NBC's Shawna Thomas, last night's House Democratic caucus meeting was a lot like last week's without the dramatic special guest (Vice President Biden). Members were standing up, airing their opinions about the bill and talking about the specific things they want changed. Apparently, the leadership spent most of their time listening and not a lot of time presenting choices to their caucus. Speaker Nancy Pelosi left fairly early on to attend a service for the recently deceased Richard Holbrooke. "I would say that the leadership has not fully expressed their opinion yet," Rep. Peter DeFazio (D-OR) said. But Rep. Henry Waxman (D-CA) seemed to echo the message of "urgency" that Majority Leader Steny Hoyer spoke about earlier on Tuesday. "In the end of the day I think we're going to have to pass a bill," Waxman said. "That's the view of many of us."
*** Poll day: How does the American public view the tax deal? What about New START? And what about President Obama's standing and his 2012 re-election prospects? Well, beginning at 6:30 pm ET, tune into NBC's "Nightly News," or click on to MSNBC.com, for the answers in our brand-new NBC/WSJ poll.
*** Thune's shot at Romney? A day after Mitt Romney penned an op-ed opposing the tax deal, GOP Sen. John Thune -- who voted to end the filibuster on the legislation earlier this week, and who might run for president -- took a shot at critics of the deal. "It is easy to stand on the sidelines and criticize this deal," Thune said, per CNN. "And it would perhaps be politically expedient to stand on the sideline and criticize this tax deal. But to advocate against this tax deal is to advocate for a tax increase." http://broadcaster.msnbc.msn.com/t?ctl=25061:B2CA5A050EF65E32A4239FFC8B572B84&
*** National Review's shot at Steele: Speaking of taking shots, National Review is running an editorial blasting RNC Chairman Michael Steele's bid for a second term and calling for "Anybody but Steele" to replace him. In 2012, National Review argues, it will be "crucial that every GOP institution be running on all cylinders. For all the Herculean work of the outside groups, there are certain tasks for which only the party committee is suited, given its ability to coordinate with state parties. If nothing else, the subpar reputation the RNC has earned under Steele's leadership will make it impossible for the committee to work at its optimum." More: Steele's poor performance as chairman has had one fortunate side effect — it has created a robust field of alternatives. It gives us no pleasure to say this, but none of them would be worse than Steele, and we believe any of them would be better. Someone else deserves a chance at the top of the RNC." http://broadcaster.msnbc.msn.com/t?ctl=25062:B2CA5A050EF65E32A4239FFC8B572B84&
*** Crossroads back on the air: Politico yesterday reported that the Rove-backed Crossroads GPS -- the entity that can keep its donors anonymous -- is airing $400,000 in radio ads in 12 congressional districts that Democrats barely won to put pressure on the Dems to back to tax-cut deal. Example: "[W]hose side is Congressman Tim Bishop on? Will he side with Nancy Pelosi to raise job-killing taxes, or with struggling families and the small businesses that can create the jobs we need?" But why is Crossroads GPS airing ads on something (the tax deal) that seems like a sure thing? And why is it targeting Democrats who will most likely vote for it? One theory: Crossroads GPS is a 501(c) organization. That designation allows it to keep its donors anonymous, but the law says that these non-profits' primary purpose can't be in express-advocacy politics (i.e., vote for or against a candidate). One way around this is for a non-profit to keep its express-advocacy spending below 50% of total expenditures. And that's where these legislative-advocacy radio ads come in. http://broadcaster.msnbc.msn.com/t?ctl=25063:B2CA5A050EF65E32A4239FFC8B572B84&
*** Crossroads' response: But Crossroads spokesman Jonathan Collegio responds to First Read that these radio ads are about getting the tax deal across the finish line. "The ad urges the members named to demand that Pelosi holds a vote on the package before tax rates jump on January 1," Collegio said. "It's not enough to passively oppose a massive tax hike -- the only way the legislation will come to the floor is if these members stand up to Pelosi and demand a vote on this thing. That's why we're running the spots."
*** Obama's day: At 9:15 am ET, the president will make a statement to the press before he meets with prominent business leaders at the Blair House 15 minutes later.
*** Interviewing Biden: NBC's Andrea Mitchell today interviews Vice President Biden, and a portion of the interview will air on NBC's "Nightly News" and MSNBC today. The entire interview will air on MSNBC's "Andrea Mitchell Reports" tomorrow.
