First Thoughts: Done Deal?

First Read from NBC News
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First Thoughts: Done Deal?

From Chuck Todd, Mark Murray, Domenico Montanaro, and Ali Weinberg

FIRST THOUGHTS.
*** Done deal? Today's New York Times reports that the Obama White House and Senate Republicans are closing in on a deal to temporarily extend the Bush tax cuts for all income levels -- for two years perhaps? -- in return for also extending jobless benefits and the Obama middle- class tax cuts from the 2009 stimulus. The deal could happen this week. As NBC's Savannah Guthrie noted on "TODAY," senior administration officials said President Obama has threatened to oppose even a temporary extension of the Bush tax cuts unless unemployment benefits and other target tax cuts are also included. And it appears that Senate Republicans are more than open to that deal. "I think we will extend unemployment compensation," Senate GOP Leader Mitch McConnell said on "Meet the Press" yesterday. By the way, the deal appears to be more done than folks realize, but the issue continues to be the White House selling it to congressional Democrats, which will take place tomorrow on Capitol Hill when the parties hold their caucus meetings. http://broadcaster.msnbc.msn.com/t?ctl=233FA:B2CA5A050EF65E32ACC42DD6352B88B1& and http://broadcaster.msnbc.msn.com/t?ctl=233FB:B2CA5A050EF65E32ACC42DD6352B88B1&

*** How we got here: So how did we get to the point where Obama is about to break one of his biggest campaign promises in extending the Bush tax cuts for the wealthy? First, the votes weren't there for Democrats. On Saturday, Senate Republicans -- assisted by a handful of Democrats -- filibustered two amendments that would have 1) extended the Bush tax cuts only for those making less than $250,000 and 2) extended them for those making less than $1 million. And if Democrats don't have the votes now, they certainly won't have them next year when the next Congress convenes. Second, the employment situation is worse off than anyone would have expected a year ago, and that has put an enormous amount of pressure on Democrats not to change the current tax policy, even if the facts don't necessarily fit the narrative that tax cuts create jobs. If the economy was creating 200,000 to 300,000 jobs per month -- instead of the 39,000 in November -- Democrats would have a stronger argument to let the cuts expire. Now? "We don't want to take actions this year that will affect this year's spending and this year's taxes in a way that will hurt the recovery," Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke said last night on "60 Minutes." http://broadcaster.msnbc.msn.com/t?ctl=233FC:B2CA5A050EF65E32ACC42DD6352B88B1&

*** Fighting vs. getting things done: Of course, as Paul Krugman advises, President Obama could draw a line in the sand and threaten to veto any legislation that cuts taxes for the wealthy -- either in this lame duck or next year. But in addition to opening himself up to the charge of raising taxes in a struggling economy, that action would also imperil all the other items on Obama's to-do list: jobless benefits, "Don't Ask, Don't Tell" repeal, and ratification of New START. A question for Democrats: Would getting those priorities through the lame duck be worth caving in on the Bush tax cuts? On Sunday, Indiana GOP Sen. Dick Lugar said the votes are there to pass New START. And on Friday, GOP Sen. Scott Brown said he backs DADT repeal, which improves the likelihood of that happening. And then there's this: Is December -- when few Americans are really paying attention -- really the time to draw a line in the sand and fight? http://broadcaster.msnbc.msn.com/t?ctl=233FD:B2CA5A050EF65E32ACC42DD6352B88B1& http://broadcaster.msnbc.msn.com/t?ctl=233FE:B2CA5A050EF65E32ACC42DD6352B88B1& and http://broadcaster.msnbc.msn.com/t?ctl=233FF:B2CA5A050EF65E32ACC42DD6352B88B1&

*** Why didn't congressional Democrats work on this six months ago? Here's another question for Democrats, especially those on Capitol Hill who are upset that they seem to be caving in on the Bush tax cuts: Why didn't they work on this last spring/summer, when they might have had a stronger hand to play? As the Times says, "In meetings with administration officials after the Senate votes, the House speaker, Nancy Pelosi, and many other House and Senate Democrats voiced deep unhappiness at the prospect of extending all the tax cuts and also expressed their belief that the White House did not appear to be getting enough for such a big concession." It was the Capitol Hill Dem leadership -- more than the White House -- that pushed for putting off any votes on the Bush tax cuts. At the time, it was about trying to insulate some vulnerable Democrats from votes on taxes. Talk about short-sighted leadership decisions. http://broadcaster.msnbc.msn.com/t?ctl=233FA:B2CA5A050EF65E32ACC42DD6352B88B1&

*** Bigger than the stimulus? And here's something to chew on: Extending the Bush tax cuts for two years -- along with extending jobless benefits and targeted tax cuts -- would likely cost more (approximately $1 trillion) than the stimulus cost (approximately $800 billion). Here's our back-of-envelope math arriving at the $1 trillion approximation: If the price tag of extending the Bush tax cuts over 10 years is nearly $4 trillion, then doing it for two years is some $800 billion. And extending the jobless benefits and targeted tax cuts raises that price tag even higher.

*** Obama's day: Today, at 12:20 pm ET, President Obama gives a speech on the economy in Winston-Salem, NC.

*** The end is near in Minnesota: "The first stage of Minnesota's gubernatorial recount ended Friday as Hennepin County finished hand tallying roughly 470,000 ballots cast on Election Day and joined the state's other 86 counties in taking a breather before the State Canvassing Board meets this week," Minnesota Daily writes. "Republican Tom Emmer still trails DFL opponent Mark Dayton by 8,675 votes." http://broadcaster.msnbc.msn.com/t?ctl=23400:B2CA5A050EF65E32ACC42DD6352B88B1&

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OBAMA AGENDA: Getting close
The New York Times front-pages, "White House officials and Congressional Republicans said Sunday they were closing in on a deal to temporarily continue the Bush-era tax cuts at all income levels, while bitterly frustrated Democratic Congressional leaders began exploring whether they would have the votes for such a package. A day after the Senate rejected President Obama's preferred tax plan, officials said the broad contours of a compromise were in focus." http://broadcaster.msnbc.msn.com/t?ctl=233FA:B2CA5A050EF65E32ACC42DD6352B88B1&
The Washington Post: "The Senate Republican leadership telegraphed on the Sunday morning talk shows that a compromise to extend unemployment compensation and the George W. Bush-era tax cuts is in the offing. Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) and Sen. Jon Kyl (Ariz.), the Republican whip, told different interviewers that they expect Congress to vote for the tax cuts, which have been in effect for a decade, to continue unaltered for at least several years in exchange for an agreement to extend jobless benefits that are about to expire for millions of workers." http://broadcaster.msnbc.msn.com/t?ctl=23404:B2CA5A050EF65E32ACC42DD6352B88B1&
"Their political options limited, Democrats and Republicans appeared to unite yesterday behind the outlines of an economic package that would temporarily extend expiring tax rates for all taxpayers as well as jobless benefits for millions of Americans," per the AP. http://broadcaster.msnbc.msn.com/t?ctl=23405:B2CA5A050EF65E32ACC42DD6352B88B1&
"President Barack Obama on Saturday praised a newly sealed trade deal with South Korea as a landmark agreement that promises to boost the domestic auto industry and support tens of thousands of American jobs," the New York Daily News says. http://broadcaster.msnbc.msn.com/t?ctl=23406:B2CA5A050EF65E32ACC42DD6352B88B1&
For the first time in his presidency, Obama issued pardons – nine of them: "Four of the cases involved cocaine possession or distribution, while other charges included adultery, a liquor-law violation, writing bad checks and illegal possession of government property," the New York Post writes. White House spokesman Reid Cherlin: "The president was moved by the strength of the applicants' post-conviction efforts at atonement, as well as their superior citizenship and individual achievements." http://broadcaster.msnbc.msn.com/t?ctl=23407:B2CA5A050EF65E32ACC42DD6352B88B1&
The Hill: "President Obama on Sunday night paid tribute to Beatles singer Paul McCartney, talk-show icon Oprah Winfrey and acclaimed country music icon Merle Haggard, among others, as the newest honorees by the Kennedy Center." http://broadcaster.msnbc.msn.com/t?ctl=23408:B2CA5A050EF65E32ACC42DD6352B88B1&