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CONGRESS: It's beginning to look a lot like work near Christmas
"Attempts to wrap up a bitterly contentious session of Congress fell into disarray Tuesday as Republicans vowed to filibuster a one-year spending bill and Democratic infighting threatened to sink the White House's tax cut deal," Roll Call writes. "By late Tuesday night, the only thing that seemed certain was that Congress will, for the second year in a row, be in session the week of Christmas." http://broadcaster.msnbc.msn.com/t?ctl=25067:B2CA5A050EF65E32A4239FFC8B572B84&
"The Senate will wrap up work on President Barack Obama's tax cut deal Wednesday and begin debate on the new Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty, punting an ugly fight over a one-year spending bill until Thursday night," Roll Call writes. http://broadcaster.msnbc.msn.com/t?ctl=25068:B2CA5A050EF65E32A4239FFC8B572B84&
Democrats yesterday said there are enough votes to ratify START. "Asked directly yesterday if at least 67 senators will vote to ratify START, Senate majority leader Harry Reid was definitive: 'Yes,'" the Boston Globe writes. But: "Senator Jon Kyl of Arizona, who has led the opposition, suggested that Reid's ambitions are too grand for the lame-duck session, which had been scheduled to end this Friday. 'It is impossible to do all of the things that the majority leader laid out . . . without disrespecting the institution and without disrespecting one of the two holiest of holidays for Christians and the families of all of the Senate, not just the senators themselves but all of the staff,' Kyl said yesterday."
More Reid: "Christmas is a week from Saturday. I understand that," he said at a press conference. "But I hope the Republicans understand it also, because we are going to complete our work no matter how long it takes in this Congress." http://broadcaster.msnbc.msn.com/t?ctl=25069:B2CA5A050EF65E32A4239FFC8B572B84&
(Let's be clear: the only reason START is being dealt with so late in the lame-duck session is because Republicans wrote a letter vowing to filibuster anything until taxes and funding the government were resolved.)
The Senate is expected to vote today on the tax compromise. And then it moves to the House. http://broadcaster.msnbc.msn.com/t?ctl=2506A:B2CA5A050EF65E32A4239FFC8B572B84&
The Hill's whip count shows 72 House Democrats are "firm no" on the tax bill, 11 are "leaning no," and just 20 are "firm yes" and four are "leaning yes;" Five Republicans also say they are "firm or likely no," including Michele Bachmann, Jason Chaffetz, Jeff Flake, Steve King, and Mike Pence. http://broadcaster.msnbc.msn.com/t?ctl=2506B:B2CA5A050EF65E32A4239FFC8B572B84&
"Senate Democrats have filed a $1.1 trillion omnibus spending bill that would fund the government through fiscal year 2011, according to Senate GOP sources," The Hill reports. Thune came out sharply against it, but Minority Leader Mitch McConnell and others are considering voting in favor of the bill. http://broadcaster.msnbc.msn.com/t?ctl=2506C:B2CA5A050EF65E32A4239FFC8B572B84&
The Washington Post says the omnibus' "fate was uncertain Tuesday, with a key test vote likely later in the week. The White House has not rallied behind the Democratic proposal. President Obama grew to oppose earmarks when he was a senator and he chided Congress when he signed a similarly massive spending bill in March 2009." http://broadcaster.msnbc.msn.com/t?ctl=25060:B2CA5A050EF65E32A4239FFC8B572B84&
Speaker-in-waiting John Boehner wants President Obama to veto the omnibus. http://broadcaster.msnbc.msn.com/t?ctl=2506D:B2CA5A050EF65E32A4239FFC8B572B84&
Dana Milbank lobs this grenade in the opening of his latest column: "Dear Tea Party voter: You've been had." He notes Kristi Noem (R-SD) -- and 13 other freshmen Republicans -- hiring a lobbyist as to run their offices and hob-nobbing with them as a guest of honor at a recent reception. More: "It was probably inevitable that the Tea Party activists would be betrayed, but the speed with which congressional Republicans have reverted to business-as-usual has been impressive. House Republican leaders rejected a Tea Party-backed candidate as the new chairman of the House Appropriations Committee, instead installing Hal Rogers of Kentucky, who is known as the 'Prince of Pork' and who once said pork is a 'bad word for making good things happen.'" http://broadcaster.msnbc.msn.com/t?ctl=2506E:B2CA5A050EF65E32A4239FFC8B572B84&
With Roy Blunt moving to the Senate, Majority Leader Steny Hoyer is trying to bolster his across-the-aisle relationships with the new leadership team, Roll Call writes. http://broadcaster.msnbc.msn.com/t?ctl=2506F:B2CA5A050EF65E32A4239FFC8B572B84&
OBAMA AGENDA: Aloha?