CONGRESS: START of a beautiful friendship?
"Key Senate Republicans reflected divisions in the party yesterday over ratifying a new treaty with Russia to reduce nuclear weapons before year-end," the Boston Globe writes, adding that Sen. Richard "Lugar told CNN he believed there was 'strong bipartisan support' for a lame-duck vote and that he thinks 'the votes are there.' But he said Democrats would first have to deal with GOP demands that Bush-era income tax cuts be extended and that legislation is passed to fund government spending in the current federal fiscal year." http://broadcaster.msnbc.msn.com/t?ctl=23409:B2CA5A050EF65E32ACC42DD6352B88B1&
"Senator Charles Schumer is seeking to make it illegal for anyone to distribute or record the revealing images produced by full-body scanners at airports," AP writes. "The New York Democrat introduced a bill yesterday that would set penalties of up to a year in prison and fines up to $100,000, or both." http://broadcaster.msnbc.msn.com/t?ctl=2340A:B2CA5A050EF65E32ACC42DD6352B88B1&
To DREAM the impossible DREAM: "The DREAM Act -- a priority of Democrats in both Congress and the White House -- faces a difficult future in the lame duck," The Hill writes. "Even as Democrats in both chambers prepare to consider the measure this week, Republicans and moderate Democrats are already lining up to shoot it down." http://broadcaster.msnbc.msn.com/t?ctl=2340B:B2CA5A050EF65E32ACC42DD6352B88B1&
"A Republican senator is planning on introducing legislation this week that would allow state officials to challenge federal regulations before they go into effect," The Hill adds. "Sen. Roger Wicker (R-Miss.) told The Hill that his states' rights bill is in large part a reaction to Democrats' healthcare reform law… The proposed law could also be used to challenge other regulations, such as those from the Environmental Protection Agency, he added." http://broadcaster.msnbc.msn.com/t?ctl=2340C:B2CA5A050EF65E32ACC42DD6352B88B1&
"Congressional Democrats say they need the support of just one more Senate Republican in a last-ditch effort to pass federal health benefits for police and firefighters stricken by illnesses allegedly from Ground Zero dust," the New York Post reports. "The $7.4 billion bill could go to the Senate floor as early as Wednesday, and New York lawmakers are scrambling to secure the Republican support needed to pass it." http://broadcaster.msnbc.msn.com/t?ctl=2340D:B2CA5A050EF65E32ACC42DD6352B88B1&
The AP: "US Representative Charles Rangel returned to his home turf in the city's Harlem neighborhood yesterday, saying he still loves Congress, despite a showdown with colleagues over ethics violations that led to his censure by the House."
And is this the new standard? Rangel added, "I was not found guilty of corruption, I did not go to bed with kids, I did not hurt the House speaker, I did not start a revolution against the United States of America, I did not steal any money, I did not take any bribes and that is abundantly clear." http://broadcaster.msnbc.msn.com/t?ctl=2340E:B2CA5A050EF65E32ACC42DD6352B88B1&
The New York Daily News says Rangel was greeted with a standing ovation in Harlem. http://broadcaster.msnbc.msn.com/t?ctl=2340F:B2CA5A050EF65E32ACC42DD6352B88B1&
He called the censure "an embarrassing and painful experience," and added on CNN, per the New York Daily News: "I tell you, individually, whether it's Republicans or Democrats, they knew what I had done did not reach the level of a censure." http://broadcaster.msnbc.msn.com/t?ctl=23410:B2CA5A050EF65E32ACC42DD6352B88B1& and http://broadcaster.msnbc.msn.com/t?ctl=23411:B2CA5A050EF65E32ACC42DD6352B88B1&

GOP WATCH: Enter Priebus?
"Reince Priebus, the Republican National Committee's top legal counsel, resigned his position early Sunday morning, The Hotline has learned, a move that will be widely interpreted as a major step toward running for chairman of the organization and a big blow to current chairman Michael Steele. Priebus, the chairman of the Wisconsin Republican Party, was once Steele's closest ally on the committee. Priebus pushed to elect Steele in 2009, and in the two years since has served as Steele's conduit with committee members." http://broadcaster.msnbc.msn.com/t?ctl=23412:B2CA5A050EF65E32ACC42DD6352B88B1&
2012: Make or break
FLORIDA: Veep watch? "Sen.-elect Marco Rubio (Fla.) was one of the many Republicans who won in November because of voter disgust with 'business as usual' in Washington, D.C. Now, Rubio and other incoming Members have turned to K Street insiders to help pay off their campaign debts," Roll Call reports. http://broadcaster.msnbc.msn.com/t?ctl=23413:B2CA5A050EF65E32ACC42DD6352B88B1&
IOWA: The Des Moines Register publishes a "list of Iowans who can make or break a GOP presidential candidate;" fifty operatives, activists, officials, issue advocates and members of the media whom presidential prospects will likely call on as they prepare for the Iowa caucuses. http://broadcaster.msnbc.msn.com/t?ctl=23414:B2CA5A050EF65E32ACC42DD6352B88B1&

NEW HAMPSHIRE: "Former U.S. Senate candidate Ovide Lamontagne says his new Granite Oath PAC will eventually endorse a candidate for the 2012 Republican presidential nomination race, but he said he and his PAC are uncommitted at this point," although Lamontagne backed Mitt Romney in the 2008 presidential primary campaign, the Manchester Union-Leader says. http://broadcaster.msnbc.msn.com/t?ctl=23415:B2CA5A050EF65E32ACC42DD6352B88B1&