President Obama will delay his annual trip to his birth state of Hawaii in order to sign the tax bill. http://broadcaster.msnbc.msn.com/t?ctl=25070:B2CA5A050EF65E32A4239FFC8B572B84&
The New York Times's Leonhardt notes that conservatives' political attacks against the health-care law are similar to the conservatives' (unsuccessful) crusades against Medicare, Social Security, and other expansions of the safety net. http://broadcaster.msnbc.msn.com/t?ctl=25071:B2CA5A050EF65E32A4239FFC8B572B84&
Rahm Emanuel, President Obama's former chief of staff, testified yesterday about his wife's wedding dress, family china, and car registrations to prove that he meets a residency requirement to run for mayor of Chicago," the AP writes, adding, "The Emanuels left china, photo albums, and the dress at their Chicago home when they moved to Washington in 2009, he said. He can't live in the house while exploring a mayoral bid because he hasn't been able to persuade the tenant in his 2,719-square-foot home to move out before the lease expires in June." http://broadcaster.msnbc.msn.com/t?ctl=25072:B2CA5A050EF65E32A4239FFC8B572B84&
GOP WATCH: No mandate for Republicans?
The Washington Post's write-up of its new Post/ABC poll: "The midterm elections - in which Republicans gained 63 seats to take control of the House and added six seats to their Senate minority - were widely seen as a rebuke to President Obama. Still, the public trusts Obama marginally more than they do congressional Republicans to deal with the country's main problems in the coming years, 43 percent to 38 percent. The poll suggests that the election, while perhaps a vote against the status quo, was not a broad mandate for Republicans and their plans. The survey also underscores the degree to which Americans are conflicted about who they think is setting the agenda in Washington." http://broadcaster.msnbc.msn.com/t?ctl=25073:B2CA5A050EF65E32A4239FFC8B572B84&
Steele watch: "Senate Republicans unhappy with the leadership of the Republican National Committee are quietly pushing for change in the wake of Chairman Michael Steele opting to run for a second term," Roll Call reports. "Congressional Republicans have little influence over the RNC leadership elections. That factor, and a desire to avoid inserting the heavy hand of Washington into a contest mostly decided by 168 RNC committee members in the states, has led many Senate Republicans to keep out of the debate over Steele. But two key Senate Republicans on Tuesday expressed what many in their Conference have been feeling throughout the chairman's controversial two-year tenure" – Jim DeMint and John Thune.
http://broadcaster.msnbc.msn.com/t?ctl=25074:B2CA5A050EF65E32A4239FFC8B572B84&
"Iowa's Republican National Committee delegation is divided in the race for the GOP's national chairman," the Des Moines Register writes. "On Monday, state Chairman Matt Strawn said he was supporting former Iowan Gentry Collins, who resigned as the RNC's national political director last month. Today, Iowa's Republican National Committeeman Steve Scheffler said Tuesday he was for Wisconsin Republican Party Chairman Reince Priebus in the RNC chairmanship race." http://broadcaster.msnbc.msn.com/t?ctl=25075:B2CA5A050EF65E32A4239FFC8B572B84&
2012: The tax-cut rift
The Wall Street Journal examines the rift between prospective presidential candidates created by the tax cut debate: "In opposing the deal, Ms. Palin and Mr. Romney are aligning themselves with several large tea-party groups that see the tax deal as a betrayal of the Republican Party's pledge during the last election to slash spending and attack the deficit… Those supporting the deal [Gingrich, Huckabee, Pawlenty] reflect a wider Republican sentiment: that any tax cut is good and should be embraced, even if it is part of a bill that causes heartburn on other fronts." http://broadcaster.msnbc.msn.com/t?ctl=25076:B2CA5A050EF65E32A4239FFC8B572B84&
Hot Air's AllahPundit notes, "Paul Ryan, Grover Norquist, and Freedom Works are in favor of the deal, but a whole lot of conservative rock stars on the right are now against it -- from Pence to Palin to Bachmann to talk radio to grassroots outfits like the Tea Party Patriots. How many House liberals are willing to bite the bullet and vote yes for Obama's sake to replace defecting votes on the GOP side?" http://broadcaster.msnbc.msn.com/t?ctl=25077:B2CA5A050EF65E32A4239FFC8B572B84&