NEW JERSEY: Weeds: Gov. Chris "Christie backed off on several of his key objections to [a medical marijuana] law -- backed by Trenton Dems and signed by his predecessor, Jon Corzine -- including one that allows terminally ill patients easier access to pot." http://broadcaster.msnbc.msn.com/t?ctl=23416:B2CA5A050EF65E32ACC42DD6352B88B1&
SOUTH CAROLINA: The State's political blog The Buzz says that some top South Carolina Republicans weighed in on presidential candidates last week. "Gov.-elect Nikki Haley said she plans to endorse a Republican candidate in South Carolina's pivotal first-in-the-South primary. Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin endorsed Haley. Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney gave Haley's campaign $60,000. So The Buzz eagerly will be awaiting word on which Haley backs… U.S. Sen. Jim DeMint spoke highly of Indiana U.S. Rep. Mike Pence and said he'd be a good presidential candidate." http://broadcaster.msnbc.msn.com/t?ctl=23417:B2CA5A050EF65E32ACC42DD6352B88B1&

"South Carolina Tea Party groups are trying to build a coordinated, statewide network of activists," The State reports. "About 30 groups – or roughly half of the state's self-titled liberty movement – met in Columbia on Saturday to discuss a formal affiliation with the national Tea Party Patriots organization. Local groups would be free to set their own agendas but would have access to the national group's research, advice and resources – such as its weekly Monday conference calls." http://broadcaster.msnbc.msn.com/t?ctl=23418:B2CA5A050EF65E32ACC42DD6352B88B1&

Sarah Palin's book-signing stop in South Carolina on Friday sounded a lot like her other stops so far, according to the Charleston Post and Courier's description. "As country music played over the loudspeaker, Palin greeted most everyone with a 'Hi there! What's your name?' Interactions were limited. The guests weren't allowed to take pictures and Palin would only sign her name, not a personal message. Reporters were able to photograph Palin but could not ask any questions."

2010: The GOP's "poor choices"
Lindsey Graham, who is not loved by the right wing, said in a floor speech on Sunday: "The House had a dramatic election. We picked up seats in the Senate. Some of us thought, maybe we could pick up two or three more, but we made some pretty poor choices when it came to candidates." http://broadcaster.msnbc.msn.com/t?ctl=23419:B2CA5A050EF65E32ACC42DD6352B88B1&
ALASKA: The Alaska Dispatch suggests several motivations that may be driving Republican Senate nominee Joe Miller's legal challenge to Sen. Lisa Murkowski's write-in victory. "Political analysts agree the various motives -- principle, image, weakening Murkowski, money -- are plausible, but don't think they're all wise undertakings. The balancing act between hurting your enemy and hurting yourself is one they're not convinced will work to Miller's advantage." http://broadcaster.msnbc.msn.com/t?ctl=2341A:B2CA5A050EF65E32ACC42DD6352B88B1&
CALIFORNIA: CA-11: "California Republican David Harmer has officially conceded defeat to Rep. Jerry McNerney (D-Calif.) more than a month after Election Day," The Hill writes. "McNerney was declared the winner by the AP over a week ago and had already pronounced himself the victor, but it wasn't until late Friday that Harmer actually phoned the Democrat to concede." http://broadcaster.msnbc.msn.com/t?ctl=2341B:B2CA5A050EF65E32ACC42DD6352B88B1&
MINNESOTA: "The first stage of Minnesota's gubernatorial recount ended Friday as Hennepin County finished hand tallying roughly 470,000 ballots cast on Election Day and joined the state's other 86 counties in taking a breather before the State Canvassing Board meets this week," Minnesota Daily reports. "Republican Tom Emmer still trails DFL opponent Mark Dayton by 8,675 votes… The board is scheduled to finish reviewing challenged ballots Friday and is set to declare the election Dec. 14." http://broadcaster.msnbc.msn.com/t?ctl=2341C:B2CA5A050EF65E32ACC42DD6352B88B1&
NEW YORK: NY-1: In the lone House race not yet called, Newsday writes, "[E]lections officials opened another batch of previously contested paper ballots Friday in the close race between Democratic U.S. Rep. Tim Bishop and his Republican challenger, Randy Altschuler. After the most recent count was completed at midday, Bishop held a 271-vote edge, his spokesman said, while the Altschuler campaign said the Bishop lead was 264. However, more than 1,400 paper ballots remain to be counted." http://broadcaster.msnbc.msn.com/t?ctl=2341D:B2CA5A050EF65E32ACC42DD6352B88B1&