BARBOUR: "The state has launched the "Broadband for Mississippi" website, Gov. Haley Barbour said Monday, part of a federally funded effort to increase Internet access in Mississippi, which ranks last in the nation," the Biloxi-Gulfport SunHerald writes. http://broadcaster.msnbc.msn.com/t?ctl=25078:B2CA5A050EF65E32A4239FFC8B572B84&
PALIN: In a new poll to be released today by EMILY's List, "Eighty percent of the women tested in the poll favored the president in a contest against Palin, while just 10 percent said they'd support the former GOP vice presidential candidate." http://broadcaster.msnbc.msn.com/t?ctl=25079:B2CA5A050EF65E32A4239FFC8B572B84&
GOP 12's Christian Heinze on Palin's announcement that she will do an interview with ABC's Robin Roberts: "The Roberts interview is another sign she's thinking about trying to reach indies that have, so far, rejected her. Winning their favor right now matters, because even though indies don't (usually) vote in GOP primaries, Palin has to start selling Republicans on her electability." http://broadcaster.msnbc.msn.com/t?ctl=2507A:B2CA5A050EF65E32A4239FFC8B572B84&
"A new political fund-raising group called 'Draft Sarah Palin' registered with the Federal Election Commission this month, federal records indicate, and the committee's treasurer has a history of big-time fund-raising," the Center for Responsive Politics reports. http://broadcaster.msnbc.msn.com/t?ctl=2507B:B2CA5A050EF65E32A4239FFC8B572B84&
PAWLENTY: Minnesota public unions are hitting back at Pawlenty. http://broadcaster.msnbc.msn.com/t?ctl=2507C:B2CA5A050EF65E32A4239FFC8B572B84&
Merry Christmas, Iowa. Pawlenty is sending out Christmas cards to Iowa Republicans, including Craig Robinson, the former Iowa GOP political director who now runs The Iowa Republican Web site. http://broadcaster.msnbc.msn.com/t?ctl=2507D:B2CA5A050EF65E32A4239FFC8B572B84&
PENCE: Put Mike Pence in the "no" column with Mitt Romney and Sarah Palin on the tax deal. http://broadcaster.msnbc.msn.com/t?ctl=2506B:B2CA5A050EF65E32A4239FFC8B572B84&
"A possible House vote on the tax cut compromise between President Barack Obama and congressional Republicans could derail a trip by Rep. Mike Pence to South Carolina Wednesday," CNN writes. http://broadcaster.msnbc.msn.com/t?ctl=2507E:B2CA5A050EF65E32A4239FFC8B572B84&
THUNE: "South Dakota Sen. John Thune took a veiled swipe at Mitt Romney on the Senate floor Tuesday, saying it's 'easy' and 'possibly even politically expedient to stand on the sidelines and criticize' the tax cut proposal backed by President Obama and GOP congressional leaders," Politico writes. http://broadcaster.msnbc.msn.com/t?ctl=2507F:B2CA5A050EF65E32A4239FFC8B572B84&
The Hill also picks up on Thune's speech as a shot at Romney and Palin. http://broadcaster.msnbc.msn.com/t?ctl=25080:B2CA5A050EF65E32A4239FFC8B572B84&
NEW HAMPSHIRE: "The New Hampshire Union Leader, WMUR-TV and CNN announced they will host the first primary debate in the first primary state on June 7, 2011 in Manchester," the Wall Street Journal writes. "That is a remarkably late start by 2008 campaign standards, but the Republican hopefuls appear to be keeping their powder dry." http://broadcaster.msnbc.msn.com/t?ctl=25081:B2CA5A050EF65E32A4239FFC8B572B84&
2010: Resolved in January?
ALASKA: "Alaska should have a U.S. senator in place by the time Congress convenes in early January, even if all of the legal wrangling between the two rivals contesting the seat isn't resolved by then, a federal judge said Tuesday," AP writes. "U.S. District Judge Ralph Beistline said in a written order that certification of the race between Republicans Joe Miller and Sen. Lisa Murkowski doesn't necessarily mean the end of the court battle. He said it's possible that the certification could be revoked if it was done in error and suggested the sides submit legal briefings on that issue." http://broadcaster.msnbc.msn.com/t?ctl=25082:B2CA5A050EF65E32A4239FFC8B572B84&
Read full story:
http://broadcaster.msnbc.msn.com/t?ctl=25083:B2CA5A050EF65E32A4239FFC8B572B84&
